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Angles 10.23

Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam! —

Welcome to Week 10.

We’re entering the second half of the regular season, and we’re very much entering the stretch of the season where we start to see our greatest edge as a community. The last couple weeks have introduced the early stages of “the fatigue zone” for our competition, and our accumulation of 2023 information/knowledge about teams, coaches, and players is rounding into form in such a way that the most BASIC edge (“being better at knowing who the good plays are”) is reaching its broadest point.

We had another huge week from the OWS community in Week 9 (the Binks Channel was lighting up throughout Sunday evening), and while we’ve had a truly electric run throughout the first half of the season, this is just the beginning. The second half of the season is ours for the taking.

Let’s get to it.

Week 10 Angles:

One of the most effective ways to capture DST points in DFS is to simply ignore “what you know” about the defenses themselves, and to instead just pay attention to the quarterback each defense is playing. I bring this up for two reasons.

1) Last week’s list of “QBs we can very obviously consider picking on” included Jaren Hall, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien, Clayton Tune, and Aidan O’Connell (a list that doesn’t even include fringe “pick on” guys like Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, etc.).

2) This week’s list of “QBs we can very obviously consider picking on” includes Tommy DeVito…and that may be it.

True to recent form, a lot of the games on the weekend are giving us lower totals (out of 10 games, six have an Over/Under below 43.0), but among those lower-total games are Cleveland at Baltimore (the last time these teams played, in Cleveland, the Ravens scored 28, and Lamar Jackson put up a tourney-worthy score), Falcons at Cardinals (would it surprise us if Kyler Murray starts in this one, and this game plays to the upside?), and Giants at Cowboys (with the Cowboys implied to score 27.0 — the second-highest implied team total on the slate). Additionally, this slate provides us with C.J. Stroud and the Texans traveling to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals (the Bengals — at 27.25 — have the highest implied team total on the slate), Brock Purdy and the 49ers traveling to Jacksonville off their bye to see if they can start another streak of 30-point games against a Jags team that is capable of keeping pace, the Lions (25.5) traveling to take on the Chargers (23.0) in a clash of high-upside offenses, and the pass-happy (shootout-happy) Commanders traveling to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that will be looking to bounce back after getting embarrassed by the Ravens (Seattle is implied to score 26.0 points).

The Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Rams are all on bye this week, which removes plenty of superstar firepower from the slate, while the Bills and Raiders are also playing off the Main Slate, removing a couple more options the field prefers to flock to.

In addition to all of this, we have some serious recency bias that could impact the way our competition is attacking this slate, with some offenses and/or players who have underperformed lately entering good matchups and/or potential game environments, and with some offenses and/or players who have performed at a high level lately entering poor matchups and/or potential game environments.

Add it all together, and this could be one of the more interesting, wide-open slates — a slate with a decent shot at some high-end DFS scores being produced, but with a lot of different avenues down which these potential results could be pursued.

While we will have plenty to get into throughout the weekend (digging down into the second, third, and fourth layers of this slate), one of the thoughts I want to leave you with at the moment is this:

Separate this week from all others.

Don’t think of this week in the context of last week, or the week before, or the week before. Instead, think about what might happen on this week’s slate, in this week’s set of games.

The deeper into the season we get, the more whiplash our competition starts to feel (and the more confused they become), because they tend to put too much weight into “what happened,” assuming this will tell them what is going to happen moving forward. The deeper into the season we get, the more inconsistent the messaging of “what happened” becomes (i.e., teams develop throughout the season, and the NFL is a matchups-based league, and sometimes a team just simply has a really bad day or a really good day, and because of these factors, indicators gathered from “what happened” begin to conflict with one another, creating that whiplash confusion from people who spend too much time looking backward instead of looking forward), and we can gain a material edge on the field if we can instead learn to look toward “what might happen on this particular week.”

As always, we’ll be doing our best at OWS to sift through the noise and break down the games in a way that allows us to understand what is likeliest to happen in each spot — and we’ll also be doing our best to think about “what might happen,” and how we can take advantage of this.

We’ll attack with this mindset, and we’ll see where this slate takes us.

I’ll see you on the site throughout the weekend.

And as has been the case all season, I’ll see many of you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
-JM