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OWS Fam!!!
Week 7 was a chaotic slate, to say the least. As we get deeper into the season, we’re now at the point where injuries are taking over, and Week 7 felt like total carnage.
Looking back, I’m not sure we saw some incredibly surprising outcomes, but we had plenty of players who carried decent ownership—from Jayden Daniels to Deshaun Watson to Deebo Samuel // Brandon Aiyuk to JuJu Smith-Schuster, and finally to Monday night’s Chris Godwin and Mike Evans—all who left games early due to injury and left owners grasping at air in their lineups.
It seems the 49ers and Bucs may face the most adversity in the short term, but it’s important to note that with a challenge comes opportunity. With (potentially) some prominent offensive roles opening up, and a next-man-up mentality on most teams, we’ll have a strong opportunity to find value in Week 8 and capitalize on our convictions to be a week early, instead of a week late.
Before we dive into the slate :: With NBA tipping off a couple days ago, it’s a good a time to remind you that NBA is easily the OWS Props team’s most profitable sport, with over $8,000 in in profit last season alone!
And look (real talk) :: I am always dubious of any site that touts “money won,” because without sound process, simply posting W’s without explanation or process behind it signifies luck. This is biased, of course, but the OWS team may be the best in the business in providing accountability. Every day won’t be profitable (it’s about finding edges that will play out in our favor over time), but regardless of W’s and L’s, you can always find justified reasoning and thinking behind the bets that were made. This means that not only are you getting bets to trail, but you are learning along the way, so you are building your own edge, too. It’s a win-win.
It’s no secret that NFL is the most popular sport in the United States. And for that reason, the lines, whether game or player-specific, are the most efficient because the books get the most action on them. In the NBA, with less overall money on individual lines, the opportunity to find edges is massive—and the OWS team has done this consistently year in, and year out.
Jump in with us for $35 for a week pass, or $89 for a month, and if you don’t feel it’s a fit for you, we are happy to give you your money back.
Remember: You don’t have to follow the sports; you just have to follow the bets!
In a week where we have four major U.S. sports all playing games (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL), it’s almost as if the NFL deliberately scheduled every team to play Week 8, as if to say, “Our product is the best.” I can’t imagine they’d care so much about the money and attention…
I kid, but it’s kind of amusing nonetheless that after three weeks of at least some teams enjoying an off week, we now have Week 8 where no teams get to relax and take a break in the middle of the grind that is the NFL season. This includes last week’s London visitors, the Patriots and Jaguars, which are coming off a trip which typically constitutes a bye after such a change in time zones. Jacksonville, of course, was in the U.K. for two weeks having played the Bears and then the Pats, so maybe their adjustment back home will be a bit smoother than New England’s. It’s an interesting note either way for their opponents: the Packers (Jags) and Jets (Pats).
No byes and no London game means a full 13-game(!) main slate on Sunday. This includes five games in the late window, which by my count is the most we’ve seen all season. Most typical reactions to the size of this slate (after multiple weeks of 10-gamers) is going to be an overwhelming / “must cover every game on this slate” feeling. That may be a bit extreme, but dumbed down a bit, the projection I am making here is that there will be teams, games, and players you feel will succeed on Sunday and simply won’t have room to fit onto rosters. And that’s okay.
Even if you are an MME, 150-max player, you have to take stances. “Covering every square” may feel good, but it’s a poor strategy of maximizing what you win when you win. If your exposure is very spread out, your losses will pile up even as your wins may climb, which in essence brings down your total profits (assuming you did see a top 1% finish from a roster).
13 games…and away we go!
What a unique layout for this slate, where we have four teams projected to score about 26 points. Let’s start there. They are the Lions without Jameson Williams (27.75) vs. Tennessee // Green Bay (27) with its full complement of offensive players at Jacksonville with a four-point spread // Baltimore (26.25) at Cleveland (and Jameis Winston) favored by nine // and…the Denver Broncos hosting the 1-6 Carolina Panthers. One of these teams is unlike the other. I’ll let you guess which one.
In “Tier II” we are presented with five more teams projected to be within 25 and 26 implied points on Sunday. The Texans (25.75) vs. the Colts // Kansas City (25.5) at the Raiders // Bengals (25) vs. Eagles // Dolphins (25) vs. Arizona // and finally, the Bills (25) traveling to Seattle. In total, at least on the high end of projections, this is nine of 26 teams, or about 35% of the teams looking at more than three touchdowns and a field goal on Sunday. But here’s the kicker…none of these nine are playing each other.
With no games expected to climb over 50 points (in terms of Vegas over/unders), but a whole slew of teams about 25 and a bunch more (eight) hovering around 22, the books are telling us that if we played this slate 100 times, we’d get some wide distributions of scoring with teams peaking here and there but more times than not, no team truly putting the slate away.
That leaves us with this week’s approach: Embracing variance, because when we have a potential for outlier situations to emerge, when the books aren’t projecting them, we can feel more comfortable in putting our belief behind just about any team, knowing that the odds could be just as favorable to score 30+ points as any other team on the slate (i.e. we could make the case for probably half of the 26 teams in play to put up 30 points this week).
Instead of taking us even further into matchups, I’m going wrap up this week with specific angles I am seeing at first glance, without prior digging, that could emerge despite not jumping off the page(s) at the moment.
Week 8 is a perfect setup for GPPs. Choose your adventure, and don’t look for too many reasons why the offense you believe in can score 30+. If you see a path, go for it.
And ride it to the top of leaderboards on Sunday.
Can’t wait to see you in the props streets (grab a Week Pass!!!), in the Bink Machine, and on the site this weekend.
May Week 8 be your best week yet!
~Larejo
