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OWS Fam!!!
25-25. As in 25 wins and 25 losses that I have in my NFL pick ’em pool this season. I’ve participated in this medium-stakes pick’em pool for about ten years now. It’s grown in size, the payouts are enticing, and the premise is what keeps me coming back. It’s simple, pick any five NFL games against the spreads each week. That’s it. The lines lock on Wednesday evening, and you get until kickoff to make your picks.
As simple as it sounds, of my ten seasons participating, I don’t believe I’ve ever finished with a greater than 60% winning percentage. If memory serves, we had someone take down the pool one season around 68% correct (which is insane) but other than that outlier, if you can simply go 3-2 each week with a 4-1 or 5-0 week sprinkled in there, you are sitting pretty.
I don’t focus much on this pool, but of the time I do spend on it, it’s awfully depressing to think that it’s been an utter waste of my time this season. To go 25-25 in a pool like this requires little to no experience, luck, or anything of the sort. I’m fairly sure I have family members who have not watched a down of football and they could have posted the same record. Yet, despite my troubles so far this season, I am always changing the way I approach my selections.
Some weeks, I’ll pick the first five games. Others, I’ll only take favorites, then underdogs, then I’ll do the logical thing of following the line movement and grabbing the five most efficient lines with the best closing line value. All of that work, and yet my likely output is still between about 45% to 55% correct most years.
I am sure many of you can relate to this, as picking NFL lines is an inefficient game. Those lines have so much action on them that even getting released on a Wednesday does not leave much room for an edge. It’s why picking teams with a spread is a fool’s game. Hence, why player props have seen such a rise, because there IS an edge to be had there, in wider markets, with less weight carried on each line.
So why do I tell you about how terrible I am at picking games this season? Because my repeated futile attempts can leave me feeling incapable. And approaching any week with this feeling will be like pushing a snowball down a hill; it will only grow and grow and grow. This is the same resistance and resilience we need to show in many aspects of life.
Confidence plays in any arena. Whether you’ve seen success this season, or find yourself going back to the proverbial drawing boards for Week 11, just know that your mindset can dictate your outcomes. Feeling confident that this week could be your week is always the way to go.
I’ve often said, you won’t find anyone more confident in their lineups than me around 12:45pm EST before the games kick off on Sunday. I always think my lineups will crush. It can be to my detriment, as most weeks I will lose, but if we continue to work on separating ourselves from outcomes, we won’t have to worry much about past (or future) results. Does it matter that I likely could have picked 25 games right or wrong while blindfolded and throwing a dart at two targets on a wall? No, it doesn’t, because as far as I’m concerned I’ll go 10 out of my next 10. Because my prior results won’t creep into my approach in picking games, or building DFS lineups this week.
Week 11 brings with it a whole new puzzle to solve. Find your edge this week, and go get it done.
Without the presence of a game in Europe and another four teams on bye this week, we’re looking at an 11-game main slate on tap. At the risk of sounding repetitive, in what has become the norm this season, we have a whole slew of teams implied between 20 and 23 points, with a few teams ahead of the pack and a few others trailing behind. We’ll start at the top in just a second, but as you search for your edges this week, simply aligning your entries to teams expected to put up around three touchdowns is the sharp move.
We talk a lot at OWS about how to position your lineups so that when you win, you win big. In order to do that, you want to try your best to accept the right balance of logic and variance. As we’ve said, it doesn’t mean ignoring or taking the opposite approach than “the field”. But it does mean leaning into, slightly bending, and finding your edge within places that already have a somewhat logical path to upside. To put a cap on why this quick intro…you likely don’t want to stack any team implied for under 20 points this week (Patriots, Colts, Jags, Titans, Bears, Raiders. Note: stacking to me is at least three players from the same offense).
We have a few game environments that could “pop” off the page, but anytime we have an offense implied for 30 or more points, it warrants our attention. That offense this week is the Detroit Lions (30.25). Detroit is hosting Jacksonville in a game with about a 14-point spread as Jared Goff will square up with Mac Jones. The two head coaches in this game couldn’t be on more different trajectories, while the two quarterbacks inspire little faith at the moment. The Lions won a resilient game against Houston on Sunday night, with Goff throwing five interceptions, but a win is a win in the NFL. As they stare a 30-point total in the face this week, it’s important to note that the public has little faith in Goff right now and Jacksonville does not have the pass rush that Houston has. It’s likely not if the Lions will score this week but how, and whether or not Jacksonville can keep up at all.
There are three game environments that will draw the most attention on this slate, and rightfully so. Two of these carry healthy 48-point totals, and the third is the third. First, we have the Seahawks (20.75) // 49ers (27.75), where Seattle comes off its bye and likely brings DK Metcalf back to its offense. San Francisco would have scored around this total last week if Jake Moody had a better field-goal percentage, but with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold, Jauan Jennings assuming the Brandon Aiyuk void, and Ricky Pearsall healthy and active, they’re full of weapons (though we’ll have to watch George Kittle’s status). I talked in this space last week about the run that SF went on post-bye in 2023, and they will look for their second consecutive win after their Week 9 bye here. If Metcalf can get back on the field, we have a more confident JSN after his breakout game, and a healthier Seattle offensive line if they can also welcome back RT Abe Lucas. The simple combination of talent and coaching gives this game one of the best opportunities to explode on the slate.
Ravens (25.5) // Steelers (22.5) come together for their first meeting this season, where fantasy players cannot wait to continue to roster players against this beatable Baltimore secondary. It’s true that Baltimore’s defense has been wrecked by receiver after receiver this season, and they’ve been tough to run on, but the Ja’Marr Chase game will still bring many more clicks to George Pickens this week than could be warranted. We like to make DFS a simple game, but it surely can’t be this simple. If Pickens can deliver a 150-yard, two-score game I’ll stand corrected, but keep an eye out on ownership before you decide to build around the Pittsburgh passing attack. The Ravens’ offense, however, will continue to hum and score points, though the Steelers’ defense presents an above-average difficulty level for them. This is not the Bengals’ defense, nor that of the Broncos, whom they have pasted at about 38 points per game the last weeks.
Burying perhaps the most compelling game on the slate here, and that’s the Chiefs (22) visiting the Bills (24). There isn’t too much to be said here as we’ve seen these two teams match up many times over the years to mixed results (including playoffs, it’s 4-3 KC). Two things jump out at me here immediately: KC with only a 22-point implied total says a lot about how Buffalo’s defense has come on in recent weeks. And second, how will the Chiefs manage to win by less than a field goal to stay undefeated?
In terms of implied team totals, the Dolphins and their 25.5 stand out as seven-point favorites at home against the Raiders. Is this finally the week to play Tyreek Hill? We heard about the wrist issue he’s had for the first time on Monday night, when he finally got back into the end zone for the first time since Week 1. Vegas has been good against wide receivers (third best in total receiving yards allowed) but they do lead the league in missed tackles. It goes without saying, but the Dolphins have a lot of dudes who fit the category of “hard to tackle due to speed.”
The Rams have a similar game in front of them, implied to put up 24 points against an uninspiring, but oddly comfortable-with-themselves New England Patriots team (19.5). Stafford should have a healthy Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams, and (price-agnostic), this trio alone should account for 70% or more of the Rams offensive production. We like condensity at OWS, and look no further than the Rams. Pricing won’t be our friend here, but despite a strong showing against the Bears last week, this is still a Patriots defense that ceded 73 points in two games just a few weeks back to the Texans and Jaguars.
The Browns (21.75) // Saints (22.75) and Falcons (20.5) // Broncos (23.25) matchups on paper look almost like mirror images. The expected game environments sit behind those ‘big three’, but the overall environments should depend on how Jameis Winston and Kirk Cousins perform early. If we get the gunslingers and a few interceptions on one side early, a blowout could occur. If we get some deep shots and long touchdowns, we’ll have a shootout on our hands. Both the Saints and the Broncos will likely be content in managing the game to simply finish with a win, so we get conservative coaches opposing risk-taking QBs. Let’s just say there could be a lot of different outcomes here.
Finally, yes, the Jets have a near 24-point total hosting Indianapolis, but please don’t forget they are still the Jets. Minnesota (23), with Sam Darnold doing his typical in-season fade, is traveling to Tennessee, who has been content playing slow-paced, low-scoring games lately. Not much excitement there. And that leaves the Packers (22.5) as the only team I’ve yet to mention, as they get the Bears in Chicago. We know how tough it is to predict which mouth Green Bay will feed on offense, but with OC Shane Waldron gone, could we see a spark in Chicago’s offense? It’s likely the Bears’ offensive performance will dictate what level this game goes to as well.
Thanks for coming with me on the ride of the Sunday games this week. As always, there are some obvious spots, some overlooked, and everything in between. We don’t know what scores will win GPPs this week, but we do have a good idea where points should come from. Play for the expected and the unexpected, and build your lineups like nobody’s watching.
We have so much in store for you on the site this weekend, so make sure to check the content channel in Discord, and as always, I’m looking forward to seeing your entries at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
~Larejo
