Thursday, Dec 12th

Beyond The Box Scores: Week Four

Entering wk.5 we are down to two undefeated teams…one in the AFC and one in the NFC. The 1972 Dolphins will have to wait at least one more week to pop the cork. The Vikings actually have an easier game next week than the Chiefs do. Both teams are home, but the Vikings are playing the Jets, while the Chiefs are facing the Saints on Monday night. There is a very real chance that the Vikings will be the last undefeated teams standing. The Chiefs at home on a Monday night is usually a pretty good bet, but on top of being without Isiah Pacheco, they will be without their WR1, Rashee Rice, who is out with a knee injury. 

Aside from the undefeated’s, there are a handful of other intriguing games this week:

Jags to get their first win: 

The Jaguars have too much talent to be 0-4, and they certainly have too much talent to be 0-5. Even bad teams win the occasional game. In fact, the other 31 teams have all won at least one game so far; even the Patriots, Cardinals, Giants, and Panthers have a win under their belt. The Jaguars are facing the Colts at home and will prevail. 

Put up or shut up in Houston: 

The Texans are in first place in the AFC South, and the Bills are in first in the AFC  East…something has to give. I’d like Houston much more if the Bills won on Sunday, but not only did they lose in Baltimore, they got embarrassed. There’s a new movie in the theaters about the beginning days of Saturday Night Live. They were called the “Not Ready For Primetime Players.”  In many ways, this game will determine whether or not Houston is ready for Primetime.

Will Ravens continue to prove themselves?: 

The Ravens had a tough schedule to start the season. They have rebounded nicely from their 0-2 start. They went into Dallas and then came back home to play the Bills, winning both games. They are sitting at 2-2 and now have a divisional road game against the Bengals. The Bengals finally got their first win and are playing much better than they did in their first three games. Both teams are looking up at the Steelers, and both badly need the game. The Bengals need it more because 2-3 looks much better than 1-4.

Brian Daboll’s last game?: 

The Brain Daboll watch is on. After starting 0-2, they went into Cleveland and won fairly decisively. And the Daniel Jones to Malik Nabors connection was in full force. They came back home and laid an egg against the Cowboys. They are now 1-3 and have a tough road game against the Seahawks. There are already whispers about Daboll’s future, and a 1-4 start will turn the whispers into full-throated calls for his job.

Either the Raiders or Broncos will be 3-2: 

It is almost impossible to believe, but the Raiders and the Broncos are each 2-2 this year. And they are facing off against each other in Denver. Unless they end in a tie, one of these will leave the field winning the game to get to 3-2. With the turmoil surrounding Davante Adams, and the way the Broncos defense is playing, I think HC Sean Payton will have his team begin 3-2.

Something has to give in New England: 

The Patriots lost 24-3 to the Jets two weeks ago and then 30-13 in San Fransisco. They are sitting at 1-3 on the year. The Dolphins lost 24-3 to the Seahawks two weeks ago and then 31-12 this week at home against the Titans. They are sitting at 1-3 on the year. One of these teams has to win on Sunday, but it may be the dullest game in NFL history…and I actually think that without Tua Tagovailoa at the helm for the Dolphins, this is a winnable game for the Pats.

Here are a couple of notes and tidbits from wk.4:

Ran out of time: 

The Vikings have proven to be the real deal as one of only two undefeated teams. And they validated it with their win in Green Bay, beating the Packers 31-29. They went out to an early 28-0 lead and were able to withstand a furious comeback. The Packers scored 22 pts in the fourth quarter and gained 465 of total offense for the game. If they had played five more minutes, they may have made the comeback complete. Even though they are sitting at 2-2, the Packers are a really dangerous team.

Perfection doesn’t get the game ball: 

Detroit’s QB Jared Goff set a record for perfection, going 18-18 Monday night against the Seahawks, giving Seattle their first loss of the year. After the game HC Dan Campbell apparently didn’t realize Goff’s stats, and gave the team ball to a WR and safety…but not to Goff. 

It’s not 1994: 

As much as HC Jim Harbaugh wants to be a running team, looking back fondly to days of yore, when the ground-and-pound approach of the 90s Cowboys won Superbowls, there is no time-traveling Delorean to do it. This is a passing league. The pass is used to build the running game…not the reverse. After the first two games with over 150 rushing yards, the last two weeks have stalled. This Sunday, the Chargers only rushed for 55 YDs. Justin Herbert needs to throw the ball.

It’s a Young Man’s Game: 

Of the three rookie QBs who have been starting this season, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix, they are all at least .500 so far, and they have a combined 7-5 record. It makes one wonder when the Patriots will take the bubble wrap off of no.3 pick Drake Maye.

It’s starting to get Offensive: 

Finally, points are being put up in the league. Of the 16 games this week, eight teams scored over 30pts, with two teams eclipsing 40pts. This is a trend that will continue as the season wears on. Be prepared to see low scores at the start of every season with fewer preseason games. The trend will be more glaring if/when the league goes to an 18-game schedule with only two preseason games.

This is why they play the games:

At the start of the season, did anyone have the Commanders, Seahawks, Vikings, and Buccaneers leading their divisions after wk.4?

League highs and low’s at the quarter pole: 

Ok, it’s not quite the quarterpole, but it’s close enough. The Dolphins have scored the fewest points thus far, only scoring 45 points. The Saints have scored the most with 127pts…yet are only 2-2. This is a similar trend to their performance last season. They are one of 13, 2-2 teams. The Saints have the biggest pt differential of those teams, +57. And the Raiders have the worst pt differential -19. The Colts are sitting exactly even with 85pts scored and 85 pts given up.

The Comeback Kid, comes back again: 

Joe Flacco was named NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year last season for his performance with the Cleveland Browns. He’s now onto greener pastures in Indianapolis, backing up Anthony Richardson. Richardson left the game with a hip injury…enter Flacco. He wasn’t perfect, but he led the Colts to a 27-24 win over the previously undefeated Steelers. He was 16-26 and 168 YDs with two TDs.

Another second chance for a QB: 

In the Titans-Dolphins game on Monday night, Will Levis left with a shoulder injury. Former Steelers QB Mason Rudolph came in and led the team to victory, giving the Titans their first of the year. He was serviceable. He completed nine of 17 passes for 85 YDs. It’s not exactly the start of a Hall of Fame career, and definitely not as prodigious or impressive as what Sam Darnold is doing in Minnesota, but a win is a win. And it may have earned him another start.

This isn’t supposed to be about boxscores…but: 

I couldn’t resist writing about this box score. Jets RB Breece Hall is a legitimate top-10 RB in the league. He is a 1500-yard RB who is a powerful and elusive runner, as well as a fantastic pass receiver out of the backfield. The conditions at the Meadowlands were awful on Sunday…but his output was far worse than the weather. With only 10 rushes, all Hall could muster was four yards…let me say that again, FOUR YARDS!!! For those of you who struggle with math, that’s a 0.4yd average per rush.