The Colts gave us a solid glimpse into what their offense is expected to look like in Week 1, ranking third in seconds per play at 22.9 (remember, they ran the fastest offense in the league during the preseason), ranking seventh in total pass volume at 39 pass attempts, and finishing the the 26th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt (this is a departure from what we largely saw in the preseason). Mega-athletic quarterback Anthony Richardson accounted for 10 of the team’s 26 rush attempts and Michael Pittman garnered an elite 29.7 percent team target market share (11 targets on 39 team pass attempts). Richardson was forced from the game late in the fourth quarter with a knee injury following a red zone rush attempt, which would fundamentally alter how we expect Shane Steichen and company to approach the game plan for this one. That said, Richardson wasn’t even listed on the team’s initial injury report this week, confirming reports out of Indianapolis that he was simply dealing with a bruised knee. The fantasy community breathes a collective sigh of relief because Richardson is one of the most intriguing players to step foot on a football field this year.
The run game got both good and bad news this week as rookie Evan Hull hit injured reserve, Zack Moss was a full participant in practice Wednesday, and guard Quentin Nelson and tackle Braden Smith both missed practice Wednesday. As things currently stand, I expect Moss to return from a broken arm suffered in preseason to reclaim the lead role, while the two offensive linemen are situations worth monitoring considering the Colts boast a top-10 unit on paper. Either way, the matchup should be considered a strength-on-strength matchup after the Texans held the Ravens to just 3.4 yards per carry in Week 1. The fantasy points against numbers will not look pretty after the Texans ceded three rushing scores against, but those scores came from four yards, two yards, and two yards out. In other words, I don’t expect the Colts, considering the offensive minds behind the design of their offense, to lean on the ground game in this matchup. The obvious exception to that assertion is via the legs of Richardson, who should see a floor of eight to 12 carries in a standard week, with upside for much more.
The heavy zone rates and moderate blitz rates from the Texans predictably led to a low defensive aDOT against in their Week 1 game against the Ravens (5.4, sixth shallowest in the league), which should be the case again here after the Colts were fine attacking the short-to-intermediate areas of the field in Week 1. Indianapolis ran an offense based primarily from 11-personnel in Week 1, with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce operating as near every-down wide receivers, Josh Downs operating as the primary slot weapon with a healthy 79 percent snap rate, and sprinkles of 12-personnel mixed in with Kylen Granson operating as the primary tight end (61 percent snap rate, Mo Alie-Cox the “starter” and best all-around tight end left on the roster (42 percent snap rate), and Drew Olgetree mixing in for heavy alignments (21 percent snap rate). This looks like another game where the Colts will be fine running an uptempo offense focused on the athleticism of Richardson and the intermediate abilities of Michael Pittman.
