Afternoon-Only 7.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

QB STRATEGY

My guess on the order of QB ownership:

1. Geno Smith ~25%
2. Derek Carr ~20%
3. Justin Herbert ~17-20%
4. Patrick Mahomes ~10-15%
5. Jimmy Garoppolo ~8-10%
6. Davis Mills ~3-5%
7. Brett Rypien ~2%
8. Zach Wilson ~2%

• Pretty much no one is going to play the QBs from the Jets // Broncos game and Davis Mills will be mostly ignored as well.
• Relatively flat QB ownership compared to the last couple of weeks and no “can’t miss” stud situations like Allen and Hurts, where it makes QB an easier spot to take a stand this week.
• None of these QBs do much of their damage with their legs, making stacking more crucial than usual on this slate.

Defense Strategy

• The inverse of the QB situation, as the Jets and Broncos will almost surely be the highest owned defenses on the slate.
• The Chargers are the most interesting defense to me, particularly if Lockett misses the game or reports come out he will be substantially limited (which I think he will).
• The Texans are a nice cheap defense facing a team that is a little beat up (no Waller, Renfrow missed practices) and provides leverage off the massive chalk.

HOW I’M APPROACHING EACH GAME