Afternoon-Only 4.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

QB Strategy

My guess on the order of QB ownership:

1. Derek Carr 
2. Kyler Murray
3. Russell Wilson
4. Aaron Rodgers 
5. Baker Mayfield
6. Brian Hoyer

• I am very confident about Mayfield and Hoyer being the bottom two in ownership.
• Rodgers seems likely to be fourth as people gravitate towards the GB running backs at home as a favorite in a good matchup.
• I could see the top three ending up in any order but my thoughts for the order listed are as follows:
  • I think Carr will be #1 because Davante Adams will draw heavy ownership since there are only two other flex (RB/WR/TE) players priced above $7k (on Draftkings), and they are CMC (battling injury) and Aaron Jones (who people can pay down for AJ Dillon in the same spot). People aren’t going to want to play Hoyer/Mayfield so those not paying up for Kyler/Russ will lean Carr for correlation with Adams instead of Rodgers (as most people don’t like playing QB and RB from the same game).
  • Kyler is my guess as #2 because as discussed in the last point, there aren’t many high-priced studs to choose from, so it won’t be hard to get up to Kyler, who is coming in as the highest projected player at the highest scoring position. He is higher priced than Wilson, but not hard to find the salary on a three-game slate without many “studs” to choose from.
  • Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers should settle in at #3 and #4 in ownership. I tend to think Wilson outpaces Rodgers on the smaller slate as people will like DEN pass catchers more than those from GB.

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