Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest
Note: The Week 1 edition is a primer on the Battle Royale contest format. The article will return to its normal format in Week 2.
Underdog’s Battle Royale contest has already grown significantly from 2021 to 2022, and with the app only getting more popular across all sports, we should expect to see even bigger contests in 2023. With just two seasons so far of this format (meaning only 36 total of these main weekly contests), strategies are still unfolding and the data we have available is minimal. As someone who has had entries in all 36 contests, I used the top of the leaderboards to compile data on all of the top 5 rosters that we can use to our advantage.
This article will break down the different positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) with information about the successful lineups regarding lineup construction and performance. Some places will have data stretching to the top 5 rosters, and some will only focus on the 1st place teams. Strategy is constantly fluid in a game and sport with such small sample sizes but we should always use the information we have available to better our process. My hope is that by the end, you will have a better grasp on the contest than the average player starting Week 1, 2023.
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First-place performance across the 36 contests (measured by fantasy points scored)
First-place performance across the 36 contests (measured by fantasy points scored)
You need to draft your QB with the expectation that they can score 30 points and then consider how that particular QB could achieve that score.
Does Vegas project a game environment in which 4-5 TDs is a reasonable outcome?
When are QBs most frequently getting selected in these contests?
QB stacking (drafted with a stacking partner/total times in the top 5) for the most common top-scoring QBs: 2021 :: 2022 —> total
First-place performance across the 36 contests (measured by fantasy points scored)
Here we are looking at the total score of the 4 Flex spots:
Here we are looking at the lowest score and highest score of the 4 Flex spots:
24 of the 36 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
15 of the 36 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
32 of the 36 teams had all flex player score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points
We can’t predict these high-end outcomes but we need to draft assuming our selected players are having this kind of production (and how that affects the other players). Placing 1st has essentially meant rostering no duds, at least one mega-stud, and multiple other studs. With no bonuses and only half-PPR, TDs are essential to this production.
How are most winning rosters using the FLEX spot?
With the nature of the contest being smaller rosters and no salaries, it is arguably even more important to have the highest-scoring players on the week than in traditional DFS. Most of the best teams in Battle Royale are going to have hit on the same 1-3 players to achieve the highest weekly score. Taking major stands on players can propel you to success in this contest when you are right.
First-place performance across the 36 contests (measured by fantasy points scored)
Some score benchmarks (an example stat-line for achieving those points):
Especially with a limited sample size, the TE data is more reflective of specific TEs and less of a discernible drafting pattern.
Stacking and game environment correlation across the 36 first-place rosters:
As has been the case with traditional DFS during its entire lifespan, there is no single strategy that holds true for the entire duration of the contest. The nature of football makes for incredibly small sample sizes, extreme variance, and significant changes from week to week and year to year. Reading through the data in this article is not meant to tell you what to do, but rather to help you better understand how success can be achieved in this contest. The more you understand about the kind of performances necessary to win this contest, the better you can adapt your draft strategy every week to the specific nature of the slate on deck.
With the growth of the contest heading into Year 3, placing 1st is only going to get more challenging. It is essential to keep in mind One Week Season’s philosophy of playing for first. It is not just about being right but rather what you achieve when you are right. A 100% owned 35-point game from Jalen Hurts is not going to be the reason you beat everyone else, but an undrafted 32-point game from Zay Jones might be. There will be injury situations throughout the season that affect the ADP of an elite player throughout the drafting week, thus creating opportunities for drafters who are willing to accept the risk. You have to put yourself in position to take advantage when things break your way.
Each week in my Battle Royale article, I will lay out the nature of the slate (I.e. which impactful players are missing, affecting ADP) and attempt to uncover some players that are going overlooked in the contest. This article will also continue to track the most successful rosters and attempt to understand the strategies behind them. I encourage anyone interested in trying the Battle Royale contest to check it out and use our OWS BR Discord channel to ask any questions. Let’s have a great season!
