Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
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Angles 6.23

Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

Week 6 Angles ::

OWS Fam!

Welcome to Week 6.

There are only two teams on bye this week, but with a London game, we end up with only 11 games on the Main Slate.

Missing from the Main Slate are some marquee quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert, along with a pair of elite tight ends (Kelce // Andrews), and a couple alpha wideout options (Diggs // Keenan). One interesting component introduced by this list, however, is that these offenses are relatively narrow (in terms of upside production), which doesn’t actually remove a large volume of “pay attention to” names from the slate.

Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler are missing from the running back pool, and running back pricing on DraftKings is finally starting to shake out a bit closer to what it should actually look like, with a large gap between Christian McCaffrey and all the other guys. With McCaffrey playing against the rugged Browns defense and plenty of mid-tier backs in solid matchups or game environments, the typical roster construction approach from the field should be relatively clear.

Shockingly, this slate offers us only two teams with implied totals north of 24.75, with one of those teams being the Dolphins all the way up at 31.0 for their clash against the 0-5 Panthers. The Rams are the only other team within shouting distance of the Dolphins, with an implied total of 27.75 at home against the Cardinals. (It’s probably safe to assume that both of these running backs will be popular this week.)

While the implied totals don’t look attractive away from these two offenses, we still have an interesting slate with plenty of opportunities for upside.

From “game environment” perspectives ::

The Commanders and Falcons carry a paltry Over/Under of 42.5, but the Commanders have seen 60+ points scored in three of their five contests, and they have allowed 33+ points to four of five opponents. The Falcons are capable of putting up points, and the Commanders have the firepower to keep pace if this happens.

The Vikings are missing Justin Jefferson, and the Bears defense is trending more toward “below average” than “downright awful,” while the same could be said about a Vikings defense taking on an inconsistent Bears offense. The Over/Under here is 44.5…but would it surprise us if these two teams that have combined for seven games (in 10 tries) over that total end up playing to a higher-scoring affair?

The Bengals defense appears to be rounding into form, but the Seattle defense is tough on the ground (second in run defense DVOA) and has been bad against the pass, and the Seattle offense is almost always going to find a way to keep pace when an opponent is scoring points. This game has an Over/Under of 45.0, but a much higher-scoring outcome is well within the viable range of outcomes.

The Jags scored 31 points against the Colts the last time these teams met, and a similar outcome wouldn’t be surprising here. The Colts aren’t set up great for a similar output, but it’s still something they are capable of doing — especially if the Jags are paving the way on offense for this type of game environment to develop. This game has an Over/Under of 45.5, but a more exciting game could develop.

And from an “individual player” perspective ::

Tyreek Hill // Cooper Kupp // Ja’Marr Chase // Davante Adams // Puka Nacua // A.J. Brown // Amon-Ra St. Brown // Jaylen Waddle // Mike Evans // DeVonta Smith // Chris Godwin // DK Metcalf // Calvin Ridley // Chris Olave // D.J. Moore are all on this slate, and they all have 35 DK points within their ranges of outcomes. Some have a better shot at getting there than others, but this slate is full of interesting wideout options.

Alongside these guys, we have Travis Etienne coming off a 39-point DK game, Alvin Kamara coming off back-to-back games with 24+ touches, Kyren Williams in a great matchup, Raheem Mostert potentially seeing a few more touches, and several other backs worth considering from there.

Put it all together, and this shapes up as a really fun week. Although game totals are low, potential for 30-point scores feels high, which should make for fun tourney play.

I’m looking forward to diving deeper into what this slate provides, and to hanging out with you on the site throughout the weekend.

20% Off Rest-Of-Season ::

Just a heads up:

If you don’t have an OWS subscription, code OWS20 saves you 20% off a rest-of-season sub. 

Shoutout To Those Who Took The Plunge ::

If you joined Props Insider last week and bet full units on all recommended bets, you paid for your subscription.

Props Insider profit is now at $9,837 — before NBA has tipped off. Last year, we made 92 units ($9,200) in NBA alone!

If you’re looking for edges and wanting to maximize the money you’re able to make through DFS and related areas, Props Insider is a good place to be. Remember: these inefficiencies in the prop-betting market might not be here in four or five years, so this is the time to maximize the money you can make in this area. (Those who bought this package at the beginning could legitimately end up making $15,000 to $20,000 on the year. From betting props. Which is absolutely nuts!)

Along those lines :: the start of NBA season is typically a good time for exploiting inefficiencies. (As I learned last year: You don’t have to follow the sport; you just have to follow the bets!)

Hopefully I’ll see you in Props Insider soon. (Only 204 spots left!)

And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday.

-JM