Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
The Bible often uses numbers to represent ideas. There is a reason why we talk about the Ten Commandments rather than the 613 full set of laws given to the Israelites by God through Moses. The number 10 is usually associated with completion. We have finished 10 weeks of the DFS season, and Week 11 is officially my, “Week to Review.” This was sparked by a conversation with one of the editors at OWS and my realization that I have produced some great content that continues to be relevant and needs to be accounted for because of how helpful it has been as we look back with hindsight’s pretty glasses. You can check out the full articles in the archives section.
I cautioned DFS players coming into a new season, “Don’t overweight what you think you know.” People had put in a lot of research pre-season and could get caught up in looking for data/analysis that confirmed and supported the plays they had been looking forward to rostering all season. I encouraged readers to “look for other ways the game could play out” rather than indulge in that good feeling of having your thoughts/ideas confirmed by projections, analysts, etc.
“If you find yourself utilizing the results from Week 1 as the main source of info driving lineup decisions for Week 2, you are doing it wrong. Week 1 is another data point of information in a long history of data about these players and teams.” I highlighted some way too early trends and told readers to keep an eye on what develops. Some things from Week 1 have definitely remained true – TB overstacks could win tourneys if they continued with their aggressive style, Joe Mixon got a significant workload, and Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts would cannibalize each other over TDs. Look for growing trends, but recognize that recency bias causes humans to have more confidence in recent results. Profitable players can leverage that recency bias to their advantage.
A DFS player’s journey through the week leading up to Sunday often exposes us to all the options, but your biases are likely going to kick in and make the same kind of decision you always make. “We like choices, but our mind sometimes wants those easy choices that will leave it feeling secure and happy (like my order from Jenni’s Ice Cream Shop, one scoop of salted peanut butter with chocolate flecks and one scoop of the darkest chocolate, yum!)”
You should have a process, but your lineup building process should be independent of your research process. Your research process should have a pattern, but building lineups with a patterned approach doesn’t respect the game of DFS. It might leave us secure and happy, but since every DFS week is a unique puzzle to solve, you will have to resort to lucking out, waiting till your patterns and the ideal way to build lineups coincide.
