Thursday, Sep 21st

CLV Early May Targets

Written By :: Mike Johnson

Closing line value (CLV) is a term used in the gambling world to describe when someone places a wager on an event with a specific spread or line and that number subsequently shifts in the direction of the side the person chose. For instance, a bettor who places a wager on a football team at a spread of +8 has gained two points of CLV if the game closes with that team having a line of only +6. For Best Ball purposes, CLV relates to where someone selects a player and the average draft position (ADP) of that player when the contest closes. There has been a lot of research done across the industry that shows the dramatic impact CLV has on the expected advancement rate and expected value from rosters in Best Ball tournaments. With this in mind, I will be periodically providing you with this article where I discuss the players at different points in the draft whom I expect to provide the most CLV at that specific moment in time.

Rounds 1-2

Tony Pollard, RB, DAL: Pollard is being drafted in the middle to late second round right now, but realistically could end with an ADP around the 1st/2nd round turn by September. Pollard is incredibly efficient and explosive, and the Cowboys have lost over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns from their backfield from last season.  Right now, you can usually pair Pollard with some of the top guys on the board (Jefferson, Chase, CMC) – something you likely won’t be able to do in a month or two.

Rounds 3-5

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