Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
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Afternoon-Only 6.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

QB STRATEGY

My guess on the order of QB ownership:

  1. Josh Allen ~35-40%
  2. Geno Smith ~20%
  3. Kyler Murray ~10-15%
  4. Patrick Mahomes ~10-15%
  5. Matthew Stafford ~10%
  6. PJ Walker ~3%
  • Once again, we are looking at a situation where over half the field will be building their lineups around one game. The ARI // SEA game should also be pretty popular, with the CAR // LAR game accounting for a very small percentage of lineups at the QB position (which we know most people then build the rest of their lineups around). 
  • A really cool way I am seeing to attack this slate and get unique is to build lineups around that BUF // KC game but then substitute Kyler Murray in for Allen or Mahomes. In Murray’s games where he scores in the 30-point range, he usually does a lot of damage with his legs which means he could match Allen and Mahomes while giving you around $1k extra in salary to play with for the rest of your roster, and he could do so while not bringing much with him from his own game. Something like Kyler + Eno + ARI D with no WR or TE from the Cardinals and no bring back from the Seahawks, and then 2 players from each of BUF and KC would be really unique and basically just tells the story of “Arizona wins handily, none of Seattle pieces have monster games, and BUF // KC meets game expectations but Kyler matches Allen // Mahomes.” 
  • As we talked about last week, playing the “low owned” game (likely the Rams side) only has value for making you unique if you do some other things in a creative way. This is because of the clear path for the rest of your roster that you are put on once you start out with Stafford + Kupp, because of the high price tags, and the likelihood that most other rosters on the short slate look very, very similar.

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