Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
How did it go last week? Really, how did it go? Because the strongest biases we bring to this week are the result of our understanding of our DFS performance last week. I did not make any moves in my rosters this past week. I mostly rostered lower owned plays in the afternoon games, and I was in a position to win a tournament if McLaughlin or Dowdle had what would be a surprisingly good week. It didn’t happen, but I felt good about the decision. I never really gave much thought outside of 5% of lineups rostering J.K. Dobbins. Imagine if I had weighed that switch heavily and then not pulled the trigger. I would be in a much different spot entering this week. I would likely be dealing with omission bias.
If passivity in decision making wins out, our brains are happy. Our brains have a harder time dealing with a bad decision; it’s considered a harmful action. We prefer harmful inaction instead. This is why making a meaningful switch is so hard. We fear the regret we will feel if we switch and are wrong. We fear it more than if we don’t make the switch. If I had made the switch to Dobbins, and then McLaughlin excelled (he had five targets right away in the game but had no success with those plays, and then they fell behind), I would have the worst feeling of regret. Our brains judge the decisions we make and try to prevent the harmful feelings. Who did you switch to, or not switch to last week? Recognizing it as a bias can help free its hold over you. Additionally, we should always consider whether a roster switch is a play for first place.
There have been a lot of interesting stat lines from players who we expect to do well and players who are surprising us. We should try to remember the primacy bias where our brains think that whatever happens first is more likely to happen over and again. J.K. Dobbins may be the lead RB in LAC, but his production was on the back of a 61 yard TD run vs. LV. How likely is that to occur in the future?
