Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
There are plenty of people who do their DFS research in a “bubble” and that sort of prep work is celebrated here at OWS. Most of your top analysts prefer to research the slate with as little outside bias as possible, which is great for the final product each week. How airtight are these bubbles, and does it help the average DFS player who doesn’t have the luxury of this “bubble” experience on their own? The answers are “only somewhat” and “not likely.”
Think about the last election ad you heard or scrolled past. You probably quickly viewed the ad and had a negative reaction against the candidate you don’t like, reinforcing what will ultimately be your choice in November. The increase in negative campaigning that ramps up near election day has the effect of creating negative bias, a cognitive bias that is more attention-getting (we are more likely to react to something negative and remember something negative), and more stress-inducing. Many voters will lose interest in the election as a result of negative bias, citing emotional responses to the stress caused by the ads. Negative ads create a negative bias that ultimately influences election results.
Much of the build-up to Week 8 has included some of this negative talk that no “bubble” can keep out as Week 7 was full of injuries and bad beats. JuJu was 25% owned and got hurt. Jordan Whittington produced 0 points at 17% ownership due to a likely shoulder injury. Jayden Daniels was well on his way to a good fantasy score for the 15% of people who rostered him until injury befell him as well. The TB Bucs are dealing with injuries to their two star WRs. NO is missing an entire double stack (QB // WR1 // WR2) to injury. HOU isn’t quite the same without Nico. KC was already missing Rashee Rice and Kelce wasn’t helping much. There are a lot of negatively biased thoughts about the state of these teams and subsequently the Week 8 slate.
Negative bias is more attention-getting and more memorable which likely leads a lot of people to start their research with the negative news at the top of their mind. Negative bias is also stressful, creating a mindset of “I hate this slate” or “This slate is ugly.” This is all important to recognize because cognitive bias affects people’s decision making. I imagine the negative bias will lead many to spend less time researching this week. There are enough distractions in our world including the NBA starting. This is likely to divert some people who just don’t want to deal with the negativity. I also imagine the negativity will lead people to make snap decisions. People will pick their Buccaneer or indiscriminately spread ownership to all three. Recency bias is bound to be more influential on a week like this as people search for certainty in what has most recently happened. Before we move on to some of these specific situations, check in on how negativity bias is affecting your emotions around this week’s slate. You may need to reframe the message for yourself; look at all this value that is opening up! I get to play Jameis Winston (or the defense against him) this week! Find a way to reframe negative thoughts into positive ones to get your mind ready to play this week!
