Thursday, Nov 30th
Bye Week:

Afternoon-Only 3.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

Week 3 Late Swap

This is an article for the Afternoon Only slate but due to the nature of this week and some injury situations, I’m also going to drop a couple of late swap ideas for the main slate. James Conner and Justin Herbert’s injury situations are up in the air and there’s a good chance we get slate-changing info after the early wave of games has started. Here are some ways to position rosters to be able to swap and get low-owned plays in great spots if things go differently than expected. The current sentiment is Conner will play and Herbert won’t.

  • James Conner news contingencies (must use WR, Flex, Def with afternoon players):
    • Allen Robinson + Marquise Brown + Jags D = $14,000
    • Darrel Williams + Tyler Lockett + Bucs D = $14,000
    • Eno Benjamin + DK Metcalf or Kirk + Bucs D = $13,900 or $14,000
    • Darrel Williams + Christian Kirk + Seahawks D = $14,000
  • Justin Herbert news contingency #1:
    • Stafford + Kupp + Higbee + Marquise Brown = $26,900
    • Herbert + Ekeler + Mike Williams + Pitts = $26,900
  • Justin Herbert news contingency #2:
    • Stafford + Kupp + Allen Robinson + Marquise Brown + SEA D = $30,800
    • Herbert + Ekeler + Christian Kirk + Metcalf + TB D = $30,800
  • Justin Herbert news contingency #3:
    • Kyler + M. Brown + Robinson + TB D = $22,100
    • Herbert + Ekeler + Zay Jones + SEA D = $22,100
QB Strategy

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