Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
Who’s ready for Week 12?!
I was listening to a popular podcast this past Monday when the hosts started talking about the NFL playoff picture for the first time this season. While it’s too early to do so, it’s not surprising to hear it discussed because it’s good content for the fans. It’s right around this time of year when we start to envision our favorite team making a playoff run in the new year and dreaming about a Super Bowl victory. It’s the NFL’s job to keep us hooked all season long!
Even though we’re just entering Week 12, my gut reaction when listening to this segment around what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today was that as much as things change, they tend to stay the same. The NFL likes to have playoff turnover year to year. Some seasons it’s massive, and some it’s just a few new teams in with old teams out. Parity is good for the league as they want as many fans as possible to be tuning in and attending games as late as possible into each season.
One of the factors the NFL puts in place to help them achieve this playoff turnover is in the creation of the NFL schedule. Taken directly from the NFL website, here is how the schedules break down for each team:
I’m less concerned with the details of all 17, but more importantly, I want you to pay attention to the three games determined by the bold text. Those three games will come against opponents who finished in the same place in their division the previous season. This is why we get Bills and Chiefs frequently, why the 49ers have a harder schedule this season than the Cardinals, and so on and so forth.
It’s just one factor, but despite what has seemed to some like an insane 11 weeks so far of football, look at the current AFC playoff picture with seeding: 1) Chiefs 2) Bills 3) Steelers 4) Texans 5) Chargers 6) Ravens 7) Broncos. The next four out are the Colts, Dolphins, Bengals, and Jets. The order may not be what we expected in August, but at least five of the seven teams are right where we thought they would be, with Pittsburgh and Denver the exceptions. We could talk about the ups and downs of the season, but really, there is one big surprise in the AFC, and it’s the win/loss record of the Bengals.
On the NFC side, it’s a bit more chaotic, but with chances to normalize in the next two weeks: 1) Lions 2) Eagles 3) Cardinals 4) Falcons 5) Vikings 6) Packers 7) Commanders. The next four out are the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, and Buccaneers. The Cards, Vikes, and Commanders are likely surprises where they are seeded, with the 49ers, Seahawks, and Cowboys all a bit lower than anticipated so far. But again, a few more games in the coming 7-10 days and this could look more in line with our collective expectations.
I thought this was useful to go through at this point in the NFL (DFS) calendar because I think it illustrates how to get things right. If you were asked to predict the playoffs before the season, there’s a zero-percent chance you would have taken all of last year’s playoff teams in a conference and removed them for seven new ones. That would have been too contrarian and unrealistic. If instead, you were rational about it, you would have landed somewhere that more properly reflects where we are now 12 weeks into a season — about four or five teams repeat teams, with maybe three or four new teams in the mix. After all, you know those top seeds will face a harder strength of schedule and you know there will be some random outcomes during the course of an NFL season. If you were really trying to predict things correctly, you’d go after some sort of logical and chaotic mix.
The same structure should apply when we go after a first-place DFS roster. The art of prediction is imperfect and impossible. We know that in a small sample (one game or one week) anything can happen. But we also know that on any given slate we’re going to have a lot of information to arm us in the best way possible such as expected game totals, injuries, matchups, positional scarcity, projected ownership, and more. We want to build for “anything can happen” scenarios, while also accounting for the rational information at our disposal.
We’re not trying to build lineups around perfect predictions. We are trying to outscore other DFS players and their entries to take home the best possible reward. In order to do this, you have to think like a season-long mindset inside of a one-game sample. Recognize that over the long haul, most performances will normalize (it’s why regression is a thing), and so if that’s the case, there will be peaks and valleys along the way. Mix it all up and you want to be left with a prediction set that is sensible, yet uncharted, because that type of roster (prediction) would be full of outcomes that actually can happen and wouldn’t be deemed outrageous at kickoff.
We’ll take a slightly different approach this week. With another 10-game slate on the horizon (six teams on bye), and with a whole slew of studs missing from this slate at each position, let’s see how valuable it can be to look at some of the games through an off-script lens. (For any Inner Circle members who were also around last season, I penned a short piece called “Off Script” on specific primetime showdown slates to complement Xandamere’s analysis and breakdowns. I miss those a bit but mostly because it forced me to really think through thin-but-possible-outcomes. Small sample, but we hit a few throughout the season.)
In going off script, we’re taking the games below and turning them on their sides to expose a possible game environment that many won’t expect. In large-field GPP play, or on Showdown slates, this can be a valuable approach if you can hit these outcomes right. Note as we go through that each path we can identify won’t be the most unlikely thing to happen, but rather, a possible, specific route to an outcome we could all envision.
Lions (29) // Colts (21.5): This game has the highest implied total on the slate, being boosted by the Lions 29+ implied team total. At face value, the natural reaction to this game is to see the Lions doing the same thing to the Colts that they did to the Jags in Week 11. The primary difference, however, is the Colts’ offense should have more success than Jacksonville (based solely on implied totals). You’ll see more Lions overstacks this week, less hesitation to play guys like Goff and St. Brown, and likely some love for Anthony Richardson after his comeback performance at the Jets. If Indy can stay relatively close here, an overlooked Jonathan Taylor could be the reason why. If they can keep him on the field, which the Colts would like to do, that means the Lions’ offense is off the field. Taylor’s rushing matchup stinks on paper, but maybe the Colts can be creative in how they use him.
Cards (24) // Seahawks (23): A one-point spread and a 47-point total should spell fantasy goodness, and as of this writing it seems most of the public money is indeed on the over. That’s likely because of Seattle proving it’s comfortable betting on Geno’s arm in any game (leads the NFL with 37 pass attempts per game) while Arizona’s offense has looked great at home in its last two games (average of 30 points vs. Bears, Jets). A slow, dragged-out slugfest played through the running games is in play, with James Conner and Kenneth Walker picking up most of the work. The Cardinals have five games already this season with more than 169 team rushing yards (league average is about 113). Coincidentally, Seattle gives up the fifth-most yards per rush attempt in the league.
49ers (22.75) // Packers (24.75): The other featured late-window game this Sunday is these now-rivals matching up yet again after the Niners have knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in three of the past five seasons (2023, 2021, 2019). This game has a similar 47.5-point total, and if Green Bay had lost last week to Chicago, the narrative would have been much different. San Francisco is being pegged as the team that is much more obviously struggling, but the Pack have also not been what we expected. Of note is that their last three wins have all been by three points or less. So whether you believe in a 49ers renaissance now or not, this 7-3 against 5-5 matchup is closer than it appears. The only prudent thing to do would be to play this as a one-sided game, with either team in a dominant victory, as you won’t find that expected outcome anywhere you look on paper.
Cowboys (17.5) // Commanders (27.5): Beyond the three above, every other game on this slate involves a team implied for less than 20 points. This includes the Cowboys here in Washington, where the Commanders are expected to dominate this game. The data points to Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington rushing attack, and if Jayden Daniels is hurting more than we know, it could be a game where the ball is deflated and Washington runs, runs, runs. It’s not likely on a short week (and with Thanksgiving looming) that Dallas keeps up with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance at QB, so the obvious off-script path here is Washington winning via the air and Daniels, McLaurin, and others.
Chiefs (27) // Panthers (16): There’s almost no logical scenario here where Carolina keeps up…unless you can foresee a downright ugly game, where both teams score in the teens ala Denver’s blueprint against KC a few weeks ago. The only problem is Carolina’s defense is not Denver’s. Carolina should lean on Chuba Hubbard as much as possible, but it will be a real challenge to find any success against a defense allowing the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. What version of the KC team we get will dictate this outcome, but if it goes off script, it’s likely by neither offense succeeding much.
Patriots (19.5) // Dolphins (26.5): Miami with a healthy implied total hosting the cold-weather team in the Florida heat usually spells success. The Patriots have been hanging around with Drake Maye in recent weeks while their offensive weapons (is Kendrick Bourne a weapon now?) and the defensive unit (Christian Barmore) gets a bit healthier. The Patriots upset here is the off-script outcome I am seeing, if we think Maye can find success and New England can win in the trenches on both sides. This likely only happens if Miami doesn’t capitalize in the red zone and settles for field goals, as it’s likely they will have no problem moving the ball on the Patriots’ defense. Can the Pats’ offense put up 24 points? Would anyone be shocked if Miami blew one at home to a divisional opponent? I’ll be watching ownership here to see how to play this on both sides.
That’s six of the 10 on the slate to give you a feel for some possible ways we can size these up. I didn’t mention the Bucs, Broncos, Texans, or Vikings who are all favorites as well, and who are in matchups they can win. The Vikings and Texans have had a few weeks now of not much working on offense (except the Houston running game), while the Bucs will come out of their bye week healthier against Tommy Cutlets and the Giants, and the Broncos want to continue their winning ways against Vegas.
In theory, anything can happen this week. But in reality, it’s not just anything. We still have some season-long targets to hit. Every small sample is a data point in a larger sample, and since we’ll always be able to more properly identify the long-range outcomes, regression is a powerful tool.
You know these teams. You can see the ways these games can play out. Go build and go win. All it takes is one week to make your season!
And with that, we’ll see you on the site, hanging out in Discord, and building winning lineups in the Bink Machine this weekend!
Good luck!
~Larejo
