Chiefs (

27.5) at
Dolphins (

17.5)

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:25 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• RB Kenneth Walker leads the league in carries, total yards from scrimmage, and rush yards after averaging 31.5 opportunities per game the first two weeks.
• Bobby Slowik’s Miami offense is one of the more putrid units on tape this season, and that’s saying a lot.
• T Josh Simmons missed practice again Wednesday with his back injury. The Chiefs have been starting rookie undrafted free agent Kahlil Benson at left tackle, who has performed admirably with the opportunity.
• WR Caleb Douglas picked up an ankle injury in Miami’s Week 2 loss to the 49ers. Monitor his status the rest of the week, but I currently expect him to miss Week 3.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The injection of Kenneth Walker into this Kansas City offense has returned them to one of the most dynamic and schematically diverse units in the league. The reasons aren’t the same as they were back in the Tyreek Hill days, but teams are no longer able to clog the middle of the field with an additional defender from zone, knowing the Chiefs simultaneously wouldn’t be able to run or attack deep. This team still doesn’t have the downfield chops they once did, but head coach Andy Reid has been able to keep opponents off balance through sequencing and situational unpredictability. Their offensive line, while no longer completely dominant, has performed well as a unit to begin the young season, blocking to the 10th best ARBY (2.85) while allowing the ninth lowest pressure rate, all with a rookie undrafted free agent starting both games at left tackle in the place of the injured Josh Simmons. Kahlil Benson has allowed six total pressures through two games but ranks as a top-15 tackle in run-blocking metrics, per Pro Football Focus. Add the magic man himself back into the lineup and we’re starting to see how dynamic this offense can be once again. On the other side of the ball, the reintegration of a familiar face in L’Jarius Sneed and the presence of first-round corner Mansoor Delane bring cohesion to what had been an up-and-down defense, while defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continues to be one of the more situationally adept play callers in the league.

Walker is proving to be that dude in Kansas City, and the Chiefs have proven to be completely unafraid of lowering their dollar-to-touch ratio after signing him to a three-year deal this offseason. All Walker has done in his first two games for the Chiefs is handle 47 carries and account for 16 targets, good for an average of 31.5 opportunities per game, on an 81.5 percent backfield opportunity share. He leads the league in both total yards from scrimmage and rushing yards on the backs of a gaudy 6.2 yards per carry, adding two touchdowns to his ledger. We can debate the level of competition through two weeks all we want, but that matters not as the Chiefs turn the page to a Week 3 matchup with a Dolphins team that has seen 32 carries per game. The Dolphins actually rank near the middle of the pack in both yards allowed per carry and defensive ARBY, making this less of a cake-walk matchup than the general public will likely assume. Consider it a neutral-to-positive pure rushing matchup on the ground.

One of the aspects of the offense to change following the addition of Walker is the roles of the remaining skill position players. The team continues to utilize screens at an elevated rate, something we have grown accustomed to in Reid’s offense, but it is now mostly Walker in that role. That has pushed Rashee Rice’s aDOT up slightly to 6.4. Tyquan Thornton remains in a near downfield-only role (third-ranked 24.2 aDOT), while both Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce remain mostly confined to the intermediate areas of the field. Rice and Kelce are not massive YAC threats (I say that tongue-in-cheek, knowing that Kelce put up massive YAC in Week 1), again pointing to the fluidity in play calling due to the addition of a dynamic piece in the backfield as the primary reason for improved efficiency. Due to their low-aDOT roles, both Rice and Kelce are going to require immense volume to return GPP-worthy scores, even at somewhat depressed salaries. Thornton sees mostly empty yards but is always a threat to break one off with such a deep, yet confined, role. That said, Patrick Mahomes quietly remains one of the league’s worst downfield passers in recent years. Finally, Kelce appears to have turned back the clock, at least a little bit, looking more spry in and out of routes these first two games than he did at any point last season.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 23, 2026 · 10:29 PM ET