Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The first question on any slate the Bills are on is “does Josh Allen have paths to ‘Super Josh’ being unleashed?”
- The Jaguars averaged 32.8 points per game to end the season following their Week 8 bye. That’s a solid 10-game sample. For comparison, the Rams led the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game for the entirety of the season.
- The Bills conducted a walkthrough Wednesday, but RB Ty Johnson (ankle) and WR Josh Palmer (ankle) were listed as ‘DNP.’ Johnson’s game-day status is of particular intrigue considering his clearly delineated role in this offense.
- The Jaguars are mostly healthy heading into the postseason, although there were three CBs on the Wednesday injury report.
- The Bills ranked 28th in PROE, 31st in pass rate, and averaged the most rush attempts per game, while the Jaguars forced the second-highest PROE while facing only 21.7 rush attempts per game (fewest in the league).
- The Jaguars finished the season with the highest PROE since Week 13, ending with a positive PROE in each of their final six games.
- The Bills led the league in EPA/rush from 11-personnel while deploying that alignment at about league-average rates.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
The Bills finished the regular season ranked 28th in PROE, 31st in pass rate (49.45%), and first in rush attempts per game (32.2), giving us a clear display of intent. Quarterback Josh Allen had only two games all season with more than 35 pass attempts. He also put up 47.7 DK points on only 30 pass attempts against the Buccaneers earlier this season, demonstrating his game-breaking (and slate-breaking) upside on modest volume. But the point remains, this team is not looking to the air at great frequency unless they are absolutely forced to do so. That generates an interesting micro matchup considering the Jaguars forced the second-highest PROE while facing the fewest rush attempts per game (21.7) during the regular season. The Bills largely stuck to their static game plan this season, regardless of matchup. Games against pass-funnel opponents like the Patriots (28 and 31 pass attempts), Browns (12 pass attempts), Buccaneers (30 pass attempts) saw fewer pass attempts than we would have otherwise expected due solely to matchup, while Allen’s highest pass attempt marks of the season came either in losses (35 in a 13-12 loss to the Eagles, 34 in a 23-19 loss to the Texans, 40 in a 30-13 loss to the Dolphins) or a shootout (46 in a 41-40, Week 1 win over the Ravens).
Lead back James Cook saw his role ebb and flow based on game environment this season, typically playing a much higher snap rate and seeing more opportunities in games the Bills controlled. He found himself routinely in the 70-80% snap and opportunity range in large wins while falling to the 50-60% range in games the Bills were forced to play from behind. He finished the season as the rushing leader with 1,621 yards, but handled a modest 37.2% carry rate inside the five to go with a middling 3.9% touchdown rate. Much of that was due to Allen’s elevated red zone and green zone roles, with the two eventually tying for fifth in the league in total touchdowns (passing excluded) with 14 scores. The Jaguars present about as difficult a matchup as possible on the ground, ceding the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (18.8) while allowing only 3.9 yards per carry (fifth) and facing the lowest overall rush rate in 2025. Ty Johnson’s status is of particular concern this week, considering the Bills never used to dress three backs that didn’t contribute heavily to special teams, highlighting their trust in Johnson as the best back in pass protection. Ray Davis has never been given much work in that area at the NFL level, making it possible Cook sees a heavier snap rate should Johnson miss with his ankle injury.
Keon Coleman has bounced back and forth between inactive and dressed with the team for game day in the second half of the season, something that Joshua Palmer’s status could influence for Wildcard Weekend. The team added veteran Brandin Cooks following the season-ending injury to Curtis Samuel, the latter of whom will reportedly not see his 21-day practice window activated ahead of their Wildcard game. Either way, expect no fewer than five wide receivers operating in a loose rotation for a team that utilizes its pass-catchers through a “sum of all parts” setup, with no singular player typically playing more than 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. A typical three-player rotation at tight end amongst Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Jackson Hawes makes eight primary pass-catchers on a given week, something that appears unlikely to change now that the team has reached the postseason. The Bills returned four instances of a pass-catcher hitting the 100-yard threshold all season, with Kincaid accounting for two of those (Khalil Shakir did it once, and Coleman did it once). The Jaguars allowed 32.1 DK points per game to opposing wide receivers (14th most) and 15.0 DK points per game to opposing tight ends (10th most), providing slim paths to upside for the Buffalo pass-catching conglomerate.
