Afternoon-Only 3.24

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 3 Overview

Five games on this slate is absolutely awesome. This may be the best batch of late games the entire year. While I always enjoy the “Afternoon Only” slate, sometimes when there are only three games (like last week) or four games, but they clearly have different tiers of games, it can become tedious to play and really hard to find an edge. Once the slate gets too small, it can be tough to separate yourself from the crowd, especially in the larger tournaments, as so many others are likely to have the same/similar teams just from the sheer number of entrants. This week’s slate is perfect because it has five games (10 teams) and a lot of moving pieces. The BAL/DAL and DET/ARI games are obviously the “premier” spots, but the other three games have enough intrigue, star power, and potential value to make it viable for many different paths to the top in DFS tournaments.

• The Panthers have a new starting quarterback and their offense could look completely different (and functional) without Bryce Young under center. Meanwhile, the Raiders offense came to life and Gardner Minshew looks like he’s going to have some big games throwing to his terrific receiving corps.
• The 49ers and Rams are both missing some key offensive players, which condenses their offenses a bit and gives some cheaper salaried players greater opportunity. Both teams also have great offensive minded head coaches who should be able to scheme some things to mask their injury issues.
• The Dolphins also have to deal with a new starting quarterback, but have explosive players who may go overlooked on this size of a slate due to questions around that QB situation.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: