Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:

Above The Field. 8.21.

Ode to meaganjoy: The Sequel

Those of you that have frequented this page for the last year may find some familiarity in the name meaganjoy, winner of this Week 7’s Millionaire Maker on DraftKings. They were featured in this space just 11 months ago, in Week 10 of the 2020 season. Meaganjoy had snatched victory in the final moments as Kyler Murray connected with Deandre Hopkins for a game-winning Hail Mary. As I pointed out then, this DFS player is no joke. Sharp as they come…but taking 1st in the Milly again? WTF? 

Winning a tournament of this size, this magnitude, within a year is mind-blowing. We need to find out what ancient rituals or animal sacrifices were made to achieve this. Maybe he and Tom Brady are part of the same illuminati group, and they have some magic flask full of Satan’s pee or something. Unreal. 

The winning lineup itself was lovely. A standard 4-stack with chalky, breakfast-narrative, soul mates Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp along with the lessor-owned Van Jefferson and a bring-back in D’Andre Swift, who was somehow only 7.3% owned.

The question I’ve been asking myself centers around the usage of Foster Moreau. My assumption is that this was a “late swap special.” There was speculation before the early games that Darren Waller would be sidelined for the Raiders afternoon game, but this was not confirmed until 90 minutes prior to the late games. Did meaganjoy swap to Moreau late, and if so, what did the lineup look like before this? Perhaps they had a secondary stack with Terry McLaurin/Cole Kmet and the Panthers at DST. Then, when hand tweaking (or re-running the optimizer), they were able to use the $500 in Tight End savings to move up from the Panthers D ($3500) to the Buccaneers ($4000). This would result in 27.7 extra points, the difference between 1st place and $1,000,000 or 143rd place and $600. WOW. Late Swap is a thing, kids. Don’t start drinking until the late games lock.  

I’ve been googling the shit out of “meaganjoy DFS sicko wizard psychic” all week in hopes of finding the answer to this late swap thing as well as the even-more-burning question of their gender identity preference. I mean, not that I really care or anything, but it would be neat if this luck-box genius was a non-dude. 

Damn, I’m only a couple of hyphens away from my hyphen cap. I’d better conserve. #HyphenCap

I was hoping that analysis of meaganjoy’s statistics and allocations would reveal some special formula, the “secret sauce,” if you will. But it appears they are just really, really good. 

Of the 150 entries, ownership hovered in that sweet spot between 70% and 125%, with only a few exceptions above that caused by the massive steaming of the Cardinals Defense. 

Stacks sizes were pretty standard. 

Stack of 5: 15

Stack of 4: 73 (100% of these were QB/two-pass catchers/OPP)

Stack of 3: 54 (these varied between QB/pass catcher/OPP and QB/two-pass catchers/No OPP)

Stack of 2: 8 (a few skinny stacks featuring various QBs)

Matt Stafford was prioritized at QB, but meaganjoy’s toes were dabbled in the waters of 13 different signal-callers. 

The impressive part of this was the absence of the popular Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, and Lamar Jackson. It was as if meaganjoy said, “I’m only eating the chalk with one QB this week, and I’m gonna double the field on him.” 

Some sharp and aggressive decisions were made at RB.

You have to appreciate the conviction and discipline displayed here. Going way under with semi fades on the two highest-owned (and highest projected!) backs was ballsy as hell. A “1st place or bust” approach for sure. For the record, meaganjoy’s next-highest results were 440th and 489th. Take away that one magical lineup, and total profit would have been a whopping… $5. A game of inches!

One thing that jumped off the page as I perused the results of Week 7’s Milly came at the RB position. Almost all of the sharpest DFS pros were overweight on Damien Harris, and all of them were way overweight on D’Andre Swift. Well, meaganjoy is going to want to commission a bronzed statue of Swift for their front yard because this is the 2nd time D’Andre has brought home a Milly victory. 

Most pros chose to roster the Darrell Henderson chalk at roughly 50% of the field. Henderson came at 39%, and most of them had him in the 20% range. The few that committed to Hendy did so fully by going above the field at 65-85%. 

A peek at the WRs shows the biggest stand taken.

Essentially a $2520 bet on Cooper Kupp. He smashes; we have a chance. If he fails, who cares? I won the Milly 11 months ago!

Note to self: I should be playing more like this. 

A fairly common approach by the professional DFS players this week and most weeks; when a player is chalky, get way above or at least 50% under. 

Some contrarian choices with TE allocations for sure. 

Noticeably absent from these charts is the presence of any Baltimore Ravens. 

Wouldn’t it be funny as hell if they accidentally unchecked the Ravens team box before the final optimizer run and then tilted like hell after lock? 

Most of the sharps just play DST straight. Pick a bunch that seems appealing, set the randomness at “infinite,” cap them at a reasonable number, and move on. No need for galaxy brain ownership and leverage decisions here. Bigger fish to fry. 

That’s all I’ve got for you this week, folks. Meet me at Hilow and Xandamere’s (yet unnamed?) Discord pod on Saturday. I’ll try to get them to pontificate for 30 minutes on the emergence of DFS leveling and the theoretical efficacy of the “Bring-back Pivot.” I can already envision smoke billowing from Air-Podded ears across the globe! 

Good luck in Week 8.