Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!!!
Welcome to Week 5!
Even with the weeks seemingly flying by, just typing “Week 5” feels jarring. It feels like yesterday that the season commenced. But here we are, roughly one month into the campaign and we have a new kind of week, sprinkled with bye weeks, our first London game, and some really great matchups. More on those in a moment…
First, something I was thinking about this week that some of you may also come across: Why do parlays never win?
I’ll be clear, I don’t bet parlays. But there’s a reason why they are such a popular way to gamble on live sports. Risk a little, win a lot. Simple as that.
With the explosion of legalized sports gambling in the United States recently, I had this thought when I saw the 17th promotion of the weekend encouraging me to sign up for a sportsbook or a new site for the excitement of risking a little and winning a lot.
I couldn’t fault anyone that does this, because again, when thought through correctly, with correlation, information, and randomness, parlays can hit big. But the real reason I don’t venture into parlays (or at least never into more than two or three legs) is because it’s so rare to get many isolated predictions right at the same time.
Last week, we talked on the site all weekend about how the Commanders // Cardinals game was the game to target. Even in hindsight with how the game played out (huge Washington win), that sentiment was correct. However, when assessing the prospects of the game, it’s likely that many of us looked at it as a binary situation. Your thoughts (and mine too) at the first level were either A) this game will shoot out and control the leaderboards, or B) this game will fail and I will fade it.
When I penned Willing to Lose, it occurred to me how unlikely either of those outcomes could be, or rather how just as likely it would be for the other two outcomes to emerge: One team succeeds while the other one fails (and the reverse). Four (roughly) possible outcomes and one game. Yet our instincts would probably jump to only two of those outcomes. So, I wrote about the middle two outcomes in Willing to Lose, about what could happen if one team dominated the game. This game flopping would have been an 0-2 outcome (both teams failing), while one team succeeding and the other failing was a 1-2 outcome (50% prediction success vs. 100%). Why try to get everything right?
Similarly, I’m reminded of last year’s Thanksgiving slate. Three games with three big favorites (each spread was at least a touchdown): Packers // Lions, Commanders // Cowboys, and 49ers // Seahawks. I posited at the time about which underdog would win, expecting one of them to win outright based on the sheer fact that randomness occurs, and it was unlikely that all three favorites would win and cover. It ended up being the Packers that day, as they upset the Lions while the Cowboys and 49ers rolled. And onward we went.
I learned a lesson that day which I am continuing to be reminded of. Expect variance, always. (Note: see how the MLB playoffs are starting to shake out). When things seem too straightforward, understand how rare it is for those situations to play out that way. Back to last week’s example, this is why we write as many words as we do on OWS. Because the logic and thinking behind making predictions are more important than the predictions themselves.
Take any content provider, take any piece, on any week. Go back and look at The Scroll, even (we strive to be humble!). There are going to be excellent points made, strategies given, and even player picks, and there are also going to be similar takes that fall on the complete other side of the spectrum. Every single week.
The important takeaway is that sifting through the good and the bad is your job. We’ll always preach that we don’t know what will happen on Sunday. But we will try to give you reasons why and why not to consider, and we will give our points of view on how we (OWS contributors) are seeing things. The rest is up to you.
Refining how we digest information, and sharpening our view on what we do with information is what should help us get better and better every week.
This is why even a no-doubt, can’t-miss, long-shot parlay will likely lose. Because even the most logical patterns, data, and matchups can result in random outcomes. The best bettors in the world have large sample sizes and still strive to be right only six of every ten times. That is what we call profit, and it should serve as a reminder of how much season is still in front of us as we head into Week 5…
So, with that as a backdrop, let’s play loose in Week 5. We don’t have to get it all right, we just need to beat our competition.
A manageable ten-game slate awaits, with what could be the highest-scoring slate on the season so far. We have nine teams (of 20) projected to score over 23 points, with four of those contests looking at a 47+ point total. We also have two games of the ten looking bleak, with both the Dolphins // Patriots and Broncos // Raiders carrying 36-point totals. All of this to say, we have a relatively high degree of confidence of where points will be scored this week and which games to target (a modest eight matchups).
The 49ers lead the way this week with a 28.5 team total hosting the Cardinals. Arizona inexplicably chose not to attack the Commanders through the air repeatedly in last week’s drubbing and gets no break now traveling to San Francisco. The Niners hung a 30-spot on the Patriots at home last week, while also leaving some points on the field. We should expect a lot of the same this week.
Baltimore (26) goes to Cincinnati (23.5) in an important divisional matchup where both teams continue to trail the Steelers in the AFC North. The Bengals probably need this win more than the Ravens, but with how Baltimore dismantled Buffalo’s defense last week, how do we think Cincy’s defensive unit will hold up? The Bengals coasted and then almost blew their first win of the season against the Panthers last Sunday, but their offense comes in with the most confidence they’ve had all season with running back (Brown/Moss) and wide receiver tandems (Chase/Higgins) that believe they can dominate.
Green Bay (25.75) at the Rams (22.75) carries a 48.5 total in a matchup that brings offensive talent and defensive liability. The health of the Packers’ defense could be a big factor in this one, because if they enter the game with the same lineup that the Vikings torched last week (no Jaire Alexander, Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark) this game has a higher likelihood of producing a shootout. Jordan Love back under center and a vertical passing game seems to dictate the Packers should be just fine on offense here.
Buffalo (24.25) at Houston (23.25) will have some appeal as a sneakier spot for upside for almost the simple fact that it’s Josh Allen vs. C.J. Stroud. Nico Collins will continue his quest to be known as the top receiver in football, but if Joe Mixon makes it back, it may serve as too tempting for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to run the ball at a 50/50 split after watching what Derrick Henry did to this Bills defense last week. Allen, meanwhile, should be motivated to rebound and reclaim his spot at the top of the NFL MVP ladder after a prime-time performance to forget.
Everybody’s darling, the Washington Commanders (23.5), host the Cleveland Browns (20.5), a game where we will have to ask ourselves the question: Kliff Kingsbury or Jim Schwartz? Or does the presence of Jayden Daniels prove that conversation futile? Do we continue to ride the Daniels wave or side with the defensive coordinator and unit (led by Myles Garrett) to disrupt and dismantle? The game environment itself doesn’t jump off the page, as the Browns have failed to score 20 points in all four games this season. It’s also an interesting note that the Commanders and Browns are two of four NFL teams yet to record an interception this season.
The locker-room-is-on-fire Jaguars have a healthy implied total (24.5) hosting the Colts (21.5), who may or may not have Anthony Richardson at the helm. If it’s Joe Flacco, fresh off his win off the bench last week, will the field invest in the idea of a repeat performance of when he led the NFL in passing yards and the Browns to the playoffs down the stretch last season? Could that start this week, or would we be a week early? It seems likely that even if Richardson is healthy enough to play, the Colts’ coaches could get pressured into keeping him on the sideline after getting scrutinized for inserting him back in the game after his first injury scare last week. For the Jags, your guess is as good as mine, but just know the public sentiment is incredibly low right now and they could get Evan Engram back this week.
And before we get out of here, we have to mention the Seahawks and their 25-point implied total in a matchup with the Giants that will surely have a lot of survivor-pool ramifications. Losing to Detroit on Monday Night Football was no embarrassment, as Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, and most important, Geno Smith, all had season-best performances. That was an easy game to get up for. This home matchup with Daniel Jones and the team who can’t score touchdowns in the red zone could be a trap. Or, it could be a continuation of offensive dominance for Seattle after it was humbled with its first loss of the season. Defense shouldn’t take games off, but Seattle’s unit has something to prove after what Detroit did to it.
There are storylines everywhere again this week. Not everything you read will be right or wrong. Don’t put the pressure on yourself to get it all right.
Read it, listen to it, interpret it, and act on it. That’s your job. And just build, baby!
We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday!
~Larejo
