I don’t mind making mistakes. Everyone does it. We’re humans. I have an absolute abhorrence for making the same mistake twice. At that point, I simply should’ve known better. But it’s really difficult at the beginning of the year because we’ve had eight months for rust to set in. I think I need to write down some Week 1-related notes and make myself read them next September.
I know the last 8 months have been tough with no NFL DFS, but let’s not put 50% of our bankroll in play in Weeks 1 and 2. They may be the most variant weeks of the entire year. Slow your roll, bruh.
Try to remember that it’s been a long time off for NFL defenses as well. Some of these defensive units are playing together for the first time and haven’t perfected their communication just yet. Make sure you have a list of players that are:
A) Projected for low ownership
B) Between 3K and 5K in salary and;
C) Capable of using their speed to make a confused secondary pay for mistakes
When Week 2 arrives, forget everything you saw in Week 1. It’s meaningless.
Also, don’t roster Marquez Valdez-Scandling. It’s a TRAP!
Per usual, I will forgo the review of the luckbox that won the Milly on a single bullet and focus my analysis on someone who max-entered and had success. This week, I had the pleasure of coming across a name that is new to me but performed very impressively in Week 2.
wiley77 used a concentrated player pool to propel 63 of his lineups over the pay line with 18 of those landing in the coveted top .1%. He managed this without going particularly stack-happy. Almost all of his lineups featured a 3-stack with either a QB/Pass Catcher/Opponent or QB/Pass Catcher/Pass Catcher. He did not employ a strict bring-back rule. The chances of an opponent appearing in stacks were increased subtly by using a non-aggressive “enhance” or “boost” correlation. Only 13 lineups had less than three players from the same game, and those involved a running QB with a single teammate. It was a sharp move, in my opinion. A Konami Code dude can easily score with his legs, thus limiting the touchdown receptions available for his slew of receivers.
The recipe for success here was the absence of any game stacks involving the popular Cowboys/Chargers contest, instead focusing on massive shares of Russell Wilson and Tom Brady with 2x-the-field inclusions of Kyler Murray and Josh Allen.
They made some sharp decisions at RB as well. A tight pool and a near 7x share of Derrick Henry on one of his slate-breaking afternoons shot wiley77’s lineups to the top of leaderboards.
There was not much FOMO happening here. Personally, I rarely fade CMC or Dalvin at reasonable ownership. But you can’t play them all, particularly if you want to have a 46% share of one of the studs.
As much as I admire the fortitude of wiley77’s convictions, I’m left to wonder if expanding the pool at WR might have provided a better chance at 1st place. Given the usage of Kyler, a little bit of Rondale Moore would have possibly propelled one of wiley77’s lineups even higher than his top finisher at 19th place.
As I’m looking at Wiley77’s impressive allocations while lamenting its limitations, I’m further convinced that my approach of hand-building 50 lineups and including numerous outliers mindfully before tightening up my pool for a run of 100 in the optimizer is perfect…for me.
Everyone is different, and wiley77 is undoubtedly one who is very sharp. I’ll be keeping an eye on him for sure.
Just for good measure, here’s a peek at his TE allocations. WOW.
Imagine rostering a TE in 90% of your lineups, kicking back, and watching him targeted repeatedly by The GOAT in the red zone. Life is good.
Every Saturday, I release my player pool onto The Scroll for your perusal. I try to give short notes on all pertinent players detailing why I may be rostering or avoiding them.
Sometimes things work out. Sometimes they don’t. Sometimes it’s my fault. Other times we get bit by the variance bug. I’ll give examples of each.
Nailed It…Hey, I should do this for a living!
Christian Kirk played well again, so I shouldn’t strain myself patting my own back. But I liked Moore and AJG as low-owned ancillary pieces of a game stack with smash potential. They put up 27.4 and 13.4 points, respectively. A.J. Green had a TD, but also multiple other red zone opportunities in which he was unable to cash in. I think he will continue to have that role going forward, at least until he convinces the Cardinals coaching staff he’s toast.
I had 14% Rondale at 2.4% ownership and still managed to lose money this week. GPPs are hard.
Oh boy, I stink
Sigh. Alvin Kamara never got going and this game was pretty gross for the Saints. I really thought playing the Marquez Callaway flop lag was a good idea. Maybe it was, and it just didn’t work out. Betting on Jameis Winston to carry a WR’s production is always and forever an adventure.
I played exactly 0% Henry Ruggs. This was poor process on my part. At .91% ownership, I could have sprinkled him into four lineups and been way over the field. Ruggs has the talent to catch an 80-yard TD at any time. I try not to completely fade guys like that over 150 lineups if they are micro-owned. Boo, me.
Missed the flop again. I run so bad.
Avert your eyes if you don’t know this already and want to avoid tilt…
Both Christian McCaffrey and Damien Harris put up solid scores this week, but unfortunate circumstances around the goal line kept them from smashing. Harris also got dinged up for a bit and ceded some extra snaps to James White. The Patriots DST put up 19 points, so this pairing was nearly a tourney-winner. I’ll continue to roll with these two RB’s when favorable ownership and prices converge.
Next year, I’m digging up that Time Capsule…and I’m playing me some Ruggs.
On to Week 3.