Thursday, Oct 6th
Monday, Oct 10th

Angles 3.22

Happy Thursday!

New members: Every Thursday morning, we send out the Angles email — in which we take a critical, “overview” look at the slate ahead.

The Lay Of The Land ::

Week: 3

Total Main Slate Games: 13

Slate Overview:

Six.

Seis.

Sechs.

6.

Spell it out however you want, the number remains the same.

Yes, it’s Week 3 — but SIX is the critical number, as there are six teams on the Main Slate this weekend with a Vegas-implied team total of 26.0 or higher.

The exact numbers have been pushing and pulling as these games search for their sweet spots, but as of this writeup, here’s what we have:

29.25 — Bills at Dolphins
29.25 — Vikings vs Lions
28.25 — Chiefs at Colts
27.25 — Chargers vs Jags
26.75 — Eagles at Commanders
26.0 — Rams at Cardinals

After a Week 2 in which eight teams were playing in Island Games with Top Offenses featured heavily on those slates, this week gives us A) no teams on bye, B) our standard six teams in Island Games, and C) no implied team totals in the Island Games over 23.25 (with a practically-unbelievable five of those six teams projected to score 21.75 or fewer points). All hail the Main Slate this week!

In addition to those six teams listed above, we have a potentially angry, “problem-solving to get our offense back on track” Bengals team (implied for 25.0) traveling to take on the Jets (the Bengals could go into “win the ballgame” mode, and nothing much will come of this spot; but would it be absolutely surprising if Zac Taylor instead decided to go Burrow-heavy to build confidence/momentum against a poor pass rush and poor secondary?), and we also have a Lions offense that is 100%, absolutely, without-a-doubt better than the public really realizes (ninth in Drive Success Rate, third in points per drive, eighth in early-season offensive DVOA, second in points per game — all in spite of having played a very tough Philly defense in one of their two games), taking on a Minnesota defense that currently ranks 30th in DVOA and 23rd in opponent drive success rate (pro tip: Detroit’s defense is also #notgood; Minnesota’s offense is also good/explosive; Detroit has played at the top situation-neutral pace in the NFL so far, while Minnesota is a respectable middle of the pack). None of this even includes the fact that the Raiders have a soft matchup against Tennessee (their implied team total is a middling 23.75, but would it shock you if they were to finally put together a strong top-to-bottom performance and score four or five touchdowns?), or the fact that Miami and their explosive pieces are playing opposite Buffalo, or the fact that the shorthanded Packers and Bucs are playing one another.

Obviously, it’s Thursday as these Angles are reaching you — which means NFL Edge games will be rolling onto the site throughout the day, DFS Interpretations will be rolling onto the site tonight and tomorrow, and The Scroll will be filling up with content tomorrow and Saturday. We’ll have plenty of time to get into the deeper specifics on these individual spots as we move deeper into the weekend.  But before we get there…

How Do We Handle A Slate Like This?

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