Thursday, Dec 12th

Beyond The Box Scores: Week Three

Jayden Daniels>Caleb Williams: 

It’s really early, but early results are in…Daniels was the best QB to come out of this year’s draft, and that includes Chicago’s rookie QB Williams. Monday’s game against the Bengals was an eye-opener. I don’t think even the biggest Daniels fan could have expected that performance.

All offseason, I proclaimed that Daniels would be this year’s CJ Stroud. So what did I do with the no.1 pick in my rookie draft? Yup, you guessed it, I blinked and took WIlliams instead of sticking to my guns and taking Daniels. 

Too early to proclaim who’s the best?:

Everyone loves to do autopsies on QBs coming out of the draft. I just did it above with Daniels and Williams. But nobody does it for WRs. Maybe it’s because the QB is front and center and it’s easy to see who is or isn’t producing. But missing on a WR in the draft can be almost as costly. Marvin Harrison Jr was the consensus no.1 WR to come off the board, but there were rumblings that Malik Nabers was the real class of this draft.

After three games, he is proving to be the guy. So far, he already has 23 catches for 271 YDs and three TDs. He’s on pace to catch 130 passes with 1535 receiving YDs. And he’s on pace to find the endzone 17 times. Those numbers would not only put him at the head of this year’s class but put him in the discussion of best WR in the league, up there with Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase. To put Nabers’ numbers in perspective, Harrison, Brian Thomas, and Rome Odunze only have 30 catches combined.

Who needs Stefon Diggs?: 

Speaking of top-tier WRs…Diggs is now in Houston, while Buffalo shed the diva WR. There were a slew of questions heading into this season, but in the early going, the experiment has been a success. This is a classic case of addition by subtraction. Without Diggs to worry about, QB Josh Allen is free to simply get the ball to the open receiver without having to worry about feeding Diggs the ball. 

They are 3-0 and look like they are finally ready to take the next step. If Monday was an example, Allen completed passes to 10 different receivers, with four TD passes to four different receivers.

What more can he do?: 

The Bengals are 0-3, and their season is effectively over. But Joe Burrow is doing everything he can. He left the field with the lead in week two against the Chiefs, only to have Patrick Mahomes come back for the win. This past week, he was 29-38 with 324 YDs and three TDs. And the offense combined for 448 total YDs. 

And then were three: 

Aside from the Bengals, there are two other teams who are 0-3. Both the Titans and the Jaguars are sitting without a win. Even the Panthers have a win under their belt. The Titans weren’t expected to be particularly good this year, but the Jaguars were expected to compete with the Texans. They have Trevor Lawrence entering his fourth season and Doug Pederson in his third year as the team’s HC. Last year was a blip, but two years ago, he led them to the playoffs and a playoff win. This 0-3 start is a complete surprise.

Carson Wentz all over again?: 

Speaking of Lawrence, this is becoming eerily similar to the Carson Wentz saga. Wentz was the second pick of the draft, while Lawrence was the first player taken in his draft. In Wentz’s second year, he was second in MVP voting. He played five years on his rookie contract with the Eagles before becoming a vagabond in his last three seasons, playing one each with the Colts, Commanders, and Rams.

Lawrence is only in his fourth season and was signed to a long-term extension. In his second year, he led the Jaguars to the playoffs and got a win in the first round. He has regressed and looks absolutely lost this season. And if we are being honest, Wentz actually had a better career than Lawrence has been thus far. In his career Wentz was 47-45, while Lawrence is only 20-33. Frankly, if he weren’t the No. 1 pick, he would have been benched already. 

And then there were five: 

Last week, there were nine undefeated teams and nine winless teams. This week, two-thirds of the winless teams won, while five of the nine undefeated teams are still perfect. The Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Seahawks, and Vikings are all 3-0. The Chiefs have been the top-rated team in power rankings…have the Bills done enough to overtake them? Our power ranking article comes out on Thursday.

What a difference a QB can make: 

I just wrote that if Trevor Lawrence wasn’t a No. 1 draft pick, he would have already been benched. Bryce Young couldn’t make it to year four…he barely made it into year two. After badly losing two games, he finally got benched for Andy Dalton. All Dalton did was go 26-37 with 319 YDs and three TDs. And the Panthers throttled the Raiders 36-22.

A win still reveals lingering and potentially fatal flaws: One of my sports axioms and betting strategies is to bet on the team more desperate for a win and who needs it more. It doesn’t always play out that way. Exhibit A was Monday’s game with the Bengals and Commanders. But, oftentimes, the team that needs it gets it. Such was the case in Dallas when the Ravens went into ATT Stadium 0-2 and came out victorious. It was only a 3-point win, and some will argue that the game wasn’t that close. 

That may be true, but I have to pump the brakes and ring the panic button. One of the Ravens flaws has been their inability to hold fourth-quarter leads. Not even they could blow this lead, though. Heading into the fourth quarter, they were up by 22 pts. It was a combination of the Cowboys desperately trying to come back and the Ravens playing a soft, preventive defense…but they did put up 19 points in the fourth quarter. If the Ravens hope to get past the Chiefs and get to the Superbowl, they’ll have to learn to play for a full 60 minutes.

San Fransisco’s achilles heel: 

Christian McCaffrey still hasn’t played due to an achilles heel problem. Not only is he not due back anytime soon, he has made a trip to Germany to seek out a specialist. This reeks of a year-ling loss…and without CMC, there is no chance the 49ers get back to the Superbowl.

Dolphins dilemma:

The Dolphins are facing a serious dilemma with Tua Tagovailoa out of action. They have a Ferrari on offense and have given the keys to someone with a learner’s permit. None of their in-house options are good or viable. They need to go outside the organization. Maybe it’s a long shot, but they need to trade for one of Pittsburgh’s QBs. There is talk that HC Mike Tomlin hasn’t committed to Justin Fields and is indicating that when Russell Wilson is ready, he may become the QB1. That’s a tough call for a team that is currently undefeated and clicking. But one thing is certain: it’s not fair for Fields to sit. Wilson may have felt the job was his before he got injured. Let one of these guys go and snag a solid draft pick in return. Either Wilson or Fields will work great in Miami’s offense. They need to do something sooner than later before the season is lost.