New members: Every Thursday morning, we send out the Angles email — in which we take a critical, “overview” look at the slate ahead.
1. The Hot Streak Continues
2. Week 8 Slate
NFL Props Profit:
NBA Props Profit:
If you’re still playing DFS cash games, I strongly encourage you to pivot over to Props. As I said last week, these numbers will continue to grow.
Even if you don’t follow the NBA — a bucket I fall into myself — you can easily/profitably tail these NBA props. It probably goes without saying that our weekly ROI won’t be this high all year, but anyone who A) picked up NBA Props Insider before Day 1 and B) tailed all the bets from the NBA prop-betting channel has C) paid for their subscription 12 times over, through just over one week of action.
*Profit is calculated by assuming recommended units on recommended bets (duh)
Total Main Slate Games: 11
There are 10(!) teams missing from the Main Slate, with three Island games, a London game, and two teams on bye, with “missing teams” including the Chiefs (first in the NFL in points per game), the Bills (second in the NFL in points per game), the Ravens (sixth in the NFL in points per game), the Bengals (eighth in the NFL in points per game), the Browns (10th in the NFL in points per game), and the Chargers (11th in the NFL in points per game). We are also missing some marquee names with the Packers and Buccaneers off the Main Slate.
In terms of “players missing,” we are subtracting four of the quarterbacks who tend to draw high ownership at the top of the price range in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert (a list that doesn’t even include Joe Burrow in a Bengals offense that has finally shifted back to their pass-leaning ways — with Burrow’s price and ownership sure to continue climbing). This leaves us with only Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray in the “expensive QB” pool this week.
We are also subtracting both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews from this week’s slate, which completely changes the tight end landscape, and we are subtracting a number of other typically-popular, high-priced options in Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams.
Finally — perhaps the element that will have the biggest impact of all on this slate — the Colts have decided to bench Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger, who costs 10% of the salary cap on FanDuel…and only 8% of the salary cap on DK (for comparison: Jalen Hurts costs 16.6%; Ehlinger’s price tag on DK is $4,000). Ehlinger has mobility in the pocket, a willingness to take off on the ground, and a willingness to pull the trigger on tight-window, downfield throws. This would already be an attractive profile if he were more expensive than he is…and given his “too low” price tag, it’s highly likely that he draws plenty of attention this week. This will not only become a critical decision point from a standpoint of “whether or not we roster this player,” but will also materially shape the salary allocation and build structure of our roster(s) as a whole (particularly on DraftKings, where every other starting quarterback is priced significantly higher than Ehlinger).