Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

The late, legendary investor Charlie Munger was a man full of notable quotes. One of his most famous investment strategies was to “invert, always invert.” Inverting, or completely flipping a problem on its head, is one of the most effective ways to find solutions to a problem.

I come back to this thought at least once each NFL season. The DFS season is a grind, and in any given week, we’re always looking for inspiration and creativity. Inverting the “problem” is one of the more pure ways to go about this. Nothing complicated about it; just take everything you see and try to look at it in a completely different way.

That’s kind of the spirit of what this email should always be. At OWS, we send out the Angles Email at the “top” of each week, on Thursday mornings, when the news starts getting juicy and the Sunday slate starts to really take shape. You could say that we’re right in the midst of the setup, getting a look at what lies ahead as situations start to take form. When we lay everything out here in this space, we look at the macros (game totals, overall expectations, matchups to exploit) and then the “angles” element should come in to offer up a unique point of view for some of the games.

The weeks fly by, and as you’ve probably noticed by now, writing the same thing and taking the same approach (win or lose) is not good content. Good content is quite the contrary: it’s content that grabs someone’s attention as different, bold, unique. That’s going to vary week to week, and by trying to keep things fresh, we recognize that the OWS subscribers will sometimes love what we talk about here and sometimes be indifferent about it. 

What I want to do most as a DFS contributor is to inspire. I personally look for ways to inspire myself each week when we turn the page on the previous slate and look for a new edge in the coming one. This week, for me, it’s all about inversion, because by Week 11, it’s likely you’ve sharpened your process in many different ways, but it’s unlikely you’ve actually flipped it.

When Munger said this, he was looking for undervalued businesses to invest in. When we say it, we’re looking for undervalued games and matchups to dive into. As always, since we can’t cover every scenario, we need to be able to assess slates with a unique lens. It doesn’t have to be a 180-degree shift from the chalk path, but as we cover every week on OWS, you should be building lineups that blend projections and variance. 

To invert in Week 11, with 11 games on the slate and only the Colts and Saints on a bye, we should see what happens when we take the opposite approach for our “first look.”

Week 11 :: Inverted

Instead of starting with the best games on the slate, how about starting with the expected scrapes of the barrel. Could any of these teams go off this week?

The Titans have a lowly 15.5-point total hosting the Texans, who crushed them 26-0 in their first matchup this season. Tennessee is off a bye, Houston is likely to be without C.J. Stroud again. Houston’s defense is a top-five unit in nearly every category and expected to stymie Tennessee. However, Cam Ward now has three reliable receivers in Calvin Ridley (expected to return), Chimere Dike, and Elic Ayomanor. If Davis Mills struggles, and the Titans defense/special teams plays how they did in their Week 9 matchup against the Chargers, who knows?

The Giants (vs. Green Bay coming off a short-week loss to Philadelphia) and the Panthers (at Atlanta, with both teams off brutal losses) are implied for under 20 points. Jameis Winston may possibly make his Giants debut here and Bryce Young will try to convince the public (yet again) that he is the franchise QB in Carolina. Nobody expects the Giants to do much here, but maybe Green Bay is beat up physically and emotionally from playing such a hard game on Monday night and coming up short. Atlanta is motivated after its OT loss to Indianapolis in Berlin, but is it possible the Panthers simply have their number this season and can double down on their 30-0 shutout in Week 3?

The Jags and Chargers are one of seven games on the 11-game slate with a spread between 2.5 and 3.5 points. (This is one of the more notable aspects of this slate in general: a lot of games here with a field goal expected to be the difference.) Neither team has inspired much lately, with poor injury luck factoring in on both sides (Travis Hunter, Joe Alt, Omarion Hampton, Rashawn Slater, etc.). If this game was in Week 1, we would have expected plenty of points. Since it’s Week 11, it’s only a 44-point total. The Chargers still throw plenty and the Jags may get Brian Thomas Jr. back this week. Might be something. Might be nothing.

Bengals and Steelers will probably draw more attention than they should because of their crazy Thursday night game just a few weeks ago. A) Thursday games can be wonky, and B) This is still Joe Flacco (for a few more weeks) vs. Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn’t talk you out of it but realize the last matchup was probabilistically the outlier. That said, a 27-point implied total for Pittsburgh is massive, against a horribly bad Bengals defense, especially against tight ends. Interesting setup…

Chicago (22.75) at Minnesota (25.75), San Francisco (25.75) at Arizona (22.75), and Seattle (22.75) at LA Rams (25.75) oddly have the same implied totals and spreads. We could invert these by flipping the expectations and see how that looks. If Chicago were the three-point favorites, we’d expect a strong Caleb Williams performance, filled with big plays and still takeaways and sacks, as that’s the Minnesota defense. We’d also expect a ground-heavy game plan from the Bears and a pass-heavy approach from the Vikes… Arizona will be without Marvin Harrison Jr, but if they were favored in this game instead of San Francisco, we’d see a game plan through Trey McBride and a defense that overperforms against Mac Jones or Brock Purdy. Was San Francisco turning into a pumpkin last week vs. the Rams a one-game thing, or a trend?…With Seattle and the Rams, these teams are so even and so set in their identities we don’t really need to flip the script. LA will run through Stafford and the air attack, but the matchup with Seattle’s defense is stiff on paper. Seattle will run the ball, try to let the defense set the tone, and try to hit the big plays with Sam Darnold on play-action and more schemed looks to JSN. One thing to keep in mind with this cluster of games is that all are expected to be close, which is also to say expecting any of these to be a blowout in either direction is the path least likely.

Three other games to tackle but only one that I will…and that’s the game I would have started this email with in any other week: Tampa Bay at Buffalo. The Bills haven’t completely lost Vegas’ faith as a healthy 5.5-point favorite here. Some of this may be due to the health of the Bucs and some may be due to Josh Allen existing. Buffalo has faced a lot of criticism this week after its shocking loss to Miami last week, so a bounce-back of some sort should be expected. The question with these two teams is, will they look like their best or worst of the 2025 season in this one game?

So many interesting ways to look at a slate. Inverting is just another approach. Take what you do and switch it up a bit this week. Why not?

Looks like I’ll be taking a lot of underdogs…

Good luck building. See you on the site in the coming days, and see you in the Binks channel on Sunday evening!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

TUESDAY, NOV. 11 ::

EARLY WEEK 11 QB THOUGHTS ::

Early qb thoughts :: good lord.

josh allen in a spot where he could be unleashed, at only $7k

justin herbert with a broad range of outcomes (three games in his last seven under 16; three games in his last seven of 26+) in a soft matchup vs the jags

caleb williams with ceiling indoors vs the vikings

joe flacco firing things up again, this time in a rematch with the steelers

laugh about it, but jacoby brissett (20.8 // 21.4 // 24.7 // 24.8 in his four starts) playing the banged-up 49ers

matthew stafford and sam darnold squaring off, in a game where both defenses are good, but where both offenses will keep pushing and things could easily break to the upside

a tough matchup vs the browns, but you can’t put it past lamar to have a strong game

mahomes vs nix, a rung below stafford and darnold, but with the same idea: both offenses will keep pushing, and things could break to the upside

the funny thing is that lamar could score 18, the “could break to the upside” games could underwhelm, allen could go for 24, herbert could go for 17, caleb could get confused by the vikings and disappoint, flacco could land on the lower end of his range against an improved pittsburgh defense and lagging pittsburgh offense, and brissett could finally see the wheels fall off. maybe nothing pops at all this week, when it’s all said and done.

but there sure are options.

and mathematically, we’re likely to see something from this group (and possibly even something from outside this group) pop.

EARLY RB THOUGHTS ::

Early rb thoughts :: honestly, how confident are you that you’re getting more than 3x from anyone?

cmc has tremendous floor/ceiling range, but he’s gone over 3x in 2/10 games, and i’d give him roughly that same 20% chance here.

bijan can do it, but it’s pretty confident to say he’s likelier to score 23 or fewer (6/9 games, including four straight) than to blow up for a big game in what’s still a tough run game matchup vs the panthers.

encouragingly, jacobs saw 26 touches on mnf, but the only games in which he has justified his salary have come vs cincy and dallas. the giants are also a soft matchup, and he may be the likeliest of these top 3 to pop for a big game, but it’s still fair to be cautious here, on a team that’s been limiting his workload, and that should be in control of a game against a dart-less giants team.

james cook ($7.3k, vs tampa) can certainly get there. but given the matchup, he’ll need pass game volume or some explosive runs. it probably won’t come though plain old down-to-down consistency on the ground.

kyren, of course, has topped 22.4 once all year. he’ll need touchdowns to get there.

derrick henry is playing cleveland.

judkins is on a team that probably won’t score many times vs baltimore.

and then we’re down to fairly unreliable guys in jaylen warren (albeit vs cincy), rachaad white, kimani vidal, etc.

you may have noticed i skipped over dowdle. the panthers’ loss to the saints doesn’t inspire confidence, but teams have had a lot of success going big against the falcons and running all over them. dowdle is getting pricey at $6.8k, and he’s coming off a 15.3-pointer vs an average run d but bad all-around team in the saints; but he did go for 30+ in his three other games in this role. to me (early in the week, of course), jacobs and cook are the running backs outside of dowdle most likely to go for 4x, but dowdle would seem to have the best shot of everyone.

i highlight that 4x target because if all we’re getting is 3x across the board, and if we see a week in which passing attacks might have success, well…what about guys like swift ($5.8k), chase brown ($5.7k), aaron jones ($5.5k), woody marks ($5.4k), etc.?

of course, we also explored this thought last week, and while cmc, cook, henry, etc did disappoint, achane and gibbs went for monster games. as we move deeper into the week, we may eventually decide that high-priced rb is lower-certainty than normal, but that our best bet for a big game still comes from that group, and we should therefore be hunting there regardless.

on the flip side, however: just because that happened last week doesn’t mean it’ll happen this week. what if we see the big scores at wr that we didn’t get last week? and what if rb runs cold?

clearly, this is a wide-open week, at multiple positions.

EARLY WR THOUGHTS ::

Wide receiver is fun.

all of jsn // puka // ja’marr // egbuka // nico have pretty clear paths to the upside, while jj and drake london can have a strong case made.

we also have cheaper guys like tee higgins, mhj, and addison who can go for big games, and we have guys even cheaper than that who can go for strong games in jauan, qj, tez, etc.

again: it’s looking like a pretty wide-open week

EARLY BEARS/VIKINGS THOUGHTS ::

I’m playing out the bears // vikings game in my mind like this ::

bears have a hard time getting things going early on, with maybe some splash plays // flashy plays, but with negative plays ending early drives as caleb gets used to what he’s seeing from flores.

vikings lean into this style of game on offense, with a balanced attack. o’connell is always aggressive through the air, with plays designed for intermediate throws and opportunities for chunk gains, but if the vikings are controlling things, a steady mix of run game should be part of the plan.

this could lead to a slow ramp-up to this one, and could finish us in something like a 24-20 game.

i think that’s likeliest.

the push would have to come from chicago.

we know ben johnson will always lean toward aggressiveness, so that’s at least one portion of the equation solved for us. so ultimately, it comes down to whether or not caleb can get things going early.

this would probably come from splash plays, rather than from the bears driving the field in traditional fashion — though this doesn’t necessarily mean we’re looking to roster luther burden or anything; it’s more just getting a feel for how an early jump-start would come together.

ultimately, caleb against the vikings — at this point in his development — probably means we don’t get a standout game environment (and of course, o’connell will be happy to lean into that if it happens, as he’s still ideally hoping to win games with mccartney rather than through mccarthy). but there are, at least, some angles to think about here. namely: if caleb hits, does a pass catcher hit with him? or, is it something unique like caleb + addison?

all in all, an interesting spot to play around with.

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EARLY TIGHT END THOUGHTS ::

We don’t seem to have the value firepower at tight end this week that we’ve had in recent weeks.

last week, we were all over njoku (10.1 points at $3.2k), andrews (10.4 points at $3.4k), schultz (18.3 points at $3.6k!), and otton (17.2 points at $3.9k!). as we talked about heading into that week: we’ve been able to target sub-$4k tight ends and get scoring ranges a) comparable to high-$4k wideouts, and b) far ahead of sub-$4k wideouts.

but this week, things are thinned out a bit.

maybe we like schultz at $3.9k (albeit in a spot, vs tennessee, where the texans and their poor offensive line should have time to throw to wideouts).

maybe we like theo johnson at $4k with russell wilson rushing less (and therefore throwing the ball more) than dart.

maybe we like otton at $4.2k, but instead of facing the pats’ te-generous defense, he’s facing the bills’ te-stingy defense.

but it’s not as plentiful or as high-confidence as it has been.

BRISSETT-MCBRIDE THOUGHTS ::

Speaking of tight ends, here’s where we now stand after four games of jacoby brissett + trey mcbride — now $11.2k in salary (target score of 40-45) ::

45.9
50.2
41.3
52.1

they’ve done it against indy and dallas.

they’ve also done it against green bay and seattle.

can they do it against a banged-up san francisco defense?

i’d say the odds are in their favor.

WEEK 10 BETTING RECAP // WEEK 11 BETTING PREVIEW ::

Betting recap ::

another really successful weekend.

the browns burned us, as we had one unit on the browns +1.5, and also had the browns in a three-team parlay (one unit at +209) of browns, broncos, and lions to win.

other than that, it was all aces:

one unit on the pats +2.5

one unit on the ravens -3.5

one unit on the lions -3

one and a half units on the lions over 29.5 points

a quarter unit apiece on lions over 32.5, 33.5, 36.5, and 39.5.

on the season (which started in week 5 for this), the total tally is +14.62 units.

if you are tailing me on this, just a reminder: betting is not here to make us rich. even if we have an edge, given the unique lens through which i’m able to a) see these teams and b) spot market inefficiencies in certain spots, we should recognize that variance will play a role, and cold streaks are part of betting. don’t bet for the dopamine hit, or for the action. don’t give away money where you don’t have an edge. and i would strongly recommend doing what i’m doing: assess what you would be genuinely comfortable losing if you were at -20 units.

i play $6k each dfs weekend, so i’ve set my unit this year at $300, as i could go -20 units and it would be equivalent to one bad dfs weekend.

i stand to lose less in betting than i stand to lose in dfs.

i also have less to gain in betting.

i’ve been doing some live betting lately (there is serious edge there, though i wonder if there’s a way for us to capitalize on it together, as it happens so fast), and i’ve had to fight the urge a few times already to drop a bet in a spot where i don’t have edge, “just to have some action.” we’re not here for entertainment. we’re here to find edges when they come (and only when they come). too many people wreck their lives with sports betting: not having a plan, chasing losses, betting without edge, putting too much weight in their hopes of winning, etc. if you tail these bets, please set aside 20 units’ worth to lose, and know you can be comfortable with that amount.

there are edges all over the place in life. this is just one place where we can ideally scoop a bit of extra money each year.

with that psa out of the way, here’s what i have out there this week:

a half unit on…

panthers +3.5 at the falcons
bills -6 vs buccaneers
cowboys -3.5 at raiders

a full unit on…

ravens -7.5 at browns
dolphins +1.5 v commanders (this has since moved to the dolphins being favored, but i still like the bet where it’s available now)
bengals +5.5 at steelers
bengals over 21.5 points

plus a 5-pick parlay at +262 of ravens, packers, texans, patriots, and dolphins to win

1.5 units on…

texans -7.5 at titans

FLACCO-CHASE THOUGHTS ::

Piggybacking off the brissett + mcbride pairing…

$14k

target score: 50-55

scores so far:

43.9
70.1
45.4
56.8

this isn’t quite the same point-per-dollar consistency/range as brissett + mcbride, but it’s still really strong for the salary spent.

the pairing is flacco + chase, of course.

i also think tee higgins, chase brown, jaylen warren, and dk metcalf are interesting in this game.

BENGALS BACKFIELD THOUGHTS ::

Cincy is in an interesting situation if perine misses with his high-ankle sprain.

what made chase brown so valuable last year was not his efficiency, but was his workload; but that workload went away this year with perine being trusted, and with brown not performing at a high level.

if perine misses, however, they’ll have to lean on brown here. he played 96% of snaps before the bye with perine going down early, and in this offense, that would make him one of the stronger plays on the entire slate.

perine hasn’t done much this year in the box score, but perine + brown has produced 17.0 dk points per game, which should command a price tag of around $6.7k/$6.8k (and brown should be more explosive on these touches than perine has been).

with this team splitting touches so far this year, we might expect them to continue that without perine; but part of the reason perine has seen the usage he has seen has been the trust they have in him. with these being must-win games, i would expect them to just lean on brown as much as he can handle (and last year, he showed he can handle a full game of them leaning on him).

with jaylen warren seizing control of the pittsburgh backfield and brown likely to see heavy touch volume for the bengals, we might find ourselves with some rosters on which we play both backs from this game.

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 12 ::

SUNDAY MORNING PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

Sunday morning update is live – https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-11-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-11-25

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Again, we’ll save a bit of time and effort in this section after I just wrote some words on the macro view of this slate in the Oracle: “This slate has a similar feel to the one we saw last week, with one key difference – we have a bunch of potential value pieces at running back in Week 11. But like last week, we don’t feel great about many game environments despite numerous games with elevated game totals. There are numerous players we want to be spending up for (particularly at wide receiver and tight end), but we don’t have clear paths to access multiple of them together on a roster, and we’re seeing some seriously fragile chalk develop. Also, like last week, this leaves us with an uncomfortable feeling when building rosters, as there aren’t many places for either projectable certainty (top tier point-per-dollar projections) or directional certainty (high likelihood of a team succeeding). As a game theorist, slates like this one are my favorite to build for (also like last week).”

Beyond that, and similar to last week, there aren’t many game environments that we feel great about, shifting my focus more towards focused team bets where we can gain access to a little bit more directional certainty.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JAYLEN WARREN

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Warren and Brown project as the top values on DK this week, and their respective ownerships corroborate that tale. The problem, to me, is that both players are highly unlikely to return a score you could not win without, and both also have scary-low floors. The Bengals are averaging a league-low 18.8 rush attempts per game, so what, we’re expecting 16-18 carries and a handful of targets against a pass-funnel opponent? Warren has one game with more than 65% of the team’s offensive snaps, has gone over 100 yards once all season (sure, it came against this opponent), and has scored only three touchdowns all year while playing for a team that prioritizes Aaron Rodgers in the red zone. I’m sorry, but those profiles don’t have me jumping out of my seat at extreme ownership.

CHASE BROWN

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. See: Jaylen Warren.

TREY McBRIDE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacoby Brissett has started four games for the Cardinals this season. In those games, McBride is averaging 11.5 targets per game while seeing nine or more targets each time out. Marvin Harrison Jr will be out this week after an emergency appendectomy, and Zay Jones was placed on injured reserve. The team’s top two running backs are also out. Michael Wilson has a 0.13 TPRR, 1.19 YPRR, and 0.21 FP/RR in the four games with Brissett under center. McBride carries an immense floor and elite ceiling here, with the clearest path to “failure” being missing out on the touchdowns. Hmmmmm.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase in four Flacco starts this season: 28.1 XFP/G, 0.36 TPRR, 40.8% air yards share, 2.64 YPRR, 0.59 FP/RR. That, my friends, is something I am jumping out of my seat to play, regardless of ownership. The cherry on top is the clear pass-funnel matchup against a Steelers team facing the most pass attempts per game this season.

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The 49ers are averaging the fewest yards per carry in 2025. Furthermore, there are numerous backs in the mid-tier of player pricing at the position that carry significant cost-considered ceiling, and there also are numerous wide receivers that have a greater chance of returning true ceiling. It doesn’t add up as much as it has in previous weeks for CMC, at least to me.

MICHAEL WILSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. I mentioned Wilson’s splits with Brissett under center earlier. Suffice to say, the ceiling is not ideal this week, on a slate where we should again be embracing a bit of additional variance with our value plays. No, thank you.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Jacoby Brissett
Chase Brown
Aaron Jones
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Greg Dortch
Michael Wilson
Trey McBride
David Njoku
Titans

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

From the great Lord Reebs (Sharp Football Analysis), JSN is running 24.8 routes per game on the year, which places him 74th in the NFL. In spite of ranking 74th in the NFL in routes per game, he has the eighth most receiving yards in NFL history through nine games. What JSN is doing on a per-route basis is out of this world; and in a game against a fellow 7-2 team with an elite offense and an aggressive, forward-leaning style, we could easily see JSN run 32, or 35 or even 38-40 routes in this one. As we also know: the Rams are awesome on the defensive line and very good in the front seven overall, but their secondary is their weak link. I’ve talked about this on podcasts and in my Journal this week, but this feels like a week in which we’ll see not only plenty of 30-point scores, but also a handful of scores in the 35-40+ range. CMC, JSN, and Ja’Marr Chase are the players likeliest to go for 35-40+, and of those three, I put JSN at the top. Obviously, we look at things through a “range of outcome” lens, and it’s within JSN’s range of outcomes to score something like 22 DK points (or even to have an outlier in the wrong direction and score 14-17); but if we played out this slate a hundred times, I’m confident JSN would post a score you “had to have” more often than anyone else on this slate, and this makes him a priority for my rosters this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Five for Five”

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Story:

“This block hits for the fifth game in a row”

Why It Works:

At $11.2k in salary, our target score for this pairing is 40-45 DK points.

In four games so far, this pairing has gone for scores of 45.9 // 50.2 // 41.3 // 52.1.

That’s absolutely remarkable.

This should also be the lowest pressure rate Brissett has faced since taking over, and with the 49ers’ offense getting healthy, the Cardinals have a good chance of being pushed in this one.

There is nowhere else on the slate where you can spend ~$11k in salary and feel this confident in staying on a tourney-winning pace.

How It Works:

As I’ve mentioned many times already this week (in my Journal, in my Friday podcasts, and in the Player Grid), I’m building for Week 11 with the expectation that the story of this weekend will be, “Did you pack as many 30-point scores onto your roster as possible?” Obviously, things could play out differently; but if we played out this slate a hundred times, I believe that would be the story of this slate more often than any other runout, and as such, I want to attack rosters with this thought/angle in mind. This block includes one of the players (McBride) with an excellent shot at going for 30+, and it saves salary at quarterback (a position where we may not see any 30-pointers this week, and where Brissett can easily score 22-25, with pathways to more), thus freeing up salary for the guys on this slate who can go for the 30-point scores we may see popping up in various spots. On top of all that, two of the stronger value plays on this slate from a projections standpoint are Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, but both guys are fairly weak as solo plays. By playing this block, however, you have the opportunity to pull one (or even both!) of those guys into a comprehensive team stack/bet, thus turning the math more heavily in your favor. Given the way I believe this slate is likeliest to play out, this is “the block to beat” in Week 11, and will account for at least half of my bankroll exposure in SE/3-Max this week.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“BBBlock”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Double Pay-Up

As I’ve laid out many times this week :: to me, this week is defined by the potential for multiple high-priced guys to post “had to have it” scores. With that in mind, I want to look for ways to include two of the elite, high-priced guys onto rosters together.

While I wouldn’t be forcing this on 100% of rosters in a larger roster set, this rule is set to run 100% of the time, essentially allowing me to run roster sets with this rule, and to then turn off this rule and run sets without it. The idea is to build a pile of rosters with this rule, and to see what angles/ideas are generated.

This rule says, “On 100% of rosters, include two or three players from this pool.”

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Jacoby Brissett || Joe Flacco || Josh Allen || Justin Herbert || Sam Darnold (I’m fine with Stafford as well)

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Christian McCaffrey – Not a lot to say here other than he is in an incredible spot here and his skill set is a nightmare for the Cardinals defensive scheme.
• Jaylen Warren – Warren is the feature back for the team facing the Bengals. If we just play that blindly every week, we are coming out ahead.
• Rico Dowdle – Classic bounce back spot for Dowdle as the Panthers physical downhill running game is the kryptonite for the Falcons defense. 
• Chase Brown – Last season Brown was dominant when he got the bell cow role and barely left the field for the Bengals. This is a massive game for Cincinnati and Samaje Perine is out, so Brown is a near-lock for a 90% snap share and 20+ touches.
• Aaron Jones Sr. – The Vikings are another team in desperate need of a victory this week in a key divisional matchup. The matchup is elite and Jones is clearly the lead back.
• RJ Harvey – The explosive and dynamic Harvey is in position to potentially have his own “TreVeyon Henderson-like” breakout in a huge divisional game.
• Woody Marks – Another rookie who appears to be on the verge of taking control of the backfield. Modest price tag and great on-paper matchup.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Cherry Pickin’

There aren’t any obvious game environments that jump off the page this week, so I’ll be leaning a bit more on skinny stacks and selective exposure. The plan is to hunt for the best ceiling plays from each price tier and mix in a few contrarian sprinkles where ownership (and logic) don’t line up. And if you identify a chalky player who actually sucks… maybe don’t play him.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 11 has four games that pique my interest:

• Bears @ Vikings
• Bengals @ Steelers
• Seahawks @ Rams
• 49ers @ Cardinals

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Bears @ Vikings

The Bears have been a shootout factory with their suspect defense and potent offense. They’re vulnerable to the pass (26^th in DVOA) and the run (25^th in DVOA), which has given their opponents the luxury of attacking in their preferred method. The Vikings are an adaptable offense, and everything they do should work. It doesn’t hurt that this game is being played in a dome. The Vikings players are all relatively affordable (even Jefferson is affordable by his standards) because they haven’t put up big scores recently. Their last five games have come against BAL // DET // LAC // PHL // CLE. That’s a difficult stretch, and the Bears defense doesn’t compare to their recent competition. I’m going to stack this game from both sides, with my favorite way to play it being McCarthy + Jefferson + Addison + Loveland.

Bengals @ Steelers

This game produced 64 points in their first matchup, as the Steelers simply refused to cover Ja’Marr Chase. He had an absurd 23 targets, and while it’s not reasonable to expect that again, it is reasonable to assume the Bengals are going to throw the ball a ton. It’s amazing the way the league has agreed to let Joe “what is dead may never die” Flacco throw the ball 45 times a game at the end of his career. The Bengal defense can’t stop anyone, which means the Bengals must put up points. With Joe Burrow on the mend, this might be Joe Flacco’s last game as a starter. Expect him to go out with a bang. My favorite stack in this game is Flacco + Brown + Chase + Metcalf.

Seahawks @ Rams

This is a division game between two good teams, which scares me, but they both have too much offensive firepower to ignore. I see this game as having a broader range of outcomes than the two games above it on this list, but if it breaks to the upside, it could be the game that produces the most slate-breaking scores. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been unstoppable, and so has Puka Nacua. Would it shock anyone if they both put up 35 + point games in a shootout? It’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s worth building for the possibility that the two best fantasy WRs both go off in the same game. It’s expensive, but possible, because of the cheap options available at RB. My favorite way to play this game is Stafford + Williams + Puka + JSN. 

49ers @ Cardinals

Brock Purdy is set to return, and he should elevate the game environment. These are two of the most concentrated offenses in the league, especially now that Marvin Harrison is sidelined. Neither of these teams has been especially strong on defense, and Jacob Brissett has made all the Arizona pass catchers relevant. There are going to be a lot of popular players in this game, and for good reasons. I see this as a game environment bet, and if I’m going to play the popular pieces from this game, it’s going to be in a game stack. My favorite way to play this game is Brissett + Wilson + McBride + CMC.

Key Values

Jameis Winston ($4,600)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 11 Topics

1. A Unique Slate

2. Chasing Waterfalls

3. Face Plants

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

One thing that makes this slate unique is that I forgot to enter my Oracle answers on time…

But in addition to that (and more relevant to you), I could see this slate being defined by:

1) Quarterbacks priced below $6k (either getting you enough points to keep you on track for a tourney win while opening salary to spend up in other places, or even just getting you enough points to be the quarterback you needed to play this week).

2) Players who score 30-40 points.

Generally speaking, the more bets we can have in one spot, the more we turn the math in our favor. Trying to get a bunch of onesies right is not the most mathematically sound way to make money in DFS over time. But to me (and of course, I could be wrong! — so take this as just one person’s approach to the week), this looks like a week in which we’ll see several players scoring 30 points, and in which we may even have one or two guys going for 40+.

Putting these things together, I’ll be focusing on lower-cost quarterbacks this week, while looking for unique ways to pack as many “potential 30+ scores” onto a roster as I can. It won’t be surprising to me if winning rosters this week feature four or five guys who score 30+ — and if that ends up being the case, I want to make sure I gave myself the best possible chance of pulling as many of those 30+ scores onto a roster as I could.

Xandamere >>

We have some really cheap and somewhat dubious value (though there are a lot of viable value plays so at least 1 of them is highly likely to get there!). We have a lot of high-end guys in great spots (and no clear one “best” high-end play – at least to me – which means that while a lot of those guys are pulling ownership, none of them is likely to get to truly massive chalk status). We have multiple environments one could build stacks around, both on the premium end and the cheap end. Let the games begin! 

Hilow >>

This slate has a similar feel to the one we saw last week with one key difference – we have a bunch of potential value pieces at running back in Week 11. But like last week, we don’t feel great about many game environments despite numerous games with elevated game totals, there are numerous players we want to be spending up for (particularly at wide receiver and tight end) but we don’t have clear paths to access multiple of them together one a roster, and we’re seeing some seriously fragile chalk develop. Also like last week, this leaves us with an uncomfortable feeling when building rosters as there aren’t many places for either projectable certainty (top tier point-per-dollar projections) or directional certainty (high likelihood of a team succeeding). As a game theorist, slates like this one are my favorite to build for (also like last week).

Mike >>

I think there are a bunch of cheap QBs in solid enough spots that through volume or matchup they post a very good score for salary.

I also think there are like 7 or 8 RBs from $5,400 to $6,100 that have a good enough talent/role/matchup combination that we almost certainly get 2 or 3 of them scoring 20 to 25 points. At TE, McBride, Kittle, and Gadsden both have nice ceilings for price at TE. And spending up at WR gives a lot of paths to ceiling with all of JJ, Chase, Puka, and JSN in position to go nuclear.

All of those contextual aspects of this slate make it so I will be surprised if winning lineups aren’t primarily made from sub-$6k QB plus a couple RBs from that $5,400 to $6,100 range plus a bunch of stud pass catchers. All of this above is a good example of the “macro approach” type of stuff I reference a lot. Similar to when we talk about being directionally correct on a team scoring a lot of points.

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2. Chasing Waterfalls

The Question ::

This week we have an 11-game slate with FIVE of those games having game totals between 46.5 and 49.5. No games have implied totals above 49.5, while the other six are all a step or two below this “Fab 5” group. We know that targeting the right game environment is often the key to a slate and that while hitting on the “smash” players for a given week is important it is also usually a necessity to find the right game to play multiple players from. With that in mind, which game from this group is your favorite game environment bet to make?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

OWS is about original thinking. Original thinking is difficult in 2025 (almost 2026). There is so much noise out there. With how digitally connected we all are these days, it’s impossible to avoid information. My typical day (which is not likely to be much different than many others) is going from hours on end behind one screen (laptop/desktop), while mixing in my little screen (phone), and then transitioning some nights to a third screen in my house to “relax” (televisions). To say I need to go touch grass would be accurate. But to say I also can’t avoid information, advertisements, and more would also be accurate. So whether I want to or not, the hundreds of clicks I make on my screens in a day bring me into information. Because the algorithms love me, and much of my interests in the Fall are around football, of course, I’m seeing thoughts about the NFL. Then of course, there’s this little gig with OWS that I’m privileged to be a part of, which motivates me quite a bit more to make sure I’m up to date.

The byproduct of all of this is that by Fridays, when I sit down to write this piece, I am swimming upstream to give you original thoughts. Rewind three to four years ago, and honestly, it was different. But here in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season, the only way to really zoom out properly is to avoid content and give myself a break. That’s basically what I did this week with one lone exception – reading JM’s Journal (that stuff is gold). Maybe this was, and maybe this wasn’t, the introduction you expected here today, but at least consider it a disclaimer as we build our lineup that is willing to lose in Week 11.

Kimani Vidal + Travis Etienne Jr.

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 11 Overview

This week, we have a four game afternoon slate with all of the games being divisional rivals and varying amounts of weather concerns and a wide range of outcomes. The BAL/CLE game is a rematch and has bad weather in the forecast, with two very good defenses involved and one MVP candidate, and one potential benching candidate at QB. It wouldn’t be shocking if the SEA/LAR game is low scoring or high scoring. The KC/DEN game seems like it should be very competitive, but there is also a chance the Chiefs take control and win handily. In either case, it seems unlikely to be a shootout. The SF/ARI game has the 49ers offense finally back intact and their defense completely in shambles, but facing an injury-riddled Cardinals offense. What happens in that game on that side of the ball in particular will probably decide the fate of this slate. Is the 49ers defense so depleted that the Cardinals are able to have their way against them even with all of their own injuries? If so, Arizona stacks and stuff around this game will probably dominate the slate. Or does the Cardinals lack of talent among their skill players lead to them struggling against a 49ers defense lacking talent that is well coached? If the 49ers are able to control this one, that would probably knock out a lot of rosters built around this spot. I think when building rosters around any teams on this slate, we need to consider the SF/ARI game as well and what our “story” is saying about that spot. 

The final angle to consider on this smaller slate is that we have three extremely high priced players (JSN, Puka, and CMC) all available. Basically, every roster will have one of them, while probably 20 to 30% of rosters will have two of them. From a strategy perspective, building rosters with either none of them or all three of them would be a clear and direct way to make your lineup unique.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• JJ McCarthy – A sub-$7k dual threat quarterback at home, in a dome, facing easily the worst defense he has seen all season. Clear stacking partners.
• Brock Purdy – We get Purdy returning to the field in a great matchup against a Cardinals defense he should have success against with all his playmakers on the field. The 49ers defense is in shambles, so expect Purdy to have to keep scoring all game.
• Justin Herbert – The Chargers go as Herbert goes. Jacksonville’s defense is good enough against the run and susceptible in the middle of the field to make Herbert stacks very appealing for tournaments.

Running Back::

• Rico Dowdle – This matchup is perfect for Dowdle’s downhill physical style as the Falcons are built to rush the passer but can be bullied up front. Expect 22 to 25 touches from Dowdle with upside for more.
• Josh Jacobs – Another elite matchup we are targeting with the Giants run defense that has been hammered all season. Jacobs should be the focal point of Green Bay’s offense and 100+ rushing yards with multiple touchdowns seems like a strong bet.
• Jaylen Warren – Warren is the feature back for the team facing the Bengals. If we just play that blindly every week, we are coming out ahead.
• Chase Brown – Last season Brown was dominant when he got the bell cow role and barely left the field for the Bengals. This is a massive game for Cincinnati and Samaje Perine is out, so Brown is a near-lock for a 90% snap share and 20+ touches.
• Aaron Jones Sr. – The Vikings are another team in desperate need of a victory this week in a key divisional matchup. The matchup is elite and Jones is clearly the lead back.
• RJ Harvey – The explosive and dynamic Harvey is in position to potentially have his own “TreVeyon Henderson-like” breakout in a huge divisional game.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Aaron Rodgers + Jaylen Warren + Tee Higgins

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• The Week 11 FD main slate includes 11 total games with the Colts and Saints on bye and an early morning Dolphins vs Commanders game in Spain. The slate consists of seven early kickoffs and four games in the late afternoon. This week is setting up to be another one where I’m focused on getting some strategic information from the early games so I can focus on some of my favorite players and stacks from the later games. 
• One game in particular stands out to me as the starting point for the majority of my SE/3-Max lineups this week, the 49ers (25.75) at Cardinals (22.75) game with one of the highest implied totals on the slate.
• Beyond the high-implied point total, there are a lot of moving parts here with significant injury-related news to consider:
  • Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are set to return for the 49ers, with their offense now as close to full strength as it has been since George Kittle left before halftime of Week 1.
  • The Cardinals, still missing their top three RBs, are now missing their top WR, Marvin Harrison Jr., who is out after a mid-week appendectomy.
• This game features two much-maligned and oft-injured defenses and features two fantasy-viable QBs, the slate’s most expensive player, the slate’s two highest-priced TEs, and several affordable WR options to consider.
• The combination of elite foundational pieces to build any lineup around, and some interesting value plays to play around either this game, or to help afford expensive pieces in other games, has SF at AZ top of mind for my key lineup decisions this week.

Running Back Approach