Afternoon-Only 13.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Finding an Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. 

Ownership Strategy

Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates,” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate. This means getting these players right is even more vital than on the main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points. This also means it is easier for lower-owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.

Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games. 

QB STRATEGY

This week’s afternoon slate is especially interesting with two very high game totals and a third game filled with high profile players, not to mention a Seattle team that is always somewhat popular this season.

• Let’s start from the bottom. John Wolford is starting for the Rams and will almost certainly be 1% owned or less.
• After that, Jimmy Garoppolo seems certain to be the next lowest owned QB, and I would expect him in the 3 to 6% range.
• Joe Burrow will almost certainly be the highest owned QB and should come in around 25-30%. It’s the QBs after Burrow and above Wolford/Jimmy that are tough to break down.
• Geno has the highest ownership projection on the main slate of the five remaining QBs. That being said, he is playing in the lowest total game on the slate so I could see him being passed by one or two others on the Afternoon Only slate.
• I would think Mahomes ownership has to at least double on this slate from the main slate.
• Carr and Herbert should be steamed up a little on the shorter slate, especially Carr due to his low price tag.
• Tua is kind of the odd man out as he is priced right near Burrow but has a lot more question marks about his matchup and game environment.

My guess on final ownership:

• Burrow – 25-30%
• Carr, Mahomes, Herbert, Geno – 12-20% each
• Tua – 8-12%
• Garoppolo – 3-7%
• Wolford – sub-1%

Defense Strategy

• The Seahawks defense will almost certainly be the most popular on the slate and for good reason against a Rams preseason-esque offense.
• Despite my affinity for the Dolphins passing game, the 49ers defense is probably the best bet on the slate. Miami is going to be without their two starting offensive tackles and unlikely to be able to run the ball, resulting in a high pass rate and a lot of sack/turnover opportunities.
• As I often suggest, playing defenses from the “premium games” (KC//CIN and LAC//LV) can be quite fruitful. All of those defenses will likely have ample opportunity to make plays, and even if those games are high scoring they can get some turnovers and/or score a touchdown. As a matter of fact, more often than most people realize when there is a game that is extremely high scoring it is an early defensive touchdown that serves as a catalyst.

HOW I’M APPROACHING EACH GAME

Be sure to check the NFL Edge game breakdowns for deeper dives into these games, but here are some afternoon specific thoughts.