Afternoon-Only 3.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

This Week’s Slate

• Three games is really getting tight for the late slate. Honestly, I’m not a huge fan of slates like this and much prefer them in the four to six game range. This week’s slate has the week’s two biggest favorites (KC and DAL), three teams projected for less than 19 points, and then the Seahawks just chilling in the middle. 
• The interesting thing about the two heavy favorites is the huge difference in their playing styles and touch distributions. Whereas Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb account for a massive percentage of the Cowboys offense, the Chiefs have Travis Kelce heavily involved and then like ten other players getting touches on a weekly basis. 
• Can any of these games be a shootout? I actually think all three of these games could surprise. Arizona just got into a high scoring game with the Giants last week and Dallas lost a key defender. Carolina’s offense will actually probably be more efficient with Andy Dalton under center and the Seahawks defense looks like it could be really bad. The Chiefs seem likely to blow the doors off the Bears but Justin Fields is the type of player who could be an X-Factor that flips the switch on the whole thing.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy