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The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 18 Topics

1. Sorting Through The Chaos

2. Desperate Times

3. Off The Board

4. Floating Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


1. Sorting Through The Chaos

The Question ::

There really is nothing like the final week of an NFL season and this year is no exception, with so many variables and situations to consider and question marks all over the place in terms of how teams will approach the week, motivations for individuals and teams, and difficulty to know where we can find “certainty”. There are even a lot of spots where the “motivations” for a particular team could be fluid and change as the game is being played. All of the “chaos” provides anxiety and stress as we search for “certainty”, but it also provides a golden opportunity for those willing to embrace it.

What strategies do you see for your approach to this week in particular that may not work out every year but you believe, over time, give you the best chance to take advantage of the uncertainty that Week 18 provides? Also, do you have a particular type of contest that you prefer on this unique slate?

The Answers ::
JM >>

First off, I think it’s critical to acknowledge that we can have a better feel than most of our competition for how teams will truly approach this week. It’s high-confidence and obvious that the following teams will be treating this as a do-or-die week: Tampa // Minnesota // Atlanta // New Orleans // Jacksonville // Seattle // Green Bay // Dallas. This is a very sturdy ledge to stand on. All of these teams have either a playoff spot or genuinely critical playoff seeding on the line. Given what we know about these teams and their coaching staffs, it’s also high-confidence to say that Detroit // Tennessee // Arizona // Chicago will attack their games without any personnel changes or curveballs in approach (Detroit because this is the personality of their team; the other three because they either already have or are building a winning team culture and have a chance to end their seasons with a win that knocks a division rival out of playoff contention). This gives us eight teams that have no question marks, and four additional teams whose approaches should be very straightforward. The Panthers, Jets, Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders are in a bucket of teams A) unlikely to change their approach, B) carrying some potential of throwing us some sort of “usage curveball,” but C) carrying implied team totals of 20 or lower (in most cases, much lower), which means that any “usage curveballs” are unlikely to produce true tourney separators. That covers 19 of the 26 teams, leaving us with the Browns and Bengals (shell units on the Browns’ side; whoever is active for the Bengals will be playing and trying to help them finish with a winning record), the Chiefs and Chargers (shell units on both sides — the Chiefs because of playoff rest; the Chargers because of injuries and a season that died a long time ago; both teams implied to score 19.5 or below), the Rams and 49ers (shell units on both sides — both because of playoff rest; the Rams are implied to score only 18.5, but the 49ers carry a lot of question marks that could be cleared up on Saturday, or may not become clear until after the game kicks off, as there is a chance that San Francisco starts some of their superstars and we’ll be left guessing as to how early the backups will come in). The final team remaining is the Eagles, who are the one team that has “scoreboard watching” potential, and could rest players early in spite of technically having a shot at some valuable movement with regards to playoff seeding. This is a guessing game we could play, but since Philly has produced only four price-considered “separator” scores all season (one from Hurts, two from AJB, one from Goedert), I don’t mind playing the stay-away game altogether on tighter builds.

Secondly, I think it’s critical to acknowledge that we’ve seen the field get stomped by “the backup trap” all season, and it’s critical to acknowledge that we often see chalk in “Week 18” (previously Week 17) around players that everyone supposes will have a big role, but who in fact do not. The reason it’s hard to avoid this chalk is because it’s typically priced low enough that if the field IS correct, that spot could produce a nice enough salary-multiplier that you’re behind by not having had it. But again, as we always talk about: we see high-end starters fail in good spots all the time; so with players like this, the field needs to get two things right before even getting started: they need to get their playing time and usage suppositions correct, and then they need to “be correct” in placing a bet on that (backup) player producing on his usage. Being willing to go underweight the field on a few of these spots typically proves to be really powerful.

Thirdly, it’s important to realize (to set your intentions in building against this realization) that we are still playing a game of strategy, in which part of the game is figuring out how to maximize points in a way that will move you around the decisions of the masses if your angles prove correct. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking this week is any different. It can be easy to get so caught up in the Week 18 narratives and hoopla that you forget we’re still often at our best when leveraging uncertainties, winning games of +EV risk/reward, and attacking the over-certainty of others.

Xandamere >>

Week 18 is a week to embrace risk and volatility. There are lots of projections around the industry that are essentially implying they KNOW what’s going to happen, who’s going to be in what role, etc. – an example here is Jordan Mason for the 49ers, who is projected around the industry as the best point-per-dollar running back of the day (and one of the highest raw point totals, as well). But do we KNOW it’ll be Mason? No, we don’t. It probably is – I’m not saying don’t play Mason – I’m just saying that every Week 18 there are things that surprise us when guys who the industry was SO certain would be in major roles…aren’t. Or guys on teams that have “nothing to play for” but they play their starters anyway. Unpredictability is the name of the game this week, and I recommend leaning into the volatility. Think about it like this: “if <insert really popular play> doesn’t actually have a significant role, who does that benefit?” My general rule of Week 18 year in and year out is I want to be underweight almost all the chalk – it’s the single most volatile week of the season, and I’m willing to lean way, way into that. 

For me this is a great week for multi-entry, or if playing single or limited entry, doing so in very small field contests. Multi-entry gets you exposure to more of those “what if?” scenarios, while if you’re sticking with single or limited entry, playing very small field contests helps you avoid the random blowup games who are really hard to see coming that will likely be needed in big tourneys, and just trust that you can build a sharper roster of strong plays in strong spots than a field of, say, 100 competitors.

Hilow >>

While we’re lacking “certainty,” or the high confidence spots where we can build our roster cores around, there are multiple high-upside spots where we can place lopsided bets this weekend. In other words, places the field isn’t necessarily going that bring immense upside. The three primary spots I’ve identified for that level of upside are the Eagles, the Cowboys (not just CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard), and the Lions. All three of those offenses are top offenses but there are concerns surrounding the playing time for their primary skill position players. But what if those teams play their primary players the entire game? The only uncertainty here is the level of playing time, not the skill of the players or the matchup.

In total, I’ll be looking for as many of these “leveraged bets” as possible this weekend instead of placing my hard-earned benjamins on lesser talent or fill-in players. Since there is so much uncertainty and variance associated with this slate, theoretically we should be embracing as much as possible and entering large field contests, which is what I will be primarily looking to do in Week 18.

Mike >>

There are three things about Week 18 that stand out to me in terms of approach and/or strategy::

  • Contest Selection – Week 18 is absolutely the nuts for those who prefer playing GPP tournaments. There are a lot of teams playing, which spreads out ownership for the most part, and we have a unique mix of uncertainty in many spots and overconfidence in others that makes the context of the week ideal for those who play tournaments the right way. You are more likely to have a losing week on the last week of the season, but also have a much clearer path to a huge score.
  • Youth Movement – Identifying young players whose teams may make it a priority to get them involved and/or see how they look in more featured roles.
  • Elevated Usage – The teams that are playing for their playoff lives will often take off any touch restrictions on their primary players which naturally changes the range of outcomes for those players.

2. Desperate Times

The Question ::

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

As we have discussed throughout the season, projection systems and “Sims” have taken hold across the DFS industry and are a huge part of the process of much of the field. These are certainly useful tools, but can also be misleading at times. These systems work primarily on range of outcomes and expected usage based on team and player trends along with expected game environments. The interesting thing about this for Week 18 is that for some teams, some of the factors that they use in making those usage decisions may be thrown out the window in these “win or go home” spots. 

Are there any players standing out to you this week who fit the mold of players who may be fully unleashed with all the chips on the table?

The Answers ::

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Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!