You know the feeling. It’s why you’re here. That glorious, maddening, weekly riddle that consumes us right until kickoff: WHO DO I START? The impact? Maybe the difference is between mess-talking victory and soul-sucking defeat. And we all want that “edge,” don’t we? That little nugget that pats us on our tushies and tells us everything will be ok. A gentle nudge, if you will. I want you to know that I’m here each week to pat your tushies (figuratively). To give you my two cents on who needs to be touching grass and who needs to be riding pine. And why.
This is your nudge. *pats tushie* Now, let’s get this ‘W’.
WEEK 8 RECEIPTS
I went 9-7 on a tough week for the QBs I smashed and faded (CW18 is a real problem), with a big whiff on Jordan Love. RB calls were solid (3/4), but Saquon made me eat crow. Flat on WR (2/2) and 75% on TEs. Overall, a decent spread.
On the season, I’m banking 70-58 (54.7%). I’d like to be higher, but I’m not out there on Sundays cutting it up with the boys. Onward and upward.
QUARTERBACKS
Start — Drake Maye (NE vs. ATL) A mid-range total keeps the ceiling intact, and New England’s offense has shown better balance the last two weeks. Maye’s pocket management and intermediate accuracy have ticked up, creating cleaner third-down outcomes. Atlanta’s pass defense has been middle-of-the-pack, and can be stressed – just ask Tua. In a home spot with a manageable pace, Maye profiles as a strong QB1/2 swing.
Start — Kyler Murray (ARI @ DAL) This game is the week’s track meet, and Murray’s dual-threat usage has trended up after a slow September. Dallas bleeds explosive pass plays and yards per attempt (I call it the “Cowboys effect”), and Arizona stacks volume when pace goes up. Murray’s recent accuracy on intermediate crossers matches well with Harrison Jr.’s route tree. Top-8 ceiling for Kyler this week.
Sit — C.J. Stroud (HOU vs. DEN) Expect a slower environment with limited possessions, which compresses ceiling outcomes. Did you see what the Broncos just did to Dak and the boys? And that was the league’s top offense, which Houston is not. The Texan’s protection has been volatile, and pressure has correlated with Stroud’s down weeks. The floor is fine; the path to a spike week is narrow, even with Patrick Surtain II out (see Jahdae Barron).
Sit — Jaxson Dart (NYG vs. SF) Even with home-field comfort, this is a tough draw against a defense that squeezes throwing windows and punishes late balls outside the numbers. Losing Cam hurts – they’ll miss the balance and rhythm they had with him in there. Dart will have to cook without one of his main ingredients, and I’m not sure I trust it. Variance is high without a stable volume base – bench in standard one-QB formats.
RUNNING BACKS
Start — Kimani Vidal (LAC @ TEN) Los Angeles projects for a positive game script, and Vidal’s early-down work plus goal-line equity fits that scenario. Tennessee has been vulnerable to power/duo concepts that the Chargers leaned into last week. Vidal’s tackle-breaking has translated to steady success rates on first and second down. A high-end RB2 profile with RB1 access if the Chargers jump out early.
Start — D’Andre Swift (CHI @ CIN) Chicago gets back to the thunder and lightning formula (Swift and Monangai) in this one, restoring offensive identity after last week’s chaos. A high total and rising rushing efficiency also make this attractive. Cincinnati has been susceptible to chunk runs, opening lanes for perimeter and cutback schemes. Multi-touchdown pathways exist in this pace-up spot.
Sit — Chase Brown (CIN vs. CHI) Workload volatility (Samaje Perine’s arrow is pointing up) keeps the week-to-week floor fragile. In higher-scoring games, Cincinnati often tilts pass-heavy in neutral/negative scripts, squeezing early-down carries. Chicago’s front has been disruptive to RB rhythm, making opposing ball carriers’ totals TD-dependent. Don’t like the growing timeshare, don’t like the matchup.
Sit — David Montgomery (DET vs. MIN) My weekly “make me regret sitting you” spot. He’s here until he proves me wrong. Detroit has leaned wayyyy into Gibbs lately, and Montgomery just hasn’t been as effective with his touches. The Vikings run defense is pretty decent, and I don’t see a big game for both backs here. Monty is another TD-dependent back this week, and I’m looking elsewhere.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start — Rashee Rice (KC @ BUF) The total is premium, and Rice’s post-return usage jumped immediately (93 yards and a score in Week 8). Buffalo’s coverage has traded explosives for rally-and-tackle but can still be isolated from reduced splits, where Rice thrives on RPO glance and option routes. With pace and points expected, Mahomes-to-Rice volume is bankable for WR2 production at a minimum. Ceiling climbs if KC faces a negative script.
Start — Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI @ DAL) See Kyler Murray, above. We’re stacking against the Cowboys, here. High total + prime one-on-ones = alpha-volume spot. Dallas has allowed efficient WR lines alllllll year, and Arizona has leaned into Harrison’s boundary isolation + in-breakers vs. off/quarters looks. When the game turns fast, expect Harrison’s targets to spike. Firmly locked-in WR1/2 range.
Sit — Courtland Sutton (DEN @ HOU) Total is depressed, and Derek Stingley Jr. has been lights out, limiting catch rate and downfield wins. Bo Nix is distributing efficiently, which flattens Sutton’s target share volatility outside the red zone. In a low-possession game, Sutton’s margin is narrow unless he scores. I prefer volume-centric options over a tough CB1 draw.
Sit — Quentin Johnston (LAC @ TEN) Even as a favorite, Los Angeles is spreading targets: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, and Kimani Vidal all siphon touches. Johnston’s snap share has stayed decent, but targets/route and production lag; he’s become more of a clear-out/stretch piece in this configuration. Against a Titans defense more giving to slot/TE, QJ profiles as a prayer–based flex. Bench unless you’re chasing a long shot.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: Brock Bowers (LV v. JAC) Multiple reports have Bowers trending toward a post-bye return for Week 9, and the total is playable. Jacksonville has been middle-of-the-pack vs. TEs, and the Raiders badly need a chain-mover. It’ll be the first game back slinging, and I expect heavy-schemed looks (leak, TE screens, play-action crossers) to reset offensive rhythm. TE1 upside if he’s active.
Start: Colston Loveland (CHI @ CIN) Because why not? Loveland’s snaps and routes have climbed, and with Cole Kmet banged up/out or limited recently, he’s carving out hospitable usage. In a high total with an outstanding TE factor, Chicago’s play-action and boot concepts naturally feature the Y/wing on crossers and over routes, which Colston can exploit. Even if Kmet plays, recent target funk keeps Loveland viable as a top-12 streamer.
Sit: Hunter Henry (NE v. ATL) Recent volatility in target volume makes the week-to-week projection shaky. Atlanta typically compresses tight end efficiency, forcing offenses to work outside or to backs. Without steady red-zone chances, the touchdown bet is thin. There are cleaner streaming options in similar totals.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid (BUF v. KC) Despite a strong game total, Buffalo has shown stretches of WR-led distribution (hello Khalil Shakir) when chasing points. Kansas City’s linebacker/safety speed can limit tight end yards after catch and reduce easy stick throws. If the game speeds up, wideouts are more likely to absorb the spike targets. Fringe TE2 with more downside than usual.
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