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OWS Fam!!!
Here are three words you can say to yourself on repeat this week: Process over results.
Whether you won big in Week 1, came up empty, or finished somewhere in between, Week 2 should be about sticking to the process.
It’s hard to effectively separate ourselves from outcomes, but it’s something we should strive for across many aspects of our lives. I don’t know about you, but my earliest memory of this concept comes from when I was a child listening to a parent tell me that it didn’t matter if I won or lost, but just that I had fun playing.
We kind of know even as kids that this is relatively untrue. Sure, some of us are born more competitive than others, but who doesn’t like to win?! And yet, even as the adults around us tried to support us and be positive, and to enjoy the journey we were on, it likely still took a while to sink in.
Eventually, I’d be willing to bet that the more you focused on doing your best on the task at hand, you naturally improved at separating yourself from the finishing outcome. Controlling what you can control and putting your all into it was about all you could do in any competition.
Well, separating ourselves from outcomes and sticking to our process is applicable here during “overreaction week.”
There’s a reason Bill Belichick was famous for saying the most important play was the next play. It’s because creating the simplistic mindset of compartmentalizing previous results with future expectations is what will give us the best chance to succeed.
So whether you won or lost, welcome back for Week 2. Recognize that much of the field will have a hard time this week separating last week and this week, and yet we know that Week 1 outcomes have no bearing on how this week will turn out. I guess that’s why we call this One Week Season!
Before we look at the slate, we need to talk about the wins! We saw some extra large payouts for the OWS Fam in Week 1, starting with opening night. Check out our post on X that highlighted these, but this incredible community has already taken down payouts ranging from $10,000 to $98,000.
We LOVE to see our users flying the flag at the top of leaderboards every week, and Week 1 was no different. We know we have an edge on slates that are loaded with uncertainty, and it’s good to see the results follow!
Reminder :: Week passes and Month passes are available for the Bink Machine optimizer. The OWS community is uniquely equipped to succeed in mass-multi-entry, but honestly, if you’re putting enough money into play each week to justify the cost, the Bink Machine can be massively helpful for even more limited-entry play, as it can give you a leg up in understanding optimal lineups, how the field might look to build in a given week, common roster construction approaches for the week, and more. There can be an intimidation factor when using an opto for the first time, so we also have tutorial videos to help you understand what you’re working with.
Week passes. Month passes. Awesome options.
Try it. If you don’t like it, or it isn’t for you, let us know. We’re always happy to send you a refund if something isn’t a fit.
Welcome to Week 2, which I’m officially going to dub “the one where everyone plays a running quarterback.” Hope that catches on…
Seriously, though, of all the results from Week 1, the macro outcome that cannot be overstated is how much success Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, and Lamar Jackson had. They finished with four of the top five QB fantasy scores on the week, only to somehow let Baker Mayfield crash the party.
As we look ahead to Week 2, we don’t have Allen and the Bills on the slate, but we can reasonably expect all of Richardson, Daniels, and Lamar to garner strong ownership, with users flocking to the insane rushing outputs they each produced in the opening week. Deviating away from these three could be a simple, unique approach, but let’s dive in to see what jumps out.
Missing from this slate are the aforementioned Bills and the Dolphins, along with the Texans, Bears, Falcons, and Eagles. Which means we won’t get the chance to roster Allen, Tyreek Hill, or the NFL’s leading passer in Week 1 (Tua). We also are given a week’s break from trying to identify which of the Texans’ wide receivers will have a big day and spared having to watch the Falcons or Bears try to play competent offense.
But some of the implied totals we have are sure to bring your eyes toward them…
The Lions lead the way at a robust 29 implied points as they host the Buccaneers (22) in their second consecutive rematch from last season’s playoffs. That one ended 31-23 in favor of Detroit and it was the second matchup for these teams in the 2023 season (DET also won at TB in Week 6 when they had Goff throw it 44 times to just 22 rushing attempts).
The Cowboys and the Chiefs are expected to score 26.5 points as they match up with the Saints and Bengals, respectively. Dallas hosting the suddenly high-flying Saints could feature two overconfident teams based on last week’s results. Kansas City, on the other hand, gets the Bengals at home in a game they are likely to show up for still sulking from last week’s surprise loss against New England.
The 49ers (26 implied points), who somehow ruined a dominating MNF victory over the Jets by creating a media saga with how they are handling the Christian McCaffrey injury situation, travel to Minnesota (20) to take on a Vikings team that beat them, 22-17, in the same environment last season. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions in that one and Minnesota DC Brian Flores is likely to bring the heat again this week.
The Rams (25) and Cardinals (24) match up in what’s expected to be the closest spread of the high-total games, with Los Angeles obviously down Puka Nacua and Arizona coming off a terrible loss at Buffalo last week. This one has the potential to be a shootout, as the Cardinals’ defense isn’t likely to get better after giving up 34 points to the Bills, while the Rams’ defense was also exploited by the Lions last week as they learn about life after Aaron Donald.
The Ravens are the last team of this group expected to score over 25 points on this slate, hosting the Raiders in what Vegas (the sportsbooks, not the team) expects to be a one-sided affair. Can Gardner Minshew right last week’s wrongs and deliver on a Ravens defense the Chiefs were able to exploit? If the Ravens’ defense does take a step back this season, this is the game that would highlight that.
Outside of the more obvious spots, here’s a few more questions to be asked ahead of Week 2:
Week 2 is also the first real week we’ll contend with more injury news, but as you sift through this slate, try to be aware of some of these macro events from Week 1 and how they will affect thinking in building lineups this week.
Two different weeks, with different matchups, different news, and one fact: Week 2 is a one-week season.
And with that, we’ll see you all over the site this weekend, out in the Discord channels, and at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday evening!
~Larejo
