Battle Royale 14.23

Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

Welcome to Week 14!

If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

Keeping with the new format change, I am highlighting the stacks I will be targeting this week in drafts, as that is arguably the most important decision for each roster. I’ll also provide some thoughts on other players I’m interested in, and then finish by updating some trending stats for the main contest. Let’s get started!

The reason we are always preaching “scroll down” is because once ADP forms early in the week, not much changes outside of a couple of guys that are usually related to midweek injury/role news. So, that means many people are drafting the “same way,” falling into similar buckets of player combinations, leaving guys outside that top 36 far less owned relative to those above them for not much more reason than a slightly higher projection. Every week there are some underowned guys that are available at the end of drafts that can help you win a tournament, as the 6-person drafting means you aren’t having to find $3k DraftKings priced players just to be unique.

Looking at Week 14

Big-name QBs are back here, but they come with questions themselves. Mahomes and Allen play against each other in a game total lower than normal for this matchup, and Lamar gets another ugly weather blowout potential spot. Meanwhile, the QB with the highest team total on the slate is going in the last round often (Purdy)! It’s always important in this contest to have a stack, but there are also a lot of strong one-off plays this week as well that have lower-upside QBs, so I’m unlikely to do much over-stacking or forced correlation. Keep scrolling down for that overlooked upside!

Stacks I’m Targeting:

Justin Fields + DJ Moore, Cole Kmet vs DET:

DET’s defense continues its struggles and now gets a rematch with Fields who has run for 383 yards and 2 TDs in his last 3 games vs DET. Both Moore and Kmet carry upside here, with Kmet coming at a much bigger discount due to the TE depth on this slate. The path to this game reaching its upside is through Fields’ legs and his main two weapons scoring, pushing DET to be more aggressive.

Brock Purdy + 49ers vs SEA:

This could essentially be highlighted almost every single week, but there’s probably no offense guaranteed for fantasy production more than this one each week. The 49ers skill players are all getting drafted pretty highly, but Purdy is coming at a discount, likely somewhat influenced by his one down week recently coming against SEA on Thanksgiving. SF still put up points in that game, and SEA is still notoriously a tough place to play, making a home game in clear weather Santa Clara a great spot for another big day for this offense.

Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler vs DEN:

This is a lower confidence but lower ownership play that still comes with a strong ceiling in a dome game with potential for plenty of points. DEN has surely significantly improved on defense, but Herbert is an elite QB with a very concentrated group of weapons. This being one of the dome games on the week makes it more attractive, as well as the likelihood Payton and Russ on the other side are able to score on this struggling Chargers defense. Herbert is free in the last rounds this week coming off down weeks in tough matchups, but comes with strong upside, is highly correlated with his two best players, and can be cheaply stacked with Everett in 12-person drafts as well.

Others to Target:

Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara @ CAR:

CAR continues to be very attackable on the ground which sets up well for AK, as another “receiving-strength” back in Rachaad White still found plenty of success here a week ago. And with CAR’s continuous secondary injuries, along with NOR’s own injuries, Olave should continue to be fed targets here inside the dome. I do think both of these guys are plenty valuable without Carr, but if you find yourself in need of a QB in the final round, he’s in play to finish off the roster.

Zack Moss @ CIN:

Much easier spot for Moss coming off the disappointment vs TEN. CIN’s defense has been struggling of late and is very attackable on the ground. Like Mixon on the other side of this game, Moss should be expected to dominate touches for IND once again. This kind of volume expectation at the end of drafts makes Moss very appealing.

Bengals vs IND:

Jake Browning has proven capable of running the CIN offense, making the Bengals still targetable in this spot vs a mediocre defense. Joe Mixon has a great matchup on the ground and is just the 10th RB taken in drafts despite a major role on the ground and through the air. IND has improved since early season, but can still be hit hard by WRs, and Chase remains one of the best even with Browning at QB. Chase currently goes behind St. Brown, Keenan, and DJ Moore, all of whom need far more to go right to capitalize on their upside than Chase does.

Elijah Moore vs JAX:

Moore comes with Flacco history in NY and led the league in air yards in Week 13 during Flacco’s first 2023 start. Now Amari Cooper is in danger of missing the game, Moore sets up as CLE’s WR1 against a defense susceptible to WR production, and yet he’s still going as just the WR31 on the week.

Tight Ends:

Especially with Schultz looking to miss another week, I’m trying to leave almost every draft with one of Kelce, Hock, LaPorta, Kittle, and Kincaid.

Dalton Kincaid @ KC:

A lot of strong TEs on the slate, and he faces the best matchup of the BUF weapons. Discount due to questions regarding Knox’s return, but still comes with the same upside as the other “elite” guys here and can be easily stacked late with Allen.

Brevin Jordan @ NYJ:

Saw an uptick in usage without Schultz, and now with the Dell injury they will continue to need his pass-catching chops. The weakest spot of the Jets defense has been versus TEs all season long.

Notable Stats

These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

1st place performance:

34 of the 49 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
21 of the 49 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
45 of the 49 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

Stacking and Correlation:

29 of 49 had a QB paired with just one teammate
- WR (22), TE (5), RB (2)
7 of 49 had a QB stacked with two teammates
- WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
5 of those 36 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
48 of 49 had at least one game correlation
15 of 49 had two different game correlations

FLEX usage:

160 of 245 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
84 of the other top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there’s only been one instance of double-TE to ever finish top-5 (2023 W7: Kelce/Andrews).

Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!