Sunday, Jan 29th — Early
Sunday, Jan 29th — Late
Bye Week:

Afternoon-Only 2.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Narrowing Your Player Pool

As we talked about last week, this is another week where we have enough games and enough highly projected teams that we could feasibly build lineups strictly from the late games and use them on the Main Slate, and that construction alone would likely separate us from an ownership and uniqueness perspective. The idea here is that it naturally condenses your player pool and increases your chances of being unique, even if those games or teams will all be popular. As I said last week, the lineup I used in my big win on the “Afternoon Only” slate would have won several of the big main slate tournaments as well that week. Several of the “premium” teams with high-profile players are not on the main slate this week making this strategy even more viable, as fading the early slate altogether could potentially be optimal with only one early game having a total of over 45, and that is a game featuring Jared Goff and Carson Wentz as the QBs.

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

QB Strategy

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