Battle Royale 17.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 17!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

Looking at Week 17

After several weeks of condensed slates and missing elite offenses, Week 17 is completely full with 12 games and multiple elite QBs. Basically any QB stack is available here save Hurts-AJB, so getting that decision right will be foundational to success this week. The WR drop off feels more significant than the RB one, so I’m likely to prioritize WRs more frequently in the early rounds, as well as the big 3 at TE. Keep an eye on potential bad weather spots with only two dome games this week, but also look to capitalize on slipping ADPs where drafters get overly scared by early weather concerns that may not even materialize.

QB:

Brock Purdy @ WAS (QB4, 25.1 ADP):

• Fresh off an embarrassing outing against one of the league’s elite defenses, Purdy gets a perfect chance to rebound in dominant fashion against one of the league’s worst. SF will be able to crush this defense on the ground or through the air, but Shanahan will likely look to regenerate some of Purdy’s confidence here in a cake matchup. All 4 of the main SF weapons are stackable with Purdy as WAS has been susceptible to all 3 positions, and in 12-person drafts especially, I’d be happy with a double stack. Keep an eye on impending weather, but SF is the biggest favorite of the week to score 4+ touchdowns.

CJ Stroud vs TEN (QB8, 34.9 ADP):

• Stroud’s cloudy availability over the last couple of weeks has kept his ADP down, and losing the dynamic Tank Dell has hurt this offense overall, but a solid TEN defense that’s susceptible through the air is a great spot for Stroud to remind everyone who the rookie of the year has been. This is one of only two games played in a dome this week, and HOU is fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both QBs to throw for more than 33 attempts vs TEN this year have gone over 300 pass yards, and Stroud has 7 games of over 33 attempts this year. HOU could play it safe with him coming off injury, and they could once again find success on the ground in this matchup, but Stroud’s ceiling is too high to be going undrafted and he can be easily stacked with Nico Collins (WR10, 24.4 ADP) or Dalton Schultz (TE7, 34.9 ADP).

RB:

Bijan Robinson @ CHI (RB11, 34.9 ADP):

• CHI has been very tough on the ground, however the defense filters targets to RBs through the air, something Bijan has displayed immense skill at taking advantage of in his first season. Bijan has 10 games of 5+ targets, including a game of 10 targets last week in Heinicke’s start vs IND. Unideal matchup, but he’s completely free at the end of drafts and has the same ceiling as many of the RBs taken ahead of him.

Raheem Mostert @ BAL (RB12, 35.2 ADP):

• Mostert and Achane have both been battling injuries of late, but Mostert still has lead control of this backfield and leads the league in TDs. BAL has been hit on the ground by several strong offenses this year, including just last week by CMC, showing an explosive unit like MIA could find success here as well. Mostert’s goal-line role this year makes him too valuable to be going undrafted in what has the potential to be a back-and-forth game.

Austin Ekeler @ DEN (RB14, 35.5 ADP):

• DEN has been going through it in the media with all the Payton-Russ controversy, and the defense that seemed to be much improved has been showing cracks of late. The LAC offense should still expect to struggle with Easton Stick at QB, but the main weakness of the DEN defense still lies against RBs, something Ekeler himself exploited for 100 yards and a TD a few weeks ago. Ekeler saw 19 opportunities last week in the first game post-Staley firing and is another guy who has plenty of ceiling in the final round of drafts. Keenan Allen missing is not good for the offense overall, but it does boost Ekeler’s target expectation.

WR:

Stefon Diggs vs NE (WR9, 16.7 ADP):

• Diggs has been a player Belichick has struggled to corral over the years, with Diggs posting four fantasy scores over 18 (18, 18.7, 19.9, 37) and another two solid scores (12.2, 14.8). Diggs has been on a massive cold streak of late, which from everything we’ve ever seen about Stefon Diggs means he’s been squeaking that wheel inside the locker room, and BUF is in a situation of needing to win out to truly control their playoff destiny. Seven WRs have topped 80+ yards vs NE, and Diggs received 12 targets in the one earlier this season. This is not a play I am going to go seeking out a lot, but Diggs-Allen stacks have not been widely available over the years and I want to take advantage now that it is. I would want Josh Allen on my Diggs teams, as a big Diggs game here likely means a Josh Allen big game. This NE defense is not bad, but Belichick can only compensate for the lack of talent and injured depth so much against these elite offenses.

Davante Adams @ IND (WR12, 29.1 ADP):

• Adams has not posted big numbers since O’Connell took over, but he has 4 games of 10-13 targets, and this matchup’s coverage scheme sets up well for what he succeeds at. LV is fighting for their playoff lives, and Jacobs is set up to once again miss the game, keeping the usage condensed on this offense. Hopkins, Evans, Puka, Collins, and Ridley have all dominated as WR1s in this matchup, and Adams has too much talent to be going at the end of drafts. One of only two dome games this week in a competitive playoff-hopeful matchup, Adams has the ceiling to pop.

TE:

Travis Kelce vs CIN (10.0), George Kittle @ WAS (16.1), Trey McBride @ PHI (19.9):

• The big 3 TEs of the week all go within the middle of drafts, with Kelce disappointing frequently of late, but still going as the highest of them all. Kittle’s target expectation is the lowest with SF’s offense healthy, but whose ceiling is as high as any, especially in this smash matchup. McBride is averaging 9.4 targets/game over his last 7 games, producing 4 scores of 15+ points in that span, but PHI has improved against TEs since adding Byard. There are some other TEs to consider on the slate that can match the lower end of these guys’ ceilings, but none of them can touch what these 3 can do at their best here, and I’ll likely be frequently trying to end up with one of these guys because of it.

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

• 37 of the 52 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 22 of the 52 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
• 48 of the 52 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

• 30 of 52 had a QB paired with just one teammate
  • WR (22), TE (5), RB (3)
• 8 of 52 had a QB stacked with two teammates
  • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (2)
• 5 of those 38 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
• 51 of 52 had at least one game correlation
• 15 of 52 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

• 169 of 260 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
• 90 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews). 

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!