Happy Thursday!
New members: Every week (typically Thursday morning; Friday morning this week), we send out the Angles email — in which we take a critical, “overview” look at the slate ahead.
But first…
Our annual “Black Friday” sale is back!
>> Take 50% off ALL coursesin the DFS Education Marketplace (if you’re not familiar with these :: the first lesson of every course is FREE; each course is packed full of “had to have it” DFS training)
>> Take 75% off(!!!) rest-of-season OWS-DFS and Inner Circle
BOTH of these deals end after Monday Night Football, 11/28.
If you’re an OWS Free member, and you want to scoop rest-of-season access to OWS DFS or Inner Circle, go here.
If you’re an OG member of OWS DFS and want to add rest-of-season access to Inner Circle, go here.
Week: 12
Total Main Slate Games: 11
Slate Overview:
Firstly: FATIGUE.
We see it every year on the Main Slate following Thanksgiving. A lot of DFS content is less sharp (there was a popular site last year whose content was downright laughable! — like, ‘Did you guys forget that there was a slate after Thanksgiving? Were you hungover when you put this together?’), and a lot of DFS players are going through the motions on a shorter week with the Thanksgiving Slate already behind them. How do we take advantage of this? By putting in our typical level of focus // preparation! Every edge counts. Grab this edge this week.
Secondly:
We’ve gotten used to this, so this shouldn’t be surprising; but we have 22 teams on the Main Slate this weekend, and 17 of these teams are implied to score 24 or fewer points.
The exceptions are ::
30.5 – Miami
28.75 – Kansas City
26.25 – San Francisco
25.75 – LA Chargers
25.5 – Seattle
Miami is favored by two touchdowns at home over a hapless Texans team that ranks 29th in defensive DVOA and 31st in offensive DVOA — with that first number creating one of the bigger mismatches we’ll see all season against a Miami team that ranks second overall in offensive DVOA. The most interesting component for us to dig into here will be how the Dolphins will choose to attack, as Houston can be attacked any way, but they are facing the lowest opponent pass play rate in the NFL. The Miami passing attack can smash here, but will they “get there” at their attached price tags? Is Jeff Wilson’s role in this offense for real? These will be key questions on the slate.
