Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Angles 7.23

Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam —

What a weekend!

At OWS, we try to keep the same mindset as NFL players and coaches (“One week at a time; don’t think too far ahead; don’t waste time looking back”), but we wouldn’t be doing right by our community if we didn’t highlight some of the things that happened this last weekend.

It’s impossible to ignore the level at which the OWS community has been wrecking the DFS field this season, and Week 6 was more of the same, with wins and Top 10 finishes across a wide array of major DFS tourneys, including:

  • 1st in the $250k Red Zone
  • 1st in the $500k Spy
  • 2nd in the $500k Power Sweep
  • 2nd in the $300k Flea Flicker (Mike Johnson!)
  • 2nd in the $200k Fair Catch (Mike Johnson!)
  • 3rd in the $500k Spy
  • 3rd in the $150k Slant (yours truly)
  • 1st in at least five different FanDuel tourneys, in multiple Showdown tourneys, in a large number of smaller Main Slate tourneys, in Sunday-Monday tourneys, and in Afternoon-Only tourneys

To give you an idea of just how dominant the OWS community has been: we had 14 OWS pennants in the top 100 of The Slant, from nine different community members — and that doesn’t even include members of the OWS Fam who don’t rep the OWS pennant as their avatar. (Note: if you want to add your own splash of orange to the leaderboards, you can find the OWS pennant avatar on your profile page!)

We’ve had big wins from the community all six weeks of the season so far, and we’ve had collectively HUGE weekends five of six weeks. Pretty incredible what we’re building at OWS.

If it hasn’t happened for you yet, don’t fret. Look around you. Your turn is coming.

With that, let’s turn our attention to Week 7 — a very unique, very interesting slate.

Week 7 Angles

Several years ago, I had a one-off podcast (I believe it was an OWS Chat Pod — which no longer exists) in which I focused on the concept of “processing information without judgement.” The idea here is that it’s valuable to remain emotionally neutral — to withhold labels of opinion: “good,” “bad,” etc. — whenever possible. Ideally, we hold to the parable of the Chinese farmer, in which “maybe” is our reply to the binary judgements/opinions of others (again: “this is good,” “this is bad,” etc.; instead, we say, “Maybe”). This mindset can also be described as, “It is what it is.” In other words: “This isn’t good, or bad; this just IS. We deal with each small puzzle in life on a case-by-case basis, and the goal is simply to solve each one.”

I bring that up right now because scoring is down across the NFL (for a variety of reasons — some of which I’ll talk about in this week’s Angles Pod), and this week provides a pretty clear example of that, as we have 20 teams playing on the Main Slate, and 17 are implied to score 23.5 or fewer points, while 14 teams are not even implied to top 22 points. On top of that, the teams implied to top 23.5 are as follows:

>> The Chiefs, implied to score 26.75 against the Chargers. As we know, the Chiefs run out a deep rotation on offense that makes it difficult for any tourney-winners to materialize, and the two “core pieces” of their offense (Patrick Mahomes // Travis Kelce) are priced high enough that an implied total of 26.75 doesn’t necessarily make them clear, standout plays.

>> The Seahawks, implied to score 26.0 against the Cardinals. As we know, the Seahawks have a long history under Pete Carroll of only producing tourney-winning DFS scores when their offense is pushed by the opposing offense, as Seattle approaches games, philosophically, in a “chess match” manner, where the goal is to have an advantage in the fourth quarter and maneuver to a win. Seattle can score 24 to 27 points without game environment help from the Cardinals, but they’ll likely need help in order to climb into true, “tourney-winning” territory.

>> The Bills, implied to score 24.5 against the Patriots. The Patriots have failed to generate big plays on defense this year, and their own offense continues to put opposing offenses in good position, but good NFL offenses/players have continued to struggle this year to notch notable statistical production against Bill Belichick’s crew. (No QB has topped 265 yards in this matchup — a list that includes Hurts // Tua // Dak || no WR has topped 86 yards in this matchup — a list that includes A.J. Brown // Tyreek // CeeDee // Olave // Davante.) 

These are the three teams at the “top” this week, and every other team is implied to score 23.5 or fewer points.

Typically, we “open the funnel” into the week by highlighting some of the key teams/players on the slate, some of the key teams/players missing from the slate, and what this means for the macro slate setup; but this week, the setup is less about “who’s playing and who’s not,” and is more about “who on this slate can actually crack 30 points?”

If you find the answer to this question in enough spots this week, you probably end up winning, as this is not a slate that sets up well for offensive explosion.

As for how this fits into the broader macro structure/strategy:

Because of the fact that “chalk forms no matter what,” weeks like this tend to create more sub-optimal chalk than normal, which increases the value of higher-floor plays “who can go for ceiling.” Get a bunch of these players “correct” across your roster, and you’re going to be ahead of a large chunk of the field.

At the same time, this is a week in which “the random, unowned 30-pointer” becomes exponentially more valuable, as you can potentially unlock your path to first place by landing this rare 30-pointer on the right remaining combination of players (hint: perhaps the types of players mentioned in the previous paragraph: higher-floor plays “who can go for ceiling”).

This is the type of week that can seem adversarial to most of our competition (“This slate is ugly; I don’t even know what to do with it”), which increases the chances that they step into the flow of the groupthink and add to your edge.

This week is not “good.”

This week is not “bad.”

This week just IS.

Let’s solve it.

Bink Machine :: NBA!

By popular request, we’re adding the Bink Machine for NBA(!).

The Bink Machine will be populated with projections and ownership projections from FTN (a site I have a massive amount of respect for, and where I do most of my NFL research these days), and we’ll have a sharp community on Discord if you’re looking to work through your thoughts on a slate.

The Bink Machine for NBA will be $39 for a month pass (same as NFL), and only $179 for a full season. Code TIPOFF will take an additional $20 off that full-season price (we’ll expire this code after tipoff, next Tuesday).

$52 Off Props Monthly!

As you know, we are capping the number of spots available for Props Insider, as this protects our users from getting their bets flagged.

If you want to grab one of those spots, you can take $52 off the first month of Props Insider(!).

As long as you renew, you’ll keep your spot — and if you want to cancel your monthly renewal at any point, we’ll make that spot available to someone new.

There are 187 spots remaining, and I don’t imagine they’ll last too long, with NBA about to tip off.

We finished last NBA season over $9,000 in profit (+92 units), and we’re up $9,400 (+94 units) already this year.

Code PROPS knocks the first month down to $98.

Hopefully I’ll see you in Props Insider soon.

And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!