Afternoon-Only 17.23

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

FINDING AN EDGE

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Week 17 Slate

• This week’s slate is only three games and it has some unique features to it. 
• Four of the six teams that are playing will have a second or third string quarterback under center.
• Tight end is EXTREMELY THIN, with only two tight ends who we can confidently expect to have solid roles.
• A couple of these games and our approaches to these teams can be correlated based on what we think from last week’s results. What do I mean? The Steelers went nuts against the Bengals last week with Mason Rudolph torching them and Pittsburgh scoring 34 points. Did the Pittsburgh offense find something? If so, they are likely to be severely underowned against an up-and-down Seattle defense. That would also mean that maybe the Bengals defense isn’t as bad as it looked….and could be a sneaky play this week against the struggling Chiefs. Steelers stacks with the Bengals defense make sense. On the flip side, if last week was the result of how bad the Bengals D is then Chiefs stacks with Seattle defense makes sense.
• From an injury perspective, there are two situations we need to pay close attention to. 
• First of all, Ja’Marr Chase is questionable and uncertain to play. His availability will have a big impact on that game as he would make the Bengals more likely to keep things competitive. Also, the Chiefs star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has an uncertain status. If Chase plays and Sneed sits, Chase could be in a great spot for a big game. If Chase plays and Sneed plays, Tee Higgins could benefit assuming Sneed focuses on Chase. If Chase sits, the outlook for Higgins would depend heavily on the status of Sneed. A lot of variables at play here and being aware of exactly where the situation lands will be a key component of the slate.
• Second of all, the Chiefs RB situation must be monitored. Isiah Pacheco is reportedly going to play just six days after sustaining a concussion. The matchup is pristine, but will the Chiefs limit his touches to protect him from another concussion? Clyde Edwards-Helaire also missed practice Thursday and Friday with an illness. If CEH is out and Pacheco plays, they may have no choice but to give him a full workload. There’s also an outside chance the reports end up incorrect and Pacheco is a late inactive (similar to what happened last week with Michael Pittman).

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

QB Strategy