Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
My family loves to go out to dinner. We have a 3-year-old and a 2-month-old and we still make it a point to go out at least once a week. Last night we went to a Nepali restaurant for what my daughter calls “chicken with a little kick.” We have been ordering from this restaurant for at least five years and have figured out what we like. After a casual look at the menu, my wife and I look at each other and already know we are going to order. It’s the same thing when we go out for Jenni’s Ice Cream or order a mixer at Culver’s. I’ve got my order ready. Is that boring? I commend those who can be open to trying new menu items, but why deviate from something you know you will like and were anticipating leading up to it?
NFL DFS can be like a visit to your favorite ice cream shop sometimes. You see all the options at the beginning of the week, but if you really think about it, you know how you’re going to play. We like choices, but our mind sometimes wants those easy choices that will leave it feeling secure and happy – one scoop of salted peanut butter with chocolate flecks and one scoop of the darkest chocolate, yum! A DFS player’s journey through the week leading up to Sunday often exposes us to all the options, but your biases are likely going to kick in and make the same kind of decision you always make. Perhaps you like to fade chalk entirely or play chalky RBs or you simply grab a piece of everything being talked about that week and hope it falls in the right way on one of your lineups. What biases control your decision-making?
There is one main issue with my metaphor. You know the ice cream will make you happy and it usually does, but in DFS we only control our sense of happiness up until lineups lock. We only control our decisions, not the results, and recognizing the biases that control your brain can help you make better decisions. In DFS we won’t succeed with a favorite flavor or menu order, we need to be open to lots of different options.
Each week I will look at some of the main talking points around the industry. When we hear the same topics time and time again, our confirmation bias often kicks in, helping our brain to process the info quickly and comfortably. We look for bits of news or analysis that fit what we already know or want to be true. It’s difficult to handle so many unknowns and so much doubt. How is your brain processing what’s being talked about around the industry?
Injuries are a main subject of discussion and all of the news around these injuries can fill us with bias. Some reports will frame the injuries as a chance for the remaining players to gain extra volume (targets and touches have to flow somewhere) and some reports will speculate on the changes to game plans. There are a number of ways to frame the injury situations around the NFL. Let’s examine a few:
