Afternoon-only 16.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 16 Overview

A quick programming note…next week the “Afternoon Only” slate is only two games due to the NFL putting three games on Christmas and two games on Saturday. Because of this, there will NOT be an Afternoon Only article. For me, a two game slate that is also a part of the main slate doesn’t provide as much appeal because in large field tournaments you are likely to end up either splitting with a bunch of people or playing some really thin options. Just not quite the same dynamic and so many slates on the week, so my focus will be elsewhere. Definitely feel free to hit me up in the Discord if you have questions on the slate, but the article won’t be in The Scroll for Week 17. Don’t worry, though. Week 18 is our best Afternoon slate of the season and we will be roaring back for that one.

Down to a four game slate this week and it is sure to be a good one. We have two potential shootouts, one with massive playoff implications in both conferences and the other with two teams who are drawing dead but have been at the center of wild game environments over the last month. We also have a game between arguably the league’s best defense and almost certainly the league’s worst offense. Finally, a massive AFC showdown between two teams who are known for their defenses but have the ability to trade punches if the game script plays out in a certain way. Should be an awesome Afternoon slate for us to chase some glory – let’s dig in!!

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: