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    OWS Fam!

    I have this rule in DFS. No matter the result, turn the page.

    The first real rule of DFS is you never want to bet what you aren’t willing to lose. And if we agree that’s the first rule, we could argue the second rule is that the last slate’s results have no effect on the next slate’s outcomes.

    There’s always some element of running hot and refining the process to where we are building the right lineups day after day, week after week. But one of the fascinating aspects of DFS is that win or lose, the slate resets and what worked on the last slate is not guaranteed to work on the next one. It’s one of the most prominent ironies of winning big in DFS that whatever worked for you, you are likely to go back to it time and time again (I have learned this the hard way with game overstacks for many years), and the reality is there were many factors that built toward why that specific strategy worked on that specific slate.

    In life, this works too. Reflecting on the past is bound to make us sharper on what our futures will look like. But all the events that have happened in our past were circumstantial. They happened because of many different factors in play, and yet because we experienced it, we overestimate the likelihood of these events happening again. We’re confident, even though we know there will always be variables that cannot be controlled. It’s why the future is so unpredictable, but it’s why it’s fun to daydream and, in this context, predict exactly what will happen in real NFL games.

    So, we’re onto Week 10 in the 2025 season; and remember that no matter your results, you need to turn the page. What you did on the last slate has no bearing on this one. What you do on the next won’t matter for the slate after that. Reshuffle the deck and start fresh. It’s Thursday, so I’m sure many of us are already on our way.

    $1 Weekly Pass

    In the 10th edition of this Angles Email, your brain should already be expecting a promotion right here. And your brain was right!

    This week, you can join OWS on a full weekly pass for one dollar! Probably a good investment this week. Probably not enough money that you need to run it by a significant other who you budget with. 

    Pretty cool deal for a pretty cool site.

    Week 10 :: Four at the Top

    We have a 10-game slate yet again with the Falcons and Colts meeting in Berlin, Germany and four teams (Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, Titans) on a bye. Also off the main slate are the Raiders and Broncos, who meet tonight. We also have the Steelers and Chargers on Sunday night, and Eagles // Packers on Monday.

    In terms of game environments, as we get later into the season we’ll continue to see some lopsided spreads emerge and the true game environments to target start to become less obvious. This situation is emerging this week but because we know a lot about these teams by Week 10, there are three environments that immediately catch my eye.

    • Giants (21.5)  at Bears (25.75) O/U 47… With the way Jaxson Dart has produced fantasy points and with how rough both of these defenses have looked at times this season, the on-paper play here is the over. Two offensive-minded head coaches, with young quarterbacks who take chances. The only real difference between the Giants and the Bengals (last week’s Bears opponent) is the talented wideouts for Cincy along with the older QB, plus a real pass rush from the Giants. Those factors could be enough to hold this game back (in fairness, Chase and Higgins are not in the same stratosphere as Wan’Dale and Slayton), but I’d still be comfortable calling this one a poor-man’s version of last week’s Bears // Bengals.
    • Ravens (26.5) at Vikings (22.5) O/U 49… Similar to Dart, J.J. McCarthy may hold the car keys to this game environment at the moment. Surprising to most, he was able to bounce back and push the Lions last week, even coming out with a 27-24 victory. The kid does not lack confidence, and he has the talent at wide receiver. Baltimore’s defense does rank bottom-10 in yards per play allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed, so the path is there for Minnesota’s offense. The blitz-happy Vikings defense (No. 2 in NFL) plays a boom-or-bust style, and a healthy Lamar Jackson could help exploit this. 
    • Patriots (23) at Tampa Bay (25.5) O/U 48.5…Two of the top-six rushing defenses in the NFL (Tampa gets the reputation boost) in terms of total rushing yards allowed, with New England in particular leading the NFL and not giving up a 50-yard-plus rusher all season. That’s okay though, because Tampa has no interest in running the football, even if Bucky Irving returns from injury. This factor alone should enhance the play volume; then it’s a question of game script and how New England plays with its less-talented offense.
    • Rams (27.5) at 49ers (22) O/U 48.5…No matter who starts for the 49ers, there should be plenty of points scored in this game. They met on a Thursday night back in Week 5 (49ers win 26-23 in OT), and the two QBs (Mac and Stafford) combined to throw the ball 96 times! San Francisco’s defense continues to rank last in the NFL in pressure rate on the QB, second to last in sacks, and bottom four in blitzes. Stafford should be comfortable, but how will that translate to fantasy points? Bet on receptions, not yardage totals for the Rams pass catchers. Divisional matchup, second matchup of the season, two coaches who know each other well, etc.; just a wide range of outcomes, and possibly a high ceiling.

    “Tier 1” 

    Beyond the game environments, there’s always the handful of offenses expected to put up a slate-leading amount of points. In Week 10, that’s the Bills (at Miami), Lions (at Washington), and Seahawks (vs. Arizona). Josh Allen played the role of one-man show in the somewhat convincing Bills win last week hosting Kansas City. His offense should face less resistance this week with the tanking Dolphins. But that’s what we should expect. It will be hot in Miami for the time of year (and for what Buffalo is used to). Allen is Allen, however. And Tua is Tua. We’ve seen some crazy games from these two over the years, but usually later in the season (like the 56-26 in Week 17 of 2020), so with the circumstances, it’s likely Buffalo just wants a low-risk win here. At least that’s what we should expect…

    Detroit can’t wait for kickoff, likely more than any other team this week, after the surprising loss in Week 9 to Minnesota. Washington is reeling off the likely season-ending loss of Jayden Daniels and is coming off a short week, which doesn’t really set them up in the best position to succeed. Wide receivers continue to torch Washington (second worst in yards allowed and fantasy points allowed), setting up the perfect spot for an Amon-Ra St. Brown explosion.

    Speaking of WR explosions, there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been so good this season, I don’t have to look up how to spell his name correctly. Arizona travels to Seattle on a short week, after a convincing MNF win in Dallas. JSN and Sam Darnold are clicking, and Seattle’s defense showed why the Seahawks are a true contender in a loaded NFC. If Jacoby Brissett can continue to keep the Cards frisky here, this game could challenge the others; but the talent on the Seattle side defensively, with Mike Macdonald’s schemes, may put a wet blanket on that idea.

    “Tier 3”

    Skipping over Tier 2 here, the remaining games on this slate leave much to be desired. It’s important to note, as always, that this is likely how the field will also see these games. There can always be superior box scores that emerge from these environments, but all of the Jets // Browns, Saints // Panthers, and Jags // Texans do little to inspire confidence. First, we have the Jets trading their two best defensive players, opposite Dillon Gabriel. Then Tyler Shough and the Saints going to Carolina, with the only guarantee in this game being Rico Dowdle’s carries. And finally the Jaguars without Travis Hunter and now likely Brian Thomas Jr. facing a Texans team likely quarterbacked by Davis Mills. I think we’re good here.

    DFS regenerates every week. New matchups, new slate, new prizes to be won. Turn the page on last week’s slate and go through these matchups with a keen eye. All of this is obvious. 

    And so was the way I wrote about each of these. So where can the expected outcomes be turned on their heads to produce unexpected results?

    Get your $1 pass to find out more on the site this weekend, and we’ll see you in the Binks channel on Sunday.

    ~ Larejo

    JM’s Journal

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

    JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

    TUESDAY, NOV. 4 ::

    INITIAL PATRIOTS-BUCS ANGLES ::

    We have to assume there will be a lot of passing in ne/tb. two teams that are really difficult to run against. the bucs, in particular, are willing to just let it rip. the pats will almost certainly strive to stay balanced throughout, but we should ultimately see higher-than-normal passing volume for both teams.

    INITIAL THOUGHTS ON WEEK 10 CEILING FOR WRs/RBs ::

    I see more “question marks toward ceiling” at high-cost rb than at high-cost wr this week, which creates a really fun/unique setup.

    typically, we lock in our highest certainly at rb; but if we have question marks on ceiling at high-cost rb, and we’re trying to win tourneys, it may tilt us toward saving saleh at rb in order to maximize our chances of securing ceiling at wr.

    puka in a likely competitive game

    jsn likely seeing enough volume to pop

    arsb vs a very soft secondary (albeit with moderate volume concerns)

    egbuka in a likely high-volume passing game

    nico vs a team that literally most of his biggest games in his career have come against

    waddle (assuming no trade) vs buf where wr1s have feasted

    and then on top of that we have davante and jj with ceiling

    meanwhile, at rb, we have cmc at $9k in a poor matchup for ceiling, gibbs with a high ceiling but a low price-considered floor, james cook & derrick henry with high rushing ceilings but limited pass game involvement (leaving us with a low floor), achane with games of 26.2 and 34 this season, but with 20.1 or fewer points in every other game, and kyren at $6.6k having cracked 20.4 only once.

    where are we likelier to find tourney winners?

    this will be a fun little challenge to deal with this week — on a week in which our builds might end up looking a little different than normal.

    INITIAL WEEK 10 PRICING THOUGHTS ::

    The last few weeks, we’ve regularly seen value open up deeper into the week.

    it looks like pricing is a bit tight this week, so i’m not super focused on practice builds just yet. instead, i’m more focused on just continuing to open the slate and flip through matchups and see what thoughts develop.

    just an angle worth highlighting: we might not need to worry too much, just yet, about how we’ll fit the pieces we like. maybe the answer to that will become more clear toward the end of the week — and if it’s a week where that’s not the case…well, those are the types of weeks where it’s typically best to not overthink your salary savers, anyway. when there is no strong value, it’s best to just pick a few pieces that have upside and let it rip.

    EARLY WEEK 10 QB THOUGHTS ::

    QBs i have eyes on ::

    dart at chi
    caleb v nyg

    lamar at min

    maye at tb

    stafford at lar

    goff at was

    RISING SALARIES FOR JT, CMC AND PRODUCTION COMPARISON TO MYSTERY TWO-PLAYER BLOCK:

    We’re at the point in the season (jonathan taylor, and nearly there with CMC, puka, and jsn) where we can start to really wrap our heads around what we’re looking for from a player who costs, say, $10.2k.

    think about the game logs for those guys.

    for jt, the occasional score in the high teens or low 20s, and a bunch of games in the mid- to high-30s.

    for cmc (removing the game v houston), 100% of games going for low-20s and higher, with only two over 30, but with both of those being difference-making games (37/42).

    for puka, every healthy game but one in the 20s, with the one exception being a game of 39.0.

    so. okay.

    the following “game log” is for the last 17 games of a block of correlated players who cost $10.2k (basically jt; maybe soon to be cmc)…

    46.9
    38.5
    56.4
    38.8
    28.0
    51.7
    20.1
    38.2
    44.3
    47.5
    35.3
    44.2
    38.4
    30.9
    27.7
    42.2
    54.1

    i’m not being withholding, but i’m not going to post the player block for like 30 minutes. the goal is that you’ll go through that game log and think about what it would look like in the draftkings app if this were the end of the season, and this were the full-season game log of a $10.2k player.

    how popular would this player be? (and then imagine that they were letting us cover two spots with this player, turning the math even more in our favor, and not requiring us to be salary-constricted elsewhere?)

    PLAYER-BLOCK REVEAL ::

    There’s nothing sneaky or magical about this block. it’s lamar jackson + mark andrews.

    andrews has double-digit points in 12 of 17 (13.8+ in 11/17), which is outrageously consistent for a guy at $3.4k — especially as sentiment on him is low, and he never gets rostered at a high rate as a result.

    furthermore, a lot of the games in which lamar has “disappointed” with 22/23ish, andrews has scored ~15+ to pull up this block.

    and if lamar has a huge game (35+) without andrews making a huge impact (which also sometimes happens), you’re not suffering too much as there are games in which lamar just doesn’t hit with anyone, so anyone stacking him is probably also playing andrews, or has a pretty good shot at spending even more salary for a disappointing score. (furthermore, the main competition for a lamar/andrews roster — if lamar hits without andrews — is lamar/zay; and as we’ve explored, this one is almost never the ideal way to play this, as zay isn’t used as a major red zone threat for this offense.)

    if this were a wr/rb block — or something similar — i would probably play it on 100% of rosters this week.

    because it’s qb/pass-catcher, it’s a bit more complicated, as you can only play one quarterback, and there are things out there like flacco/higgins last week, or bo nix hanging 40 a few weeks ago, etc.

    i don’t want to totally cut myself off from other options that could “win the slate at multiple spots,” but this does also (clearly) have the ceiling to be “that play” if things come together.

    furthermore, hitting even the typical floor of this block keeps you in contention for a solid weekend even if something else goes off. we saw that last week with a similar block in trevor lawrence // parker washington. we laid out scores for that $8.8k block late last week, comparing it to similarly-priced players. that ended up going for 39.2 last week (basically beating cmc by a couple points for the same salary spent, while making it easy to also have cmc on that roster). this was a) barely more than flacco scored on his own for $5.6k (not ideal), b) still a tremendous score for $8.8k, and c) still good enough that i was in the top 5% in tourneys on a roster that took a dud from dk metcalf and a relative dud from kareem hunt alongside this block. a long way of saying: this block isn’t perfect. but it’s damn good.

    Crash the leaderboards
    PFP the OWS pennant

    WEDNESDAY, NOV. 5 ::

    NICO COLLINS THOUGHTS ::

    We talked about this earlier in the season, but just to recap ::

    Taking out his first two years (no games cracking 16 DK points), Nico Collins has now played 34 regular season games.

    He has gone for 26+ DraftKings points eight times (which is — by the way — far lower than the hit rate the field seems to peg to him; that’s a 23.5% hit rate of keeping you on a 194-point pace, at a price tag where guys start to get far more consistent; and that’s if we just cherry-pick his last few years), and three of those games have come against Jacksonville. Furthermore, he has gone for 22.9+ in four straight against Jacksonville.

    This all becomes less interesting this time around, with Davis Mills under center. But it’s at least a data point worth shouting out.

    JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA VS. CARDINALS THOUGHTS ::

    JSN is an interesting guy to think through this week. At $8.6k, he has not posted 4x his salary a single time this year, and he’s playing an Arizona defense that generally forces tight-window throws, and that — more importantly — is starting Jacoby Brissett against this ferocious Seattle pass rush (making it seem at least somewhat unlikely that the Seahawks are pushed in this one).

    JSN has averaged 24.5 DK points per game on only 78 targets (an outrageous 2.51 DK points per target), but it’s tough to project him for more than 9-11 targets in this spot.

    The ceiling is tremendous, and the floor is high enough to justify the play. But I do wonder if we’ll move deeper into the week and find that he’s maybe not at the absolute top of the list among all the intriguing wide receiver options.

    PUKA VS. 49ERS THOUGHTS ::

    Contrasting with JSN, Puka is averaging 2.34 DK points per target (also elite), and in a game against the 49ers (especially with some healthy bodies potentially returning for San Francisco on offense), it’s not difficult to paint a picture of Puka seeing 13-15 targets.

    Both guys are tremendous plays, and it’s a bit early in the week to worry about ranking one guy higher than the other; but there does appear to be a bit of a tilt toward Puka here.

    PATS VS. BUCCANEERS DEEPER DIVE ::

    Probably a bit of a hot take here, but I think the Patriots are a tier better than the Bucs. While their records are similar, the Pats have been far more dominant on a down-to-down basis, and if we remove the weirdness of Week 1, their slip-ups have mostly been self-imposed (four fumbles in their 7-point loss to Pittsburgh; a late-half pick that completely shifted the flow of the game vs Atlanta). The Bucs, on the other hand, have been inconsistent on a down-to-down basis, and have pieced together a 6-2 record with late-game magic from Baker. Obviously, this game is in Tampa, which needs to be thought about // accounted for; but in terms of “how this game could play out,” I do think those factors are at least worth keeping in mind.

    As for this game as a whole, I honestly wonder how much I’ll go here.

    We know this is a poor spot for each run game, which we like in terms of “pass funnel spot” for each team; but things get a bit complicated after that.

    On the Pats’ side, we can confidently expect a strong game from Drake Maye (with an elite game within range as an outlier outcome), and if Maye hits, we probably get one pass catcher hitting with him. But who will that “one pass catcher” be? That’s a question mark each week — and generally speaking, that “one pass catcher who hits” isn’t hitting for a big enough score to justify the guessing-game risk we take on. In large-field play, there is definitely an angle here, but I don’t currently see this shaping up as a spot I’ll get to on tighter builds.

    On the Bucs’ side, we have Emeka Egbuka with ceiling, but we also have a borderline-elite defense in the Pats, with only Miami (in Miami — with Christian Gonzalez still missing in action) and Atlanta (through several superhuman catches by Drake London) cracking 21 points in this matchup. Miami scored 27. Atlanta scored 23.

    If you want to paint a positive picture for Egbuka: the Falcons were able to use stacks and motion to get London onto Marcus Jones for a few big plays, and as is the case with any corner: you can’t guard a perfect throw (or a perfect catch), which allowed London to score a touchdown in coverage from Gonzalez as well. Egbuka can absolutely get there; but at his price, I do think we’re fighting a bit of an uphill battle.

    The Patriots are also a game-plan defense, which will have their attention on Egbuka; but this does open an interesting question. “If we expect the Bucs to be passing, and we expect the Pats to focus their attention on Egbuka, doesn’t this open the opportunity for another pass catcher to hit at a low price tag?” Because the Pats have been so good at limiting touchdowns, we could easily come away from this game with no one on the Bucs posting high-end production; but if anyone is going to get there, a couple good options are Tez Johnson and Cade Otton. Tez is effectively the WR2 now (assuming no Chris Godwin), and his downfield chops do give him some level of ceiling. Otton, meanwhile, costs only $3.9k on DK, and has recent games of 12.1 // 10.1 // 13.5 // 8.0, all without a touchdown scored. He’s been more heavily emphasized amidst all the pass catcher injuries for the Bucs, and the Pats have been soft against tight ends all season.

    QUINSHON JUDKINS THOUGHTS ::

    Not much to like from the Browns // Jets game (obviously), but if we’re looking for a viable mid-range running back, Quinshon Judkins is an option. Given the structure of the Jets’ offense and how they like to attack games — where their weaknesses are; where their (relative) strengths are; etc. — it’s hard to see them having much success this week against the Browns. This should allow the Browns to focus on short-area passing, and to slam Judkins into a Jets defense now missing Quinnen Williams in the middle.

    I would like Judkins quite a bit more if he were, say, $5.8k instead of $6.5k. But there is at least opportunity here for solid to high-end game.

    SAINTS // PANTHERS THOUGHTS ::

    Saints // Panthers is another game without much to like.

    Given that the Panthers (for the first time all season!) are favorites, and given that the Saints have A) looked much better at home than on the road this year, and B) looked better with Rattler than with Shough so far, the only clear pathway for this game getting away from Carolina and them falling into a hole that forces them out of their standard game plan is for this team to simply come out flat after a big win in Green Bay. Barring that outcome, we should see this game playing close enough that the Panthers can lean on the run as the core staple of their offense; and if they’re leaning on the run, that means they are leaning on Rico Dowdle. Dowdle will almost certainly be popular this week at only $6.3k, but he also has games of 35.4 // 36.9 // 31.1 in his three starts. He’s locked in as the starter // workhorse back moving forward, and this is a decent matchup in a positive expected game environment. I think we can all comfortably acknowledge that there is some fragility attached to “a chalk play on the Panthers,” but Dowdle is also, obviously, a sharp way (on paper) to attack the slate this week.

    On the Saints’ side, the Rashid Shaheed trade could open additional opportunity/ceiling for Olave and Juwan Johnson, in particular; but I don’t see myself getting there on tighter builds this week.

    GIANTS-BEARS THOUGHTS ::

    Performance under pressure has been the only blemish for Jaxson Dart this season, and he is taking on a Chicago defense that is bottom five in pressure rate. Dart costs only $5.7k and has scored 18.6+ in every start this season. He has a rushing score in all but one start, which I have been holding against him in my own assessment of where he fits on a given slate (“he can’t possibly keep this up”), but at some point, we have to just acknowledge that what a player is doing is what a player is doing.

    Who to play with Dart is a bigger question mark. With Slayton back in the mix, Wan’Dale Robinson saw 11 targets, but he was also back in his old “nothing downfield” role — finishing the day against the 49ers with nine catches for 46 yards (LOL). The targets will be there, but something will have to break his way for ceiling. On the flip side, Slayton went 5-62-0, and continues to see bankable usage on the outside when he plays; but this team doesn’t take enough shots for Slayton to have any sort of floor, making him an “all ceiling, no floor” type of play. A case could be made for either of these guys with Dart. A case could also be made for playing Dart naked, or for playing him with Theo Johnson and hoping that all of the incredible touchdown luck continues (Dart rushing for touchdowns and throwing to Theo Johnson for scores). There are better on-paper plays than all these pass catchers, but there is also a world in which a Dart stack actually ends up being the best way to have played the slate, especially in this spot.

    “This spot” includes Ben Johnson’s Bears taking on yet another attackable defense.

    If Swift plays in this spot, the backfield may be hands-off; but if Swift misses, Monangai is once again a strong option in a matchup that, in many ways, is just as good as the matchup he had last week (with the main edge in the Bengals matchup being the higher “team scoring” ceiling that comes in those games).

    Through the air, it seems highly probable that we see a hard correction back toward Odunze here. Odunze entered last week with target counts on the season of 9 // 11 // 7 // 8 // 5 // 6 // 10, and proceeded to see only three looks in a game that produced 89 combined points, posting a zero on zero catches. (Wow!) The heel issue for Odunze may be a bigger deal than the team is letting on, and of course, we have a Bears team that has lowered their passing volume since the bye; but with his price dropping and sentiment on him surely dropping as well, we should be keeping him in mind.

    Caleb has an extremely high ceiling here, but he also has a lower floor than most will probably give him credit for. In his last seven games, Caleb has games of 29.1 and 38.7, but he also has under 20 points in his other five, including games of 5.7, 12.8, and 12.8. Given how high his ceiling is, he can’t simply be placed in the “higher-risk, so only play him in large-field” bucket, but we do have to balance his chances of going for a ceiling outcome with the downside he brings to the table as well.

    I expect the field to overreact to Loveland’s box score from last week (17.0 DK points before his magical game-winning catch; 32.8 when all said and done), but if Kmet misses with his concussion this week, Loveland is definitely in the mix. Honestly, you can’t go wrong throwing darts at this offense. The question is just whether or not your darts land on the spots where production will come.

    JOSH ALLEN-JAMES COOK UPSIDE VS. DOLPHINS ::

    We’ve been on this matchup for Josh Allen since 2018, when we had him at no ownership in the first legitimate slate-breaker of his career (41.5 DK points in the final game of the season vs Miami). Through changing coaches, personnel, etc., Allen has always owned the Dolphins — though his production in Miami (84 degrees forecast for Sunday, with 74% humidity) has paled in comparison to what he has done to the Dolphins at home. He’s on the radar for me, but I don’t think I’ll actually end up getting there on tighter builds.

    The same might actually go for James Cook as well, who has been outrageously good this year, but who also has only two targets across his last four games. To me, this looks like a team setting a tendency that they plan to break later (i.e., lull opponents into thinking Cook is no longer part of their schemed passing attack, then have a game in which Cook is heavily involved through the air in creative ways). We know Cook entered the league as a “pass-catching back with question marks on the ground,” and he has been a productive pass-catcher throughout his career. That said: if the Bills didn’t break that tendency against the Chiefs, it doesn’t seem likely that this is the spot where they’ll throw a changeup out there. We might be waiting until Bills // Patriots in Week 15 for this tendency to change (or Bills // Eagles in Week 17, or even the playoffs). This leaves Cook as a likely yardage-and-touchdown back priced at $7.5k, giving us more difficult paths to the upside. As good as Cook has been this year, he has cracked 25.5 DK points only two times (and that’s with a bigger pass-catching role through the early part of the season). Furthermore, Miami has fixed a lot of their early-season run defense issues of late. After Cook ripped through Carolina and Kansas City, this doesn’t concern us; but we also can’t look at this game as an obvious matchup bump. I see Cook as a player with a few more paths to the downside than the average $7.5k back, and with a few fewer paths to the upside as well. He can absolutely hit, but the confidence isn’t there the way it sometimes is with a talented back in this price range.

    Put it all together, and it won’t surprise me if I don’t have heavy exposure to the Bills this week.

    DOLPHINS ANGLES ::

    On the other side of this game, we basically have Achane, Waddle, and no one else.

    We touched on this earlier in the week, but Achane has a high floor (16+ DK points in all but one game this year — and that “one game” was against the Browns) and a high ceiling, but his chances of reaching that ceiling are dented by the offense he’s in. He has only two games all season north of 20.1 DK points. That said: this is a spot where he could post another such game.

    Waddle is the play from this offense that stands out the most. If we take out a game in bad weather against the Browns’ defense, Waddle has posted DK scores (lowest to highest) of 14.2 // 15.8 // 20.9 // 26.0 since Tyreek Hill went down, with 95+ yards in three of those four games (and with the 100-yard bonus in only one of those; i.e., he’s a few yards away from an extra three points in a couple of those games). The Bills now have Maxwell Hairston, which could prove to be a game-changer here; but so far on the season, the Bills have been one of the most generous defenses in the NFL to WR1s, and Waddle’s role is as bankable as they come.

    KENNETH WALKER III THOUGHTS ::

    Through this angle of potentially saving some salary at running back, I keep eyeing Kenneth Walker. We know that the Seahawks are going to continue splitting things, but in a game where the Seahawks should, at worst, be playing things close throughout, and where they could easily be in control throughout, Walker should be in line for a healthy workload. Walker has games of 20 and 17 touches in games Charbs has played, and is reliably seeing 11-14 touches in most games. It’s somewhat thin, but there is an angle here to at least consider. After Walker saw snaps inside the 5-yard-line for the first time in over a month, we could have a signal that the Seahawks are going to start tilting things a bit more in his favor. (At the least, a guy can hope.)

    CARDINALS ANGLES ::

    Going through all these games. I’m not sure I want anything on Arizona outside of potential interest in McBride. And given how well Arizona has been playing on defense, I’m not sure I’ll end up chasing Seattle outside of maybe taking a swing or two on Walker. Because of their record, the field continues to underrate Arizona, but this is a really good team that just hasn’t been able to close out games, and this defense has made life difficult on really good offenses.

    RAMS // 49ERS THOUGHTS ::

    Rams // 49ers is interesting, as the Rams’ defense is not one we typically want to attack, but with the Rams looking so great on offense and the 49ers crumbling on defense under the weight of their injuries, we can forecast a good game from Los Angeles…and given the coaches involved in this game, we should expect this one to play close. Last time these teams met, the 49ers weren’t given a chance with injuries across the board on offense as well as on defense, and they proceeded to win 26-23 in LA. Realistically, anything can happen in this spot.

    On paper, Puka is the crown jewel, while Kyren is the player who “probably won’t hit, but can,” and Davante is the player who is overpriced for his typical targets, but who has such a monster red zone // end zone role that he can still go for an elite output. There is also a theory out there that the Rams are trying to send a message to AP/MVP voters that Stafford is a guy who has always been overlooked for how good he is, and that they are giving him more scoring opportunities than normal. Whether because of this or simply because of the addition of Davante to this offense, this team ranks fifth in red zone PROE, and when you watch their games, the repeated use of “Stafford to Davante” plays in the red zone stand out in a big way. I won’t branch outside these four (Puka // Davante // Kyren // Stafford), but all four are in the mix here.

    On the 49ers’ side, I see CMC as overpriced for his expected ceiling, and I see the passing attack as more of a place to throw darts than a place to attack with confidence. But again: it’s Shanahan and McVay. Things can get wacky.

    DISCORD

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    LIONS THOUGHTS ::

    Do the Lions want to send a message in this one? Because they have done a poor job running the ball this year, and they have continued to be one of the best passing attacks in the NFL — especially when not pressured. The Commanders are in the bottom-third of the league in pressuring the quarterback, and they have been miserable in coverage. Could this be a week in which the Lions decide to just let it rip through the air and pile up points off a loss to the Vikings? Gibbs is viable here, but Goff // ARSB // Jamo // LaPorta look like the pieces to pay attention to.

    On a per-target basis, ARSB might be the most attractive wide receiver option on this entire slate, with the only question being how many targets he sees here.

    Jamo comes with a low floor and no guarantee of targets, but the matchup lines up really nicely with what he does.

    The Commanders have been torched by tight ends, and have been torched off play-action. LaPorta is a tight end who thrives in the play-action passing game.

    All three look like highly viable one-offs this week, and I’ll definitely be tempted to tie all this together with Goff doubles and possibly even triples.

    EARLY BINK MACHINE RUN RESULTS ::

    Early runs in the Bink Machine are not pretty. Tetairoa McMillan is the third highest-owned player in my initial runs (well…Kyle Monangai was being projected for elite production, so he was up there at the top originally; but Swift said after practice today that he’ll play this week, so I removed Monangai from the pool and ran another couple sets), and Marvin Harrison Jr. is fourth.

    TMac’s best game of the year was 19 DK points, all the way back in Week 2. Bryce Young has cracked 200 passing yards only once all season.

    Marvin Harrison Jr. has only two games over six targets, and he is playing the Seattle defense this week.

    To be clear: projections are smart, and the Bink Machine is smart. This should be taken as a signal of the kind of week it is.

    I mentioned yesterday that I’m not too worried, just yet, about hunting down value. With that approach, I hadn’t built any practice builds until tonight, and had instead focused on getting a head start on thinking through games // players independent of what rosters might look like this week. After building a couple practice builds tonight, however (with Kenneth Walker and Rico Dowdle at running back, no less), I was thinking, “Man, things are a bit tight this week.”

    That led to me heading over to the Bink Machine for the first time to see what it would spit out.

    It should be a fun, interesting week.

    Maybe it’s just optimism (after all, I always think we have edge), but I think we have edge on weeks like this. When things get tricky, the field often takes a simple approach to solving that trickiness — and that simple approach often means leaning into projections-driven chalk that isn’t as good as chalk on other weeks might be.

    There’s still a long way to go in this week, but A) it looks like this will be a tricky one, and B) I’m sure we’ll figure out the ways in which we can turn this to our advantage.

    In case you’re curious ::

    Josh Allen showed up as the highest-exposure QB in these initial sets, followed by Jaxson Dart and Caleb Williams. I probably won’t be on Allen this week due to the way the Bills call their games, and the way I expect that game to play out; but that’s one I won’t argue against. Dart and Caleb are on my early short list of QBs as well (yesterday, that list was Dart // Caleb // Lamar // Maye // Stafford // Goff; Maye might move off my list due to the difficulty in figuring out who to stack him with, though I’m still playing around with that one; the other spots haven’t changed), but after these three, three of the next four are Davis Mills, J.J. McCarthy, and Jacoby Brissett. So…yeah. It’s that kind of week.

    I’m not surprised by what I’m getting at running back :: (in order of exposure, from highest to lowest) Dowdle // Achane // Cook // CMC // Gibbs. Every other running back on the slate came in at 6% or lower on this initial set. Basically: “roster Dowdle, and pay up for usage/floor certainty on another guy, hoping the ceiling comes.” That’s highly likely to be the field’s approach this week, and I think it has merit. I also, however, can see a world in which none of Achane // Cook // CMC // Gibbs go for more than 3x their salary. Basically: there could, ultimately, end up being better ways to build — though if there aren’t, that’s the approach that makes sense.

    With salary allocated at running back and no clear value yet, WR exposures look like this :: TMac // MHJ // Wan’Dale // Odunze // Waddle // Flowers. For some reason, Justin Jefferson is popping next, followed — finally — by Egbuka // ARSB // Puka. JSN showed up on only 3% of rosters, but I would assume that’s nothing more than early-week projection silliness. More instructive is the salary allocation, where the top wideouts are buried down my exposure chart, because there aren’t any strong, cheap running backs to put onto rosters. But again: what if the high-priced running backs all score in the teens and 20s…and what if one or two of the wideouts at $7k and above go for 30+?

    Tight end is for saving salary while targeting upside, with LaPorta // Hunter Henry // Kittle leading the way before we get to McBride. Kincaid, Hockenson, Juwan, and Theo Johnson come next, illustrating how quickly the position thins out.

    THURSDAY, NOV. 6 ::

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW::

    I described the slate in The Oracle, so, in the interest of saving time by not repeating myself, I’ll post what I said there here.

    “The Week 10 main slate is riddled with fragility, maybe more so than any slate we’ve seen this season, which is an interesting conclusion considering seven of the 10 games on the slate carry a game total of 46.5 points or higher. Pricing is also ruthlessly tight, with very little in the way of projectable value. That makes building rosters uncomfortable, which is something I absolutely love. Being comfortable being uncomfortable becomes an elite trait on a slate like this one, and I urge you to consider that when constructing your portfolio in Week 10.”

    I will add that I’m tracking two specific cases of uncertainty that stand out on this slate: the status of D’Andre Swift and the weather in that same game. Each of those pieces can drastically shift my view of the slate, and we might not get full fidelity until Saturday evening or Sunday morning. If Swift is active, there remain very few projectable value pieces, keeping that level of uneasy feelings high when building. If the weather becomes prohibitive in Chicago (far less likely than public perception), some of my angles of accessing value could change. With that, let’s dive in, shall we!?

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

    RICO DOWDLE

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. From the DFS+ of this game:

    “I don’t think you can make many arguments against Rico Dowdle this week. He projects as the top point-per-dollar play on the slate, meaning Sims are going to love him, but that’s really the extent of the negatives here outside of “weird things happen in the NFL.” Excellent on-paper play.

    DE’VON ACHANE

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sims are gravitating towards Achane due to his high median expectation on a slate with few spots of directional certainty. We also must keep in mind that he has hit 20 DK points just three times this season and gone over 26.2 DK points just once. The level of dysfunction in the Miami offense is palpable. I prefer limiting Achane to game environment bets this week.

    ZAY FLOWERS

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I broke Flowers down in the DFS+ of this game, saying, “The current state of the Ravens is such that we’re left effectively hunting for multiple touchdowns. Low volume through the air has left Flowers with only one game over 100 yards this season (back in Week 1), and he has all of one end zone target all season. So, I posit, why? Why is the field so intrigued with that profile this week? If I’m playing Flowers, it must be both paired with Jackson and another Ravens piece, with or without a piece from the Vikings.”

    CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McCaffrey has the most secure and projectable roles in the league, at any position. No issues with riding him until the wheels fall off, regardless of the matchup. That said, the matchup could not possibly be worse for CMC against the defense ceding the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (14.9 DK points per game). Side note – the Rams are the only team yet to allow a rushing score through nine weeks.

    JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN is in an interesting spot. On one hand, the Cardinals are well equipped to limit a player like Smith-Njigba defensively. On the other hand, JSN has some of the wildest splits against Cover-4 you will ever see (pertinent due to the fact that the Cardinals lead the league in Cover-4 utilization), Tory Horton is out, and Rashid Shaheed just joined the team this week. My conclusion is that 30+ scores are likely to be sparser this week, making any player that has that upside within their range of outcomes highly valuable to us. JSN should remain in consideration for that reason alone.

    CHALK BUILD::

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    One Week Stats

    Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

    Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

    Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

    QB

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    By The Numbers

    By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate


    OWS Fam ::

    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


    Sunday Morning Update

    Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

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    The Grid ::

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

    Blue Chips

    :: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Building Blocks

    :: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

    Bonuses

    :: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

    Beta

    :: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds


    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

    Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

    Lamar Jackson
    D’Andre Swift
    Rico Dowdle
    Jalen Coker
    Jaylen Waddle
    Jameson Williams
    Mark Andrews
    Cade Otton
    Browns

    Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

    Buy-In:

    Free

    Rules:

    Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

    Prizes:

    1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

    << Join Here >>

    *must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

    Blue Chips

    No true Blue Chips for me this week.

    “Light Blue” Chips

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    Build-Arounds

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    Building Blocks

    “$10.2k”
    Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews
    Story:

    “What happens 70% of the time happens here”

    Why It Works:

    Imagine a $10.2k player (JT, or “where CMC will probably be soon”) with the following game logs over a 17-game sample:

    46.9
    38.5
    56.4
    38.8
    28.0
    51.7
    20.1
    38.2
    44.3
    47.5
    35.3
    44.2
    38.4
    30.9
    27.7
    42.2
    54.1

    That is, of course, absolutely outrageous production, with 27.7+ in 16/17 (can your CMC or JT do that?), and with 38+ in 12/17 (70%).

    This is what Lamar and Andrews have done across their last 17 games together; and while the obvious point of push-back is that you can’t compare QB // pass-catcher stacks to position players (as quarterbacks have a higher point-per-dollar average than other positions), the actual truth is, this is a much closer comparison than it seems. If you take “A quarterback plus one specific pass catcher” and build out a list of their combined game logs, these game logs would almost always look very similar to what you would expect from an individual running back or wideout at that price (or, in the case of a higher-priced QB/pass-catcher block: to what our eyes would be trained to expect from an individual running back or pass catcher at that theoretical price). A quarterback often hits without his top weapon, or a top weapon hits without the quarterback; or even when these guys hit together, in most instances, you still aren’t getting 4x. The absolute ceiling on QB/pass-catcher pairings is almost always higher, but the actual game-to-game production tends to look a lot like what you would expect from an individual player carrying that same price tag.

    So…again :: 70% of the time, this $10.2k “player” has gone for 38+ points, with 44+ scored 41.2% of the time. Lamar + Andrews has been a cheat code for over a year now, and people continue to overlook it.

    How It Works:

    The cool thing about this block is that people latch onto the price tag on Lamar. “I’ll play Dart instead of Lamar” (Dart + Slayton costs $10.0k, and has gone for 38.4 once, while going for 27.2 or fewer three other times; Dart + Wan’Dale costs $11k, and in games where Wan’Dale has been sharing the field with Slayton, this block has gone for 40.8 once, and for under 27 three other times). I intended to lay out several other examples of “I’ll play this cheap QB instead of Lamar”…but none of those other options (outside of the “$10.6k” block below) are even close to what Dart and his stacking partners provide. Point being: yes, Lamar is expensive; but the clearest way to stack Lamar is with Andrews, and that’s not expensive. In fact, at $10.2k, it’s pretty darn cheap.

    This won’t send you down the path to a tourney win on its own; but if “what happens 70% of the time happens here,” you’ll have a nice edge on the field before getting to the rest of your roster.

    POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

    The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

    “$10.6k”

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    Bink Machine

    A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

    If McBride

    I’m going to be alone on this one, I’m sure; but if a $6k tight end is posting the kind of score you’re hoping for, and his quarterback is $4.6k…well, there’s a pretty good chance this quarterback is also posting a score you’d like to have. Rather than playing McBride solo as a $6k player, I (strongly) prefer to play McBride + Brissett as a combo $10.6k player (see Block above).

    This rule says, “On 100% of rosters that play McBride, also play Brissett” (‘on 100% of rosters with the locked player, include both players in this pool’).

    Bonuses

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    If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

    This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

    If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

    QB ::

    Lamar Jackson || Drake Maye || Jared Goff || Jaxson Dart || Jacoby Brissett

    RB ::

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    A Wrap ::

    I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    -JM

    Mike’s DK Player Grid

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

    The Core ::

    This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my â€œChecking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

    Running Back ::
    • Rico Dowdle – Elite matchup and game script as the Panthers are likely to be able to impose their will on the Saints. The backfield is officially his now, and it is hard to argue with 30+ points in all three of his starts.
    • Christian McCaffrey – CMC struggled against the Texans elite defense last week, but has 23+ DK points in every other game this season and should be plenty active this week in a potential shootout.
    • De’Von Achane – The matchup is terrific here and Achane’s ability as both a runner and receiver should be heavily utilized as the Dolphins work to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills.
    • Bears RB – D’Andre Swift is apparently back healthy after a full practice on Thursday, but a personal issue puts his status for Sunday in question now. The Giants run defense has been awful in recent weeks and the Bears running game has been dominant since their Week 5 bye. This article is posted on Friday evening, so will have to wait to see how things play out, but I fully expect the Bears backfield to produce a lot of points in this matchup which means Monangai would be a smash play once again if Swift misses, while both Monangai and Swift would be elite GPP options if he plays.
    • Kyren Williams – Elite game environment and modest price tag. Smashed the 49ers the first time around and no Fred Warner this time. 

    The five players/situations listed above stand out to me above everything else this week at the running back position. There are a lot of other intriguing options, but in the spirit of recent focus on narrowing down a player pool I think it is important to not try to play all of these guys. I will probably end up with exposure in my large-field MME play to 2 to 4 players from the below, while X-ing out the rest. I would recommend you do the same and accept that you might miss on someone.

    • James Cook – Smashed the Dolphins the first time and set up for another solid game. I am somewhat worried about the Bills playing it smart with Cook and limiting him, especially since they play on Thursday of Week 12 (which means he will play two games in 5 days at that point).
    • DET RBs – Similar to Cook, this is a spot that I expect there to be success from but it is hard for me to wrap my head around how to play it. It feels like Gibbs scoring 20 and Monty getting a touchdown and scoring 15 could easily be a way this plays out.
    • Derrick Henry – The matchup isn’t great, but we know Henry can go off for 30+ points with Lamar on the field. 
    • Quinshon Judkins – Hard for me to leave him off against a Jets defense that lost their two best players. Judkins has a very clear path to ceiling, but I will probably get most of my exposure to him on Fanduel.
    • TreVeyon Henderson – Henderson logged a 75% snap share last week and should get the chance to do the same this week against the Bucs pass funnel defense that theoretically could play to his skill set (outside runs and screens/short passes). Similar to Judkins, his salary is much better on Fanduel.
    Tight End ::
    • George Kittle – We saw last week from Brock Bowers how a tight end with an elite skill set and talent can completely change a slate. Kittle is fully healthy but hasn’t been featured in the passing game since his return. I think this week that changes and he has slate-breaking potential.
    • Hunter Henry – I know I won’t be alone here, and that is alright. Henry is only $3,500 and scored 29 DK points in a game earlier this year. The Bucs are a pass funnel matchup that should result in elevated pass attempts.
    • David Njoku – This one is specifically appealing if Harold Fannin Jr. is unable to play, but I think Njoku is talented and cheap enough to make sense either way.
    • Colston Loveland – Cole Kmet should be back, but the genie is out of the bottle. I don’t think you can take this guy off the field after what he did last week.
    Defense :: 
    • Lions – Detroit’s aggressive defense should get to tee off on a depleted Commanders offense and have plenty of opportunities to force mistakes.
    • Panthers – The Carolina defense has actually been very solid this season with a couple of exceptions where strong offenses got the best of them. At home against a reeling Saints team is a spot where I like their chances.
    • Browns – Cleveland is an elite defense from a talent perspective and should be playing from a positive game script as they are likely to be able to score points against the barren Jets defense. Justin Fields takes a ton of sacks and Myles Garrett is on the other side of this one.
    • Cardinals – If looking to spend down on a defense, Arizona is my preferred option. They are playing well and the matchup with Seattle is not as bad as it first appears. 

    Premium Passing Game Stacks

    new england patriots (tb)

    The Patriots passing game has been elite this season as Drake Maye ascends into the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the league. This week, they face a Bucs defense that has been a pass funnel for quite a while and the Patriots will be without RB Rhamondre Stevenson. That leaves explosive rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson as their lead back. Henderson is more of a space back and his skill set, along with the matchup, could lead to an extreme pass rate for the Patriots with all of their skill players at modest salaries. WR Kayshon Boutte is also going to miss this game, which should condense a receiving corps that has been difficult to predict this season.

    detroit lions (was)

    The Lions offense could be in the perfect storm, facing a depleted defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed (above only the Bears and Bengals). The Lions offense ranks 8th in yards per play this season, but in the three games they played against below-average defenses (CHI, BAL, CIN), they average 7.1 yards per play. This is significantly more than the #1 team in the league (IND at 6.3).  Detroit is coming off an ugly loss to the Vikings and is facing the team that ended last season for them. If the Lions get out ahead in this one, the gloves will come off. Jared Goff needs to get back on track and the matchup here is pristine. The Commanders have only managed 52 plays per game in Marcus Mariota’s three starts, while their opponents have averaged 65 plays in those games. Detroit only averages 60.8 plays per game. This situation sets up as a spot where the Lions are likely to run more plays than normal, while operating at a level in the realm of “best offense in the league” in terms of per-play efficiency. The math adds up to: Lions smash.

    GPP Game Stack Of The Week

    los angeles rams // san francisco 49ers

    The Rams averaged 7.1 yards per play the first time they faced the 49ers and that was when all-pro linebacker Fred Warner was in the lineup. The 49ers defense has acquitted itself well over the last three games, but the Rams are in a different stratosphere offensively than those opponents. I expect another game where the Rams move the ball extremely well and they are talented and disciplined enough that I would think they will be better in the red zone and avoid the mistakes that hurt them last time. The 49ers on the other side of this, should also have success, and they have the most dependable asset in fantasy football (CMC) along with a bunch of cheap options with bankable roles. I expect added volume for the 49ers, and a lack of volume is usually what hurts their outlook as a group. Everything lines up for large game stacks around this spot to give us a direct path to a big score.

    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

    Ceiling Over Comfort

    Be wary of the typical stars-and-scrubs builds this week. Pricing isn’t soft, but the best value actually lies with the expensive players on a point-per-dollar basis. We’d be foolish to avoid the studs, but we’ll need to get creative along the way—avoiding those multiple punt plays that look fine from a median standpoint yet too thin to help you leapfrog the field. This feels like a week where one low-owned player hitting 4x while the chalk lands at 3.8x might be the difference between first place and a boring 64th.

    A yellow caution sign with black text

Description automatically generated

    Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

    *Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

    Secondary Core-Relations

    Dalton Kincaid ($4,300, 6.3%) / Jaylen Waddle ($6,400, 7.3%) / De’Von Achane ($7,400, 30.3%)

    Kincaid might not be on the field that much, but you don’t get fantasy points for participation anyway. He’s dropped 4x scores in nearly half his games, and Buffalo’s offense only steps on the gas when forced. The field will jam Achane at 30%, and yeah—his usage is absurd—but Waddle brings that same “blink and it’s 60 yards” energy from a lower-owned angle. This combo offsets the chalk while still betting on the fireworks. Layer this “substack” into builds using cheaper quarterbacks, where Kincaid can get there while your 5k QB outscores Allen on a point-per-dollar basis.


    Jameson Williams ($4,900, 8.1%) / Jaylin Noel ($3,600, 2.3%)

    Dipping into the highest game total for some low-owned correlation is a sensical approach. Yardage shall be gained. Touchdowns will be scored. Variance is a thing. Take the road less traveled.

    LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

    Running Back

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    Papy’s Process

    Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

    Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the tenth slate.

    Picking Games

    Week 10 has four games that pique my interest:

    • Bills @ Dolphins (50.5)
    • Ravens @ Vikings (49)
    • Giants @ Bears (47)
    • Rams @ 49ers (49.5)

    I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

    Bills @ Dolphins (50.5)

    There is a blowout risk here, but other than that, this is an excellent game environment. Josh Allen is at his cheapest price of the season, after his second-best fantasy game of the year, facing the Dolphins defense. Did DK try and make it easier? The Bills are going to score, and the only risk of this game not blowing up is if the Dolphins can’t keep up. There is a chance they don’t fight back, but they’re at home, and the Bills defense is banged up. They looked slow last week, and that’s not a great way to contain De’Von Achane. It’s easy to pair Allen with his pass catchers since all of them are cheap, and the Dolphins concentrated offense makes for a few obvious bring-backs. It’s not hard to stack this game, and it could break the slate. I’m not going to overthink using Allen in my main lineup. Allen + Shakir + Achane is currently my favorite way to build this game.

    Ravens @ Vikings (49)

    I’m higher on this game than the field. The entire Ravens offense is underpriced for the return of Lamar Jackson. The Vikings defense hasn’t looked as strong this season (15th in total DVOA). Jackson is matchup-proof anyway, and it doesn’t hurt that this game will be played inside. J.J. McCarthy looked like he could play last week, and if the Vikings can keep it close, there is a good chance this game takes off. It’s easily stackable from both sides, and both offenses are concentrated enough that it doesn’t take much guesswork to pick the strongest plays. I think this game could surprise with relatively moderate ownership. McCarthy + Jefferson  + Addison + Andrews is how I’m likely to attack this game.

    Giants @ Bears (47)

    Both teams are regularly creating game environments to target, so when they play one another, we want to pay attention. The Giants are all cheap relatively to their upside, but it’s the Bears who are more likely to put up slate breaking numbers. Rome Odunze was a sacrificial lamb last week, and his father complained about his usage. Rome said all the right things, and the Bears talked about the work he put in as a blocker. I see this as a smash spot for Odunze where the coaching staff feeds him 10-plus targets. His projected ownership is going to be under 5% and he’ll probably be one of my flag plants this week. It doesn’t hurt that DK reduced his price $600 after his dud. I’m going to stack this game from both sides. Caleb + Odunze + Loveland + Slayton is how I’m looking to play this game.

    Rams @ 49ers (49.5)

    These offenses are both concentrated enough that their games are weekly targets. This game is the best combination of a high total and close spread on the slate. Those two factors should have our radars up for DFS, and this game offers the two premier plays on the slate in Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua. It’s not impossible to play them together, which would write the narrative that this game explodes. It’s difficult to build lineups that look right without at least one of them, and this game is stackable from either side. I’m not sure which direction I’ll go yet, but I’m going to have one of my tighter builds dedicated to this game. Stafford + Puca + Kyren + CMC is my favorite way to go about this game, but you must get very creative on the rest of your roster to afford that combination.

    Key Values

    J.J. McCarthy ($4,900)

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    Week 10 Only*

    The Oracle

    The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 10 Topics

    1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

    2. Wildin’ Out

    3. Value Plays

    4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

    The Question ::

    A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    I’ve hit on this throughout the week, but this is a week with some solid game environments, some solid totals…and yet, seemingly very few pathways to full-on eruption rosters in DFS.

    We’ll skip over game environments for the moment, but one of the clearest pathways to eruptions outside of game environments is for popular individual pieces to hit for a big game. But this week — outside of Rico Dowdle — it’s hard to see clear pathways to popular individual pieces putting up price-considered games you “had to have.”

    There are three running backs expected to garner 30% or higher ownership (and these are the only three currently projected above 13%). One of them is Dowdle. The other two are CMC (likely to have a strong game, but highly unlikely to bury you at $9k) and Achane (only three games in his last 18 that have gone for more than 21 DK points, which illustrates just how unlikely he is to bury you; yes, he can — but again: it’s just not likely).

    At wide receiver, we have JSN and Puka highly likely to score 20+, but unlikely to bury you. Amon-Ra St. Brown can put up 40 if this is “one of those games” for the Lions; but if it’s not “one of those games,” he’s usually scoring around 20. And then, of course, the other popular wideouts are guys like Zay Flowers, Deebo Samuel, Khalil Shakir, etc., who have very narrow pathways to blowup games.

    Swinging over to game environments, we have spots like Pats // Bucs and Rams // 49ers that we, as optimistic DFS players, can paint a picture of becoming shootouts…but if we zoom out and look at things more objectively, we realize that while a shootout is possible in those spots, it’s unlikely.

    Maybe Giants // Bears takes off in bad weather.

    Maybe Ravens // Vikings takes off.

    And again: maybe the Lions just stomp here.

    But also, maybe none of these game environments take off…and maybe none of these popular pieces erupt. And maybe we end up with a relatively low-scoring week as a result.

    Xandamere >>

    If you’ve been reading JM’s notes in Discord I think he sums it up well. There is a LOT of really fragile chalk this week! At running back our 3 highest owned plays are CMC (high price, awful matchup), De’Von Achane (bad offense, has only really put up 1 tourney-worthy score this season), and Rico Dowdle (awesome, but, on the Panthers). At wide receiver the highest owned plays are Zay Flowers (Ravens spread the ball out a ton, only 1 performance all year of 15+ DK points), JSN (elite but pricey and only 2 games of 30+ points all year due – volume concerns in this one), Wan’dale Robinson (he’s a Giant), Khalil Shakir (he’s a Bill)…these guys aren’t bad plays by any means, but they’re just very, very fragile as highly owned plays.

    Hilow >>

    The Week 10 main slate is riddled with fragility, maybe more so than any slate we’ve seen this season, which is an interesting conclusion considering seven of the 10 games on the slate carry a game total of 46.5 points or higher. Pricing is also ruthlessly tight, with very little in the way of projectable value. That makes building rosters uncomfortable, which is something I absolutely love. Being comfortable being uncomfortable becomes an elite trait on a slate like this one and I urge you to consider that when constructing your portfolio in Week 10. 

    Mike >>

    I somewhat disagree with my peers listed above here, as I don’t necessarily see the same fragility in the chalk that they reference. Every slate starts at the running back position for me, and I think CMC and Dowdle are anything but fragile (barring injury, but injury is something you can say for any NFL player). The issue this week as I see it isn’t as much about the “chalk” being fragile, but there being a large group of players and game environments that for one reason or another do not project that well but have clear paths to outlier high end production. Derrick Henry is a road favorite with Lamar on the field. The Lions are big favorites and it won’t be shocking if they score five or six touchdowns. Tampa and New England are tough to project individual plays strongly, but have clear paths to excessive play volume and scoring. The unique thing about this week to me isn’t that the popular spots are likely to fail, but rather that there are a lot of strong spots that it wouldn’t be shocking to have outlier scores from.


    2. Wildin’ Out

    The Question ::

    The Week 9 slate showed us how valuable a single game environment can be. We had Brock Bowers and Drake London both put up 40+ Draftkings points, but I saw tournament winning lineups that had only one of them. However, the Bears-Bengals game was an instant classic and every winning lineup had multiple pieces from that game, while most were built heavily around it. With that in mind, what game environment stands out to you on this week’s slate as most likely to turn into a wild shootout?

    The Answers ::

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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    Anytime we go through droughts, the natural thing to do is to overcorrect. We’re all aware that the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over and expecting different results. Therefore, when things aren’t seeming to be landing properly, we overcorrect as a natural tendency. This season, I’ve done that with this article. Willing to Lose hatched five seasons ago on this very website from the concept that we can beat 150-max tournament players with just a few entries. The goal was (and is) to build in an overlooked stack every week, an overlooked player or three, which is pieced together to give the foundation of an article that can reflect truly unique thinking. The limited entries piece of this idea is key. Over time, I stopped winning with the narrow approach of this article. Some of this was due to variance, some due to my own lack of evolution, and some due to my unwillingness to risk a lot on any given slate.

    Whatever the reason(s), this season I’ve started to hone in on more than one stack in this very space every week. Here are two to three to leverage and why. I always like how this article looks when published, but in hindsight, I am realizing that I’ve been straying away from my “roots” and the very foundation of WTL. The next few weeks, I’ll be writing about a core strategy to kick-start lineups and provide the jumping-off point for the rest of the build. The natural thing to do here is to recommend more, because the more I recommend, the more likely I am to get it right. So, in natural form, my brain is telling me to reduce here. Let’s reduce to simplify, and put ourselves even more on an island with those brave enough to follow!

    Ravens // Vikings Overstack without Lamar

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    Week 10 Only*

    Afternoon-Only

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

    Finding An Edge

    The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

    Ownership Strategy
    • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
    • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
    • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
    • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

    Week 10 Overview

    This is only a three game slate, but man does it profile as a fun one. All three games have high profile players and spots where we could see tons of scoring. The three highest priced wide receivers on the main slate all play within this three game window, while three of the six highest projected running backs are also available. Bringing it all home, the three highest priced tight ends on the main slate are available within the late window. This creates a situation where decisions must be made, and there will be more ways to be unique than we usually get on such a small slate. Another angle to consider here is the fact that with all of these games having such good outlooks and the main slate only being ten games, there is a reasonable chance that a lineup made entirely of players from the Afternoon Only slate will post a score that can win a main slate contest. This is a great way to naturally differentiate a lineup and condense your player pool, which is often a struggle.

    DISCORD

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    QB Strategy

    Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

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    Mike’s Player Grid (FD)

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    Quarterback ::
    • Drake Maye – This guy just keeps producing and this week, he gets a spot where he is likely going to have to do everything. All of his teammates are modestly priced.
    • Jared Goff – The Commanders embarrassed Goff and the Lions in last season’s playoffs, and this is their chance to avenge that loss. We like touchdowns and the Lions could have a lot of them here.
    • Jaxson Dart – Dart has 18+ fantasy points in every game this season despite only throwing for more than 202 yards once. This week, he gets a Bears defense allowing the most yards per play in the league.
    • Marcus Mariota – The salary is just too appealing not to consider when we look at his rushing upside and potentially elevated passing attempts in this matchup.
    Running Back::

    The way this week sets up, I will likely be playing three running backs on every roster on Fanduel. For that reason, my RB player pool is a bit larger this week, with specific ways I will use certain players.

    • Rico Dowdle – Elite matchup and game script as the Panthers are likely to be able to impose their will on the Saints. The backfield is officially his now, and it is hard to argue with 30+ points in all three of his starts.
    • Quinshon Judkins – Facing a Jets defense that lost its two best players. They will still be giving maximum effort to win, but their talent level is getting very low. Judkins has a very clear path to ceiling and the game script seems to be in his favor.
    • TreVeyon Henderson – Henderson logged a 75% snap share last week and should get the chance to do the same this week against the Bucs pass funnel defense that theoretically could play to his skill set (outside runs and screens/short passes). 

    • With Conditions::
      • James Cook – Smashed the Dolphins the first time and set up for another solid game. Somewhat worried about the workload, will require Achane or Waddle on any Cook roster.
      • DET RBs – The Lions are probably going to score a ton of points here and their running backs are very involved. There aren’t many cheap options at the position, so Montgomery at $6,100 can really open things up. Meanwhile, Gibbs is priced closer to several RBs on Fanduel than he is on Draftkings, which actually makes him a little more accessible.
      • Derrick Henry – Henry has looked much better in recent weeks, and last week, Baltimore went pass-heavy near the goal line, resulting in no touchdowns for the “King”. That could even out this week in a game where Baltimore is projected for nearly four touchdowns. Probably won’t have much of him, but the lineups that do utilize him will also include Baltimore defense OR JJ McCarthy plus a pass catcher (a Henry explosion game will mean the Ravens are smashing and/or the Vikings are opening it up).
      • Kyren Williams – Elite game environment and modest price tag. Smashed the 49ers the first time around and no Fred Warner this time. Will require a 49ers pass catcher on any Kyren roster.
      • Christian McCaffrey – CMC is always a great “in a vacuum” option, but the salary this week is getting a little tougher to stomach in the half-PPR scoring. CMC can and still will probably have a very good game, but whether paying up for him makes sense will likely depend on how the other RBs on the slate do. There is a strong group of RBs in the $7k to $9.2k range and if 3 or 4 of them can score around 25 Fanduel points then paying up for CMC and his likely 25 to 30 points will prove sub-optimal. Including him here for context.
      • De’Von Achane – The matchup is terrific here and Achane’s ability as both a runner and receiver should be heavily utilized as the Dolphins work to keep pace with the Bills. Will use him on rosters with one of Josh Allen or James Cook.
      • Bears RB – D’Andre Swift is apparently back healthy after a full practice on Thursday, but a personal issue puts his status for Sunday in question now. The Giants run defense has been awful in recent weeks and the Bears running game has been dominant since their Week 5 bye. This article is posted on Friday evening, so we will have to wait to see how things play out. I fully expect the Bears backfield to produce a lot of points in this matchup, which means Monangai would be a smash play once again if Swift misses while both Monangai and Swift would be elite GPP options if he plays.
    Wide Receiver ::

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    Fanduel Leverage (FD)

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

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    Building A Winner (FD)

    Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

    This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

    As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

    Starting Point

    • The Week 10 main slate includes 10 total games, with four teams on bye and an early morning Falcons vs Colts game in Germany. There will be seven early kickoffs and three games in the late afternoon. This week isn’t getting the “byemageddon” hype that Week 8 did (six teams on bye), but the combination of four teams off and some regularly-key players and teams playing in primetime makes this one of the most unique slates of the year for me. The starting point for my SE/3-Max FD lineups this week has as much to do with what is not on the main slate as it does with the players and teams that are. A few key points to consider:
      • The teams on bye this week include the Bengals, Cowboys, and Titans, the three teams that have allowed the most raw points in the league this year, and three of the most exploitable defenses to target each week for DFS.
      • RB options NOT on this slate include Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Ashton Jeanty, and Javonte Williams; six players with among the best RB roles in the league this year.
      • WR options NOT on the main slate include: Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Rashee Rice. Not to mention Drake London, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, both stud Philly WRs, all three usable LAC WRs, etc., the list could go on.
    • The combination of fewer (obviously) exploitable defenses to target and the absence of some of fantasy’s biggest stars this week seems likely to lead to a “barbell” ownership distribution where ownership concentrates on the top/most expensive remaining options and a handful of comfortable value options that fit alongside the high-priced stars. I’m not here to fade all of the best plays, but there will be ample opportunity to find mid-priced options you like who will be very modestly owned this week relative to their weekly FD upside.

    Running Back Approach

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    Week 10 Only*