Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
The NFL season is long. It’s okay to say it.
After a “double main slate” Week 13 with Thanksgiving mixed in, Week 14’s arrival feels a bit to me like it’s coming a day too soon. If you played both slates last week, you know this feeling. We’re emerging from one of the first peaks of the NFL season, we’re entering the last quarter of the schedule, and some of us are staring down the Best Ball regular season as it comes to a close. Focus is key this week, as it’s going to take additional motivation for many to lock in and clean the slates to prepare for the next one.
Whether you have this feeling or you don’t is irrelevant; the real relevance is that the majority of our opponents will be slow to get going this week. Any kind of slowdown in research leads to lazy lineups, so I have one request this week: Let’s be here to take advantage of it.
Like it or not, we are all part of the field. So, when you have a thought, a feeling, or an ounce of success or frustration, it’s exactly those events that we can leverage and take advantage of. In preparation for Week 14, everyone is thinking about ripping through their process with speed. The chalk will be chalkier if the low-cost running back is getting a full-time role. The chalk will be chalkier for the high-cost running back getting his best matchup on the season. The stacks will be more obvious in the expected high-scoring environment with two teams that can put up points with ease. The bad teams will be expected to lose, and the good teams will be expected to win.
By Week 14, our brains will tell us we know what we’re seeing. And in Week 14, it’s important to remember that we know what we have seen, but we don’t know what we will see this week or going forward.
Team X will make the playoffs. Team Y will miss the playoffs. Team Z is playing for next season. Team A is more motivated this week. Team B has to play the young guys now. Team C has a new coach looking to get good film. Some of these will be true in Week 14. Some will be false. Let everyone else conclude the obvious before the week while we look for angles on this main slate.
There are ten games upcoming, with six teams on their bye in the final week of byes for the season. We’ll have more games to break down next week, but we’ll get there when we do. For now, we have a ten-gamer, and at first glance we have…
…Eight teams projected to score 20.5 points or fewer (Jets, Falcons, Bears, Raiders, Jags, Giants, Browns, Panthers)
…Six teams projected to score 25+ (Eagles, Bills, Steelers, Bucs, Dolphins, Vikings)
…and six teams in between (Seahawks, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams)
Said in a pessimistic manner, 14 of the 20 teams are likely to score less than 25 points this week, which leaves us with many of these games not likely to jump out on paper. So, other than the Bills/Rams (total is 49.5), there isn’t a good view overall for this slate to become a high-scoring one.
However, in the spirit of doing things differently, let’s tilt these games on their heads to shake out the positive outcomes and see how they could develop into high-scoring affairs:
Bills // Rams – An expected shootout to approach 50 points. Josh Allen is the clear MVP of the league at the moment and could get Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman back this week. They also clinched the AFC East (already) with a win on Sunday Night Football. The Rams, on the other hand, are fighting tooth and nail with their division mates, who are all within two games to be the best in the NFC West. Translation: The Rams need this game more than Buffalo, but Buffalo can score when pushed. If L.A. can find early success and we get a trailing-Allen game script, this one could truly explode.
Raiders // Bucs – Baker Mayfield’s health and Todd Bowles’ defense are fulcrums in this one. On paper, this looks like a Tampa Bay smash spot, with its blitz-happy defense and an offense that is built to attack one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. But, the Raiders were chippy down the stretch last season, and they proved the same against the Chiefs on Black Friday. Bryce Young had his best game of the season last week against Tampa, and statistically speaking, so did Aidan O’Connell against KC. If AOC shows up with confidence and Baker is a bit unsettled, we could see a good game with offensive fireworks.
Panthers // Eagles – Another expected one-sided affair on paper, so the question is whether it can evolve into a tournament-winning spot. It feels like the likelihood is slimmer here based on a few factors like the Eagles strength (running the rock) aligning perfectly with the Panthers’ defense’s greatest weakness (stopping the run). But, with Bryce seemingly more confident and a dual rushing attack with Hubbard and Brooks, a few long Panthers runs would send this game down an unexpected path.
Falcons // Vikings – You’ll have nightmares thinking about immobile Kirk Cousins against his former defense in Minnesota who loves to blitz, but with a smart QB like Cousins, he likely won’t look as bad as he did last week against the Chargers. The Vikings blitz the most in the NFL, and the Chiefs are second. Atlanta played KC to a five-point game in primetime back in Week 3, and Cousins threw only one pick and took only two sacks. He wasn’t perfect, but unless he’s hurt, and with the notes he has on a Brian Flores defense, it’s at least plausible the Falcons’ offense outperforms expectations here. Minnesota seems comfortable in what it does, but what they need to do is let Justin Jefferson get into the end zone for the first time since Week 7 this week.
Seahawks // Cards – The total on this game is lower than expected and you probably remember the touchdown-less game just two weeks ago, but as the AFC North teaches us, division games always bring a wide range of outcomes with them. The coaches know each other and gamesmanship runs amok, so if it seems like this game is boring and is getting low ownership, it could be one to pounce on. Talent + divisional foes + division lead up for grabs + good QB play. That’s the positive scenario for this game.
Bears // 49ers – Chicago’s first game with a new interim HC (who was the interim OC) will be interesting. A new coach bump is the easiest boost to label this with, but with the 49ers’ defense (and offense) ailing, there’s a clear path to the Bears putting up 25+ points if Caleb can straighten out. San Francisco’s side of the ball is the engine. Without CMC and Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo will be asked to carry the load alongside Deebo, Kittle, Jauan, and Purdy. We’ve finally entered the must-win phase for San Francisco, so they should come out hungry, but how Chicago approaches this game will be fascinating.
Steelers // Browns – See Seahawks/Cards above with the only edit being erratic QB play instead of “good”. Realize for this one that the surprise shootouts that developed in both of these teams’ games last week (Steelers/Bengals and Browns/Broncos) likely inflates ownership a bit, but also seems to be an obvious identity for each team when pushed into the situation.
That’s it for this week. It’s going to be an underrated week to dive in and dissect. Fight the urge to take this slate at first glance as underwhelming. Instead, take the optimist point of view and see the scenarios where points are scored in bunches.
And take those thoughts all the way to the top of the leaderboards on Sunday.
I’ll see you there!
~Larejo
