Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:35 PM ET
IC LiteMinimizeShow
IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME OVERVIEW ::
- Titans rank 32nd in time of possession at 22:24 through two games.
- Cam Ward ranks last in deep throw rate; Jaxson Dart likely out for the season with an MCL injury.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
- Run game is the clearest path; Titans rank 9th in yards per carry against a Giants defense allowing the highest adjusted run-blocking yards.
- Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard both sit in the top 24 in rushing EPA/play and could exploit a porous Giants front.
DFS+ ANGLE ::
- Spears leads the team in targets per route run and pairs ground-game volume with receiving work as a leverage angle.
- Titans passing ceiling remains capped by Ward’s low deep-ball rate and disconnect with Daboll’s concepts.
Inner Circle Lite
Upgrade for $5 a week
That was a sneak peek. IC Lite members get the whole condensed read on every article, all week long, plus all the projections.
GAME OVERVIEW::
- Titans rank 32nd in average time of possession at a silly-low 22:24. The Giants’ 27:25 time of possession in Week 2 with Jameis Winston under center would rank 29th.
- Brian Daboll #revengenarrative alert. I don’t know if that’s really a thing, and his offense has been downright hard to watch on tape, but something has got to give here.
- QB Jaxson Dart could be out for the season with an MCL injury, but will most certainly miss Week 3.
- WR Malik Nabers aggravated an existing shoulder issue in Week 2. I’m writing this game up before the first injury report of the week, but I expect him to play through the ailment after returning to the game against the Rams.
- QB Cam Ward ranks dead last in deep throw rate through two games.
- QB Jameis Winston has averaged just 6.56 yards per pass attempt against two-high alignments since 2023 – the Titans have run the seventh most two-high through two games.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Titans are averaging 243.0 yards per game (31st), 15.0 points per game (26th, tied), and 50.0 offensive plays per game (32nd) through two weeks. Both of their games so far have come at home and they now find themselves on the road for the first time. The offense is hamstrung by ineffective quarterback play, while Cam Ward has the lowest deep throw rate in the league through two weeks (1.9 percent), also carrying a 28th-ranked passing EPA. The Titans rank seventh in 11-personnel rate at 68.9 percent, 30th in pass rate from neutral game script, and fifth in pass rate from negative script, simply highlighting their inability to carry their pre-game plan deep into games. One of the bigger problems I see with the offense is the disconnect between the design of individual plays and Ward’s ability to grasp and execute those concepts, something that is likely to continue until one of two things happen – either Ward takes a significant step forward or Brian Daboll alters the functionality of the offense to simplify things for Ward. I think we can say, with a high level of confidence, that the quicker fix is for Daboll to make the change. We can also say that doing so would not help to develop a quarterback they have invested significantly in, meaning we may not see those changes for quite some time, if at all.
The Titans rank a non-putrid 14th in adjusted run-blocking yards (ARBY), per statrankings.com, with both Tyjae Spears (18th) and Tony Pollard (22nd) in the top-24 in rushing EPA/play. The team actually ranks ninth in yards per carry (4.4), 14th in third down conversion rate (40 percent), and 18th in red zone touchdown rate (60 percent), but have run the fewest offensive plays per game due to their defense’s inability to get off the field. That has led to only 22:24 of average time of possession against the Jets and Eagles. Bolstering their ability to sustain the offense via the ground game is a matchup against a Giants defense currently allowing the highest ARBY (3.81) and second-most running back yards per carry (5.62) through two games. Look for the Titans to attempt to control the line of scrimmage with the football in an attempt to keep from getting themselves in long down-and-distance situations, somewhat shielding Ward in the process.
Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor appear to be sharing the load as the team’s WR3, with rookie Carnell Tate (84.1 percent) and veteran slot man Wan’Dale Robinson (79.4 percent) handily leading the team in route participation through two games. I expect Ayomanor to eventually take over more of the WR3 role as the season progresses. Tight end Gunnar Helm ranks third on the team in route participation at 63.5 percent. Running back Tyjae Spears currently leads the team in targets per route run at 0.29, followed by Tate at 0.21, Ayomanor at 0.19, and Helm at 0.18. Robinson has not seen the usage we expected when he was signed this offseason, currently chilling at a paltry 0.14 TPRR, while Ridley is running sprints with a 0.05 TPRR. The big picture is that no pass-catcher has truly emerged as the alpha in this offense, an issue that could persist throughout the season. The offense has clearly delineated roles, with Ayomanor (12.3 aDOT) and Tate (10.6) the primary intermediate-to-downfield options and Robinson (4.1) and Helm (2.3) the primary short-area options, with both backs involved through the air on screens and leaks. As was touched on above, there is room in this matchup for one of the downfield options to pop on a per-target basis, but I question the true ceiling of all pass catchers.
How This Game Plays Out
Winston’s tendencies vs. Tennessee’s two-high shell, Likely’s target dominance, and projected game flow all factor in. Sign up free to see the full breakdown.
DFS+ INTERPRETATION::
Added Sep 23, 2026 · 12:33 PM ET
Before The Storm Hits
Malachi Fields and Isaiah Likely are the large-field plays, but a Nor’easter could reshape everything. The weather read changes your build.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.