The preseason is over, and final cuts have been made. All teams now have their 53 players in the fold, and the first game of the year is a week away. It pairs two of the best teams in the league with two of the lowest odds to win it all in February.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites to three-pete at +550. The Baltimore Ravens are third on the board, behind the San Francisco 49ers. The Ravens odds are +1100. The main reason they aren’t in single digits below 11/1 is the division they play in. Having to play two games against the Steelers, Browns, and Bengals is a heck of a lot tougher than either Kansas City or San Fransisco’s divisional games. There is no real doubt that the Chiefs and 49ers are going to win their divisions, but the Ravens have real competition in the AFC North.
The Chiefs closest competitor is the Chargers, who are +4000, and currently ranked 17th in the league. In fact, other than the Chiefs, no other AFC West team is in the top half of the league. And the 49ers competition isn’t much better. The Rams are ranked 14th and are sitting at +3000. However, the Ravens have to contend with Cincinnati, who is sitting at no.6 in the league and only +1500. Cleveland and Pittsburgh are each in the middle of the league’s rank.
Gamblers tend to fall into certain categories of betters. Some prefer DFS action, while others prefer yearlong leagues…and others prefer dynasty leagues. When they go to a sports book in person or online, they also fall into different categories. Some like the immediate thrill, while others are drawn to the lure of the future. Oftentimes, those wagers will generate a larger payday.
For instance, Barstool owner Dave Portnoy has been on a tremendous heater, making futures bets and parlays. He famously has one riding now, a 100/1 shot with $100K on the line, taking Caitlyn Clark and her Indiana Fever to win the WNBA Championship. If they can pull it off, Portnoy will win $10,000,000. That sure beats making a $20 three-team parlay on a Friday Night.
Although I do enjoy making bets on a day-to-day basis, I like to think of those bets as a way to fund my true love, which is making bets on futures. Let’s face it: for gamblers, the Superbowl is Christmas. There is no bigger gambling day in the year, and this time of year is great to bet on who’s going to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Let me start by saying, “Why take the favorite?” Would betting $100 to win $550 in February be nice? Absolutely, but it’s a long wait for a relatively low payoff. And, considering they are trying to do something that’s never been done before, it is an added detractor in taking them.
I always like to take two teams, one in the AFC and one in the NFC, who have decent odds and who I obviously feel has the talent to win it all. Let’s face it: in any given year, there are only so many teams who have a legitimate shot. This year, there may be 10, but that’s a stretch. The entire AFC East is down. The Jets with Aaron Rodgers will improve, but they really aren’t Superbowl timber. And until Miami can prove it in the playoffs, I’m a non-believer. And although Josh Allen is great, Buffalo isn’t going to the Super Bowl.
No other team in the AFC West is capable of making a run other than the Chiefs (in fact, none of them will make the playoffs). Baltimore, at +1100, certainly can, as can Cincinnati, at +1500. The other team that could make a run is the Houston Texans, sitting at +1500.
In the NFC, the 49ers are the favorites at +600, which is too low for me to throw my money at, and I don’t think they’re going to win. The Cowboys are the Cowboys, and the Eagles have shown some chinks in the armor as of late, and many (including me) are calling for Jalen Hurts to regress. Detroit has the talent and has been a trendy pick, sitting at +1200…but I worry about their coach doing something to cost them a game. Basically, the NFC is filled with a bunch of teams who “can’t” win the Superbowl…but one of them is going to get there.
For me, that team is Detroit’s divisional opponent, the Green Bay Packers. They are sitting at a nicely priced +1800. Chicago is a year or two away, Minnesota doesn’t have Kirk Cousins anymore, and JJ McCarthy is out for the season. And I have far more faith in HC Matt Lefleur than Dan Campbell.
In putting all of those AFC teams into a hat, I’ve picked out the Texans, who are +1500. They were an offensive wagon last season and have added Stefon Diggs for CJ Stroud to get the ball. They are in a fairly weak division with really only Jacksonville to overcome.
For long-shot bets, I like the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC at +3000, with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp making one more run behind the leadership of HC Sean Mcvey. In the AFC, I actually like the Jaguars, the Texans’ divisional foe. They are sitting at +4500 and have a ton of offensive talent with offensive-minded HC Doug Pederson, who does have a Superbowl Ring in his jewelry box.
If you really want to get frisky, you can make a wager to pick the matchup, regardless of the winner. And those odds are fantastic. At +8000, you can bet on a Texans-Packers Superbowl, and as long as they each get there, regardless of the winner, you win. A $100 wager will get you a cool $8000.
Realistically, each of these teams will make the playoffs, which is the first criterion to get to the Super Bowl. They each have better than a puncher’s chance to win their divisions. Houston is the clear favorite, while Green Bay is basically a co-favorite with Detroit. Each team is currently ranked in the top 10.
Ultimately, I am really high on the Texans this season…I like them at +1500, and I want to mention one other wager. Aside from the +8000 matchup wager, there is one other bet that has even longer odds. Aside from picking the winner, pick the winner and the team they are going to defeat. Betting the Texans to defeat the Packers will pay off +14000. If you throw $200 at it, you’ll win $28K if it comes to fruition.
Another way to handicap this is to look at the odds for league MVP. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite, and Josh Allen is next on the list. Do you know who’s third? Yup, you guessed it, CJ Stroud is sitting right behind them at 10/1. Vegas obviously really likes Stroud this year. Oftentimes, the best quarterback playing on the best team wins the Super Bowl. That’s what I’m banking on.
