Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
Many of us who play DFS have at one point in time been athletes ourselves. Perhaps we haven’t played at the highest levels, but there is something true about success at every level of athletics, and that is when the game finally slows down. You can have the best natural attributes and developed skills, but if the game is moving too fast for you to process, you can’t establish a level of success. My sport was water polo. I played in high school and college. I can distinctly remember during my first year when the game was simply moving too fast and I found myself with my head underwater most of the time. I can also remember when the game finally slowed down enough for me. Luckily, it didn’t take too long and my confidence and success soared.
DFS is a fast-paced and repetitive game. All successful players need a process and an ability to slow that weekly (or daily if you play other sports) grind down. What happens if you cannot slow it down is that bias has a stranglehold over your decision making. I heard a comment made on a popular podcast today that said something to the effect of, “last week we had to play 30% Kayshon Boutte…” and it struck me. Is that how some people think and process their DFS decisions? Do we have to find ways to win within a herd mentality? By Week 12 of the season, there is a reality that the best plays (or lineup decisions) are easier to identify and often those best plays will be higher owned, but there is also a reality that you have to play fearless and step outside of the herd mentality in order to have a shot at first place.
My mantra for building lineups has three parts: Play for First, Build Lineups that can score 200 points, and Play Fearless. Bias often hinders our ability to do this, especially omission bias. Our brains prefer passivity to active roles. We are prone to judge harmful inaction as a lesser evil than harmful action, like when we fail to make a +EV roster change or fail to eliminate someone from our player pool when building for MME. After the fact, we are harsher on decisions where we change a part of our lineup than when we don’t. Omission bias keeps a DFS player from playing fearlessly. I process these situations by recognizing that a bias, not my mind, is in charge of my decision making process. Last week I had trouble making a decision about my ownership of David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs. I liked both options, but I liked the $800 I saved with Monty, especially with the way I projected the game to play out. There were other voices in my head (bias) telling me to roster Gibbs because of his higher upside. Ownership ended up about even in some contests and in higher dollar contests Gibbs was 5% higher owned. I played a bit of both, but also settled on Gibbs in SE and higher dollar spots. Perhaps it was the +EV decision, but I was conflicted and chose what I deemed the safer play based on omission bias. We usually have multiple decisions like that on a roster, and the more we fail to recognize the bias involved, the closer we get to playing with the herd mentality.
Not all bias is bad. I am biased to believe that a low owned cheap play highlighted by JM is better than a low owned cheap play that I can come up with. I believe this because I recognize my lack of NFL knowledge in comparison to others. When JM and Hilow were touting Kendrick Bourne as direct leverage off of the Boutte chalk, I recognized this as a certain bias that I was willing to incorporate into my lineup. Similarly, I did not like the way the PIT-BAL thoughts from OWS deviated from my own thoughts about the game. I played Pickens, but was hesitant to roster Lamar or Russ. Without the bias, I probably would have avoided everyone from that game completely. As DFS players we are prone to judge harmful inaction as more tolerable than harmful action. I regret my failure to recognize this bias with regard to the Gibbs-Monty situation (I ultimately chose inaction) but am happy that I did not let the OWS steam with regard to PIT-BAL move me to act. The game of DFS has slowed down for me after so many years. I know what decisions are being influenced by bias and am able to actually name the bias. At these times I can go back to my original thoughts about the slate (I write them down and you should too!) and make a good decision for my style of play and the tournaments I am entering. Sometimes I am able to incorporate biased thinking into my lineups in a +EV way and sometimes I have to swerve from the herd. Keep practicing this skill and someday the game will slow down for you as well.
