New members: Every Thursday morning, we send out the Angles email — in which we take a critical, “overview” look at the slate ahead.
1. This is an easy week
2. This is a difficult week
If you’re an OWS Free member…
We’re putting your decisions on Easy Mode this week, with a new rest-of-season discount that allows you to join Inner Circle or OWS DFS for 50% OFF THE FULL-SEASON PRICE.
That’s 50% off!!!
A lot off!
Rest-of-season OWS DFS: $89.50
Rest-of-season Inner Circle: $114.50
Check out with code OWS50 to get the full experience.
Go here for your special OG discounts.
Total Main Slate Games: 10
Let’s start with this :: this is a difficult week.
Let’s continue with this :: we should LOVE difficult weeks.
This is similar to when an NFL coach is asked about weather conditions for an upcoming game, and they respond with something like, “The conditions will be the same for both sides” (that sounds like a direct quote from Belichick; apparently, I grew up in New England). Left unsaid here is the fact that a truly sharp coach will recognize that the weather conditions in question — due to being unique — create unique opportunities for his team to find an added edge by finding a better way than the opponent to account for this weather.
This NFL DFS week is difficult — but if it’s difficult for us, it’s also difficult for our competition, which means we can carve a unique edge by understanding how to tilt these difficulties to our advantage.
Throughout the weekend (in the NFL Edge, the Scroll, the Angles Pod, and the Slate Pod), we’ll be doing everything we can to carve advantages on this slate; but before we can truly find these advantages, we must first identify what the difficulties are.
Here are 3 things I’m seeing on this slate that will make it particularly difficult for the average DFS player:
Vegas is acting like they don’t expect Josh Allen to play (the Bills are implied for only 23.5 points at home against the Vikings), which leaves us with only Chicago (25.75 at home against the Lions), Miami (26.25 at home against the Browns), and Kansas City (30.0 at home against the Jags) with attractive Vegas-implied team totals. The Raiders are sporting a 24.25 total at home against the down-bad Colts, and the Cowboys are implied to score 24.0 on the road at Green Bay; each of the other 15 teams on this slate is implied to score 23.5 or fewer points.
When we look at a slate like this from a bird’s eye view, we often say something like, “This could be a lower-scoring DFS slate than usual” — but oftentimes when we say this, the slate ends up being surprisingly high-scoring. Realistically, this should be a lower-scoring slate, but it’s also very reasonable to think things could swing the other way. Our rosters have to account for this by making sure that “If this slate is higher-scoring than expected, we’re positioned to compete for first place with the way we’re building.”