Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
You made it, OWS fam!
After 207 days without meaningful NFL football, we have made it to Week 1. And boy oh boy, does OWS have you covered this season! (to the surprise of no one…!)
For any first timers joining the community this season, welcome! This group gets better every year and the 2024 season is going to be our biggest year yet.
We send the Angles email on Thursdays each week to provide a high-level overview of the Sunday Main Slate, giving you a first look of sorts into the week ahead (though for Week 1, who are we kidding, you’ve been checking out these matchups for months), including matchups to exploit, avoid, and invest in.
But before we do that here in Week 1, a few notes to orient you on what to expect in the days and weeks ahead.
It’s baaaaaack!!!
If you used the Bink Machine last year, it’s time to fire it up again.
If you didn’t use the Bink Machine (optimizer/lineup builder) last year, take it for a test drive with a Week pass!
This should be a lot of fun. A cool way for the OWS Fam to compete and hang out throughout the season(!).
Available Survivor Leagues:
(If you don’t have an account on Splash, it takes less than a minute to sign up. Time well spent!)
Now onto Week 1, let’s talk business.
I’m biased and I don’t want to tell you it’s downhill from here, but Week 1 is the best week of the season.
Why? Because we know nothing. We all know nothing. And while most sites will tell you they know more than they do and position their content as such, we aren’t going to go that route at OWS. We’re going to accept this fact, and stick to what we do know, and apply our thoughts to maximize what we win when we win.
The reality is that we’ll all know a lot more this time next week than we do right now and there’s nothing wrong about that.
But what is so cool about Week 1? Well…
It’s Week 1, where preseason football matters and it doesn’t. I present to you Isiah Pacheco (good) and Kenny Pickett (bad) from 2023. Selective sampling but one of these storylines carried through last season and one did not.
It’s Week 1, where meaningful data exists, and yet doesn’t exist. Think Kyren Williams’ expected usage as the primary punt returner, the Dolphins running back rotation, Malik Nabers’ expected target share, or how the Texans, Packers, or Bears will distribute their passes. We think we know but we don’t know–yet.
It’s Week 1, when we have no recency bias. Could C.J. Stroud disappoint? Could Bryce Young be good? Unfathomable to think of either of those things at the end of 2023 but this is a new season.
It’s Week 1, where players are mispriced everywhere you look. Jayden Daniels, Geno Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell, Nabers, Rome Odunze, to name just a few.
And finally, it’s Week 1, where embracing uncertainty is encouraged more than any other week to find success!
As with most Main Slates, we don’t get the benefit of some of the top offenses and game environments being included, and that’s even more pronounced in Week 1. With the NFL promoting the return of its product for another season, it makes sense to feature the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, Eagles, Rams, Lions, 49ers, and Jets, and in the process, remove them from our sights for this week.
But what we do get is the opportunity to break down the remaining 12 games with implied totals led by the Bills (27 points) with Josh Allen at home against a feisty Cardinals team and the Dolphins (26.5) hosting their Floridian counterpart in the Jaguars. Behind BUF and MIA, we have just four teams projected to score 24+: Texans (at Colts), Bengals (vs. Patriots), Bears (vs. Titans), and Seahawks (vs. Broncos).
Targeting game environments tends to be the richest path to pursue, and here we have just three games with implied Vegas totals at 48 or more: Jags // Dolphins (49), Texans // Colts (48.5), Cardinals // Bills (48). Can the Jags, Colts, or Cardinals keep up?
Beyond those games, which will likely pick up some ownership, a few other spots to note for further examination…
That’s just a taste of what’s on tap on Sunday, and I didn’t even mention perhaps my favorite game stack of the week. You’ll have to read The Scroll for that.
But, as you can see, situations to capitalize on abound. So, so much more to come on the site this weekend.
Remember: Nobody knows anything. Take advantage of what you know and keep things as simple as can be this week. And as always, embrace the unknown.
We’ll see you at the Discord party this evening and on the site throughout the weekend.
Enjoy having football back in our lives and we’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
~Larejo
