Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!

“Try not to care so much about what other people think of you.”

I’ve heard this before. You’ve heard this before. We’ve all told this to someone around us. It’s a saying many can preach and few can achieve. Such a weird dynamic for such a short statement. If you struggle to practice this, it’s a great goal to work towards. Take it too far, though, and you’re either incredibly disciplined or maybe a bit unhinged. There’s no in between.

Like most profound statements, this has applicability in many aspects of life. The less you care about what others say, do, or think, the more you focus on what you say, do, or think. In competition of any kind, this becomes more important. I saw a great post this week that resurfaced a picture of Michael Phelps at the 2016 Olympics as he was about to win a gold medal. The swimmer to his right, Chad le Clos, was a few milliseconds behind him in second place staring at Phelps, while Phelps was solely focused on the line ahead of him, to win the gold. Winners focus on the tasks in their lane, right in front of them, while others who are trying to compete are more concerned with those around them. In other words, winners tend to care less what other people think.

I’ve been playing DFS long enough to tell you that in a strange way, this saying also applies to competing in tournaments because you can’t build and submit lineups if you are worried about how they would be reviewed in hindsight. These contests and sites have been up long enough now that there is a “blueprint” for how to win. In the NFL it’s stacking for correlations, targeting the high game totals, finding the plays the optimizers are projecting out, and so on. We all feel compelled to follow the blueprint, because we all care about what others think of us.

What if we say forget the blueprint? There are no hard and fast rules with how professional sports will play out. It’s Week 8, and it feels like the last three to four weeks have featured much of the “chalk” performing well, while most off-the-board contrarian plays flopped. As much as I am convinced this trend could continue, what if Week 8 is the one where we flip it on its head? Who knew the Broncos could put up 33 points in one quarter last week against the Giants? Who knew the Giants with Russ Wilson could drop 28 in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Cowboys in Week 2? Who knew Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers could still duel in 2025 like they did in 2015?

There will always be some outliers in any projections, but it does feel like recently the outcomes have been conforming more to the norms. In prepping for this week’s note, I couldn’t help but think that this could be the week where we build lineups that ignore the typical DFS builds. Everything in moderation, of course, but as you’re building this week, consider the road less traveled, because the best time to do it is when it’s an unexpected course.

Week 8 :: Working Backwards

With the NFL Europe taking a break, but six teams on byes and your standard Monday Night Football island game, we are left with the now common 10-game main slate. Off-the-slate teams include the Chargers, Vikings, fightin’ Dan Campbells (Gibbs, wow!), limpin’ Pete Carrolls, Jags, Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals. We also don’t have America’s Team, the Kansas City Chiefs (everybody loves them still, right?), Jayden Daniels (injured) and Washington, nor do we have to navigate the revenge of Rodgers facing the Packers.

What we do have are three “late” afternoon games that feature one of our favorite offenses (Colts, Bucs) and/or the primary game stack of the week in Dallas // Denver. Backing up to the 1pm games, we should start analysis this week with the late slate and work backwards since the Colts’ 30+ point total / how will you use Jonathan Taylor at his salary, Emeka Egbuka or no Egbuka, and if / how Cowboys and Broncos seem to be the favorites for fulcrums of the slate.

Dallas can score on any field these days, and it’s likely we get Pat Surtain on CeeDee Lamb so what’s the move? Denver’s offense never got going in London against the Jets and then took three quarters to get the engines revving against the Giants at home last week. Should we expect anything different this week against a beatable Dallas defense?

There is no reason to believe the Colts offense slows down this week hosting the Titans, especially with a 30.5 point expected total. Taylor’s pricing on all sites is egregious but warranted, so the question becomes how do you play him, and if you do or don’t, can you get Colts exposure by being different? Their defense was exploited in both trips to LA this season (Rams, Chargers) so we know Cam Ward could suddenly burst here, but likely without Calvin Ridley and still under an interim coach, he’s not jumping off the page.

Similarly, the Bucs and New Orleans matchup where we have two teams that want to play with pace and the Saints at home with an implied point total over three touchdowns seems surprising. Tampa, of course, is decimated with injuries, which are pointing toward Egbuka again, while Tez Johnson now also has the attention of America after his Monday Night Football performance. Tampa seems to be a team always ready for a shootout, but can New Orleans dictate the pace and score points to push this game?

Meanwhile, in the early window…

As far as implied totals are concerned, the seven early games don’t feature obvious game stacks, but we do have five teams above 25 points: Ravens (27.5), Bills (26.5), Falcons (26), Bengals (25.5), and Eagles (25.5). Baltimore may have Lamar back, Josh Allen is off a bye and his worst performance of the season, Bijan Robinson gets his best on-paper matchup with a hobbled quarterback (Penix) or the possibility of Kirk Cousins. All the while, the Bengals host the Jets and the Eagles look for revenge against the Giants. Oh, the narratives!

Totals aren’t everything, but digging into these teams we can see the potential, and if you think Jaxson Dart can continue his run of propping up the Giants offense (at Eagles) or Chicago can go into Baltimore and push their weight around, or Carolina truly is a better team at home and Buffalo’s defense still can’t stop the run…then you may dive into one of these game environments head first.

But beyond the obvious here, there are so many more spots to explore. Like how Christian McCaffrey may join the expensive RB party with a tougher matchup against Houston, or how the Browns would use Quinshon Judkins after his three-touchdown game last week in a game they are not expected to compete in over at Foxboro? What about the Flacco revenge game on the Jets? (Not a thing.)

The site will be ripe with content this week, the props teams and Bink Machines are grinding hard at profit (NFL and NBA!), and we’re about to round into mid-season form.

May Week 8 be your best one yet! We’ll see you in the Binks Channel on Discord come Sunday evening!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

WEDNESDAY, OCT. 22 THOUGHTS ::

EARLY WEEK 8 ANGLES ::

JOSH ALLEN // PANTHERS BRING-BACK ::

First thought: if you play josh allen, you are required to play a piece from the panthers (tmac being the best bet). the only way allen is unleashed is if the opponent is putting up points. and especially against a carolina defense that forces tons of short-area throws, a josh allen takeover is going to need cooperation from the game environment.

LAMAR // HENRY // BEARS D ::

the chicago defense is quickly improving, but lamar (if he plays) and henry (especially if lamar plays) are outrageously cheap. henry, of course, has far more paths to failure.

THOUGHTS ON TITANS OFFENSE UNDER INTERIM HC ::

mike mccoy brought fresh creativity to the titans offense, but ran out of steam/ideas after about a quarter and a half. i wonder if this is something that will continue building (what if mike mccoy has quietly been building himself back up as a viable offensive mind?), or if we’ve already seen mccoy shoot his shot.

realistically, the titans still have enough problems even if this offense is suddenly far more creative that it still probably won’t all come together without warning. in other words, the risk of missing out on a big game is low, and we probably have a few more weeks of watching and gathering information before potentially reaching a point in time where it makes sense to pull the trigger. but for large-field play, at least, these are questions worth asking.

WEEK 8 QBs ::

it’s a wild week in the mid-range of qb.

bo nix v dallas
caleb v a still-banged-up baltimore
jaxson dart v anyone

not to mention flacco with weapons, penix v miami with weapons, and even dalton capable of throwing for 300-3 (albeit unlikely) vs buffalo

while all those guys are volatile, all have 30-pointers within their range of outcomes on this slate as well

even with lamar so cheap, qb looks pretty wide-open

THOUGHTS ON WEEK 8 RBs, ZAY FLOWERS ::

i don’t know if there will be a viable way to do it, but on probably about 1% of slates, we get an outcome where playing two of cmc // jt // bijan together would prove slate-breaking (both guys scoring, say, 38+). basically, “what is their 90th percentile outcome, and what are the chances of them doing that together?). just something fun to look for viable ways of doing this week.

POSSIBLE WEEK 8 CHALK BUILD ::

affordable qb
cheap te
~5k to ~6k wideouts
a couple cost-conscious rbs ($7k and below)
one high-end to elite piece

that seems to be the early favorite for “chalk build,” based on early opto builds

BIJAN // LONDON // PENIX VS. MIAMI D THOUGHTS ::

Here’s some wacky correlation ::

across his last seven games, bijan has topped 27.4 DK points three times :: 38.8 // 31.1 // 34.3.

drake london’s scores in those games? :: 34.8 // 28.0 // 43.7.

that’s combined scores of 73.6 // 59.1 // 78.0 — in three of seven games — for $15.2k. playing miami this week, where 1) the defense is soft, and 2) there is an outside shot at both offenses doing well here and the scoring taking off.

total points in those games above were 38 // 61 // 82 — so we’ve seen that it can happen without a shootout…though a shootout would obviously help.

adding penix ($20.1k in total salary) also works, of course, with scores of 88.2 // 81.8 // 107.0.

all three of theses guys will be popular this week, but bijan + london with no penix will surely be unique, while the full trio will be underowned relative to expectations. these three + one or two pieces from the dolphins is also sure to go underowned. either home stadium would work here, but this game being played in the dome gives it even more juice. the atlanta defense has been good…but what if the miami offense can get things going indoors? before running into the weather and the browns, they had scored 27 (chargers), 24 (panthers), 27 (jets), 21 (bills), 27 (pats), 8 (colts). something like a 27-34 game wouldn’t look strange or out of place at the end of the day on sunday.

worth noting :: in the three games in which bijan/london smashed, mooney got hurt in one and missed the other two. given his role in the offense, this feels at least a little bit coincidental…but it’s also a glaring data point to consider.

WEEK 7 BETTING RECAP ::

A little betting recap ::

In Week 7, we lost Falcons +3.5 at San Francisco (I took the bet after Fred Warner was hurt, and got in before the move to +2.5 that came after the Falcons beat the Bills; taking the bet early, however, meant I didn’t have the news of Kittle returning, which dramatically improves the 49ers rushing attack and probably would have kept me away from the bet).

That was the only loss we had in here.

In Week 7, we booked wins on:

Colts +1.5 at Chargers

Cowboys // Commanders over 54.5 (two units)

Cardinals +7 vs Green Bay

Patriots -6 at Tennessee (four units)

Panthers +2.5 at Jets

Seahawks -2.5 v Texans

A full-unit parlay of Seahawks -2.5 + Patriots to win

As mentioned previously, I’ve been betting one unit regardless of the odds (so rather than “betting to win one unit,” I simply bet one unit). By that accounting/math, at the odds/lines where these bets were taken, Week 7 returned 9.6 units (pretty wild), with +13.4 units on the year so far (roughly three weeks of action; I was down about one unit through Week 4 from three different early-season parlays; all other bets have been tracked in here).

ROI on the year is 50.09% — which is quite literally impossible, even if we have edge here. But even with that unsustainably high rate, I do continue to think there’s a good chance we have some level of edge, due to A) the lens through which I watch games and assess teams, and B) the fact that I don’t try to pick all games, but instead only attack high-confidence spots.

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

WEEK 8 BETTING OVERVIEW ::

On that note (only attacking high-confidence spots), we don’t have much for Week 8.

Last week, I dropped a three-leg parlay that was -105 at the time :: Bills to beat the Panthers // Falcons to beat the Dolphins // Colts to beat the Titans.

I have since added a half unit on the Cowboys to beat the Broncos at +142. (Dallas is essentially 2024 Cincy, but with a higher floor on defense. The Broncos have a tremendous defense, but a wildly inconsistent offense. I think this game is closer to 50/50, so +142 is nice odds.)

That’s all I have for this week.

WEEK 9 EARLY BETS ::

Early bets for Week 9 ::

Panthers +10.5 at the Packers. The Packers’ offense is mostly “run the ball and throw downfield.” The Panthers have a good run defense, and teams usually elect to take underneath throws against their defense, so it’s not a great blend of matchup for Green Bay. On top of that, Green Bay has had a hard time pulling away from teams (this is now the third time I’ve taken the underdog against the spread vs Green Bay — after wins vs the spread with the Bengals and Cardinals). This becomes even better if it’s still Dalton under center instead of Bryce Young (though the Panthers would have a better shot at outright winning if Young were healthy by next week, as Young has a lower floor but a higher ceiling), but either way, I like this bet.

Broncos -1.5 at Houston. The Texans’ defense is so good, which makes any bet against this team a bit scary (see our Seahawks -2.5 last week, where Seattle was clearly the better team, but where this game was still close due to four turnovers forced by the Texans), but in terms “if an offense is playing against a good defense, who is the worst offense in football?” my answer would be the Texans. What I mean by that is: the Texans aren’t broken like the Raiders or the Titans, but what makes them “bad” is so consistently exposed against good defenses that they become the worst offense in the league when playing tough defensive competition. Unless they fix a lot within the next couple weeks, -1.5 is too small for the Broncos here.

Finally, as hot as we are in here at the moment, keep in mind that all betting should be done with a mindset of, “Am I genuinely okay losing this money?”

I’ve never heard of someone finishing a season with 50% ROI in betting, so we should obviously/absolutely expect a cool-off. I think we can continue to remain profitable through the year, but if we do, it will likely be small margins, and that should be our mindset here.

EARLY BINK MACHINE RUNS // THOUGHTS ::

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

The Week 8 main slate has the highest median game total so far this season, but (yeah, there’s a “but”) seven of the 10 games carry a spread of 6.5 points or higher – all the way up to the Colts with a ridiculous 14.5-point spread. Even so, we should expect more points to be scored in Week 8, which means we should expect higher scores in DFS, which means we should expect a higher score required to win GPPs. This is the single most important aspect of this slate. We absolutely must be targeting a higher ceiling than on other slates this season. Here’s where the tricky part comes in – salary is tight on DraftKings, with no clear projectable value (if you call the Tennessee receivers projectable value, I will disown you). So, we want to play the Jonathan Taylors and Bijan Robinsons and Ja’Marr Chases, the players that carry those top tier ceilings, but it becomes more difficult to do so on this slate.

The first question we need to ask ourselves on a slate like this is where the value is likeliest to come from. After that, we can begin to piece together how the field is likeliest to approach value before diagnosing where the best leverage stances are to take, and if we can flip the script, so to speak, on that value. Come with me as we explore the theoretical aspects of the Week 8 NFL DFS main slate!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best wide receiver in the league is coming off a career-high 23-target game, against a Jets team without Sauce Gardner. Can’t really poke many holes in that.

DERRICK HENRY

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Home favorite running back for a team with a 28.25 Vegas implied team total. Can’t really poke many holes in that.

DEVONTA SMITH

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. A.J. Brown missed two games in 2024, during which time Smith saw 20 targets and held a 0.31 TPRR, 29.4% target rate, and 2.42 YPRR, while averaging 17.8 FP/G (on 19.3 XFP/G). Checks out. He also gets the pleasure of running routes against a secondary playing man coverage at the third highest rate, which will also be without two starters in the secondary.

BIJAN ROBINSON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The most explosive running back in the league against a team allowing 5.2 yards per carry and the second highest explosive run rate. Checks out.

RACHAAD WHITE

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Ew. White has a 1.6% explosive run rate on a 3.94 yards per carry mark. No, baby, what are you doin’?

ZAY FLOWERS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I understand Zay Flowers is the likeliest player to generate explosives through the air for the Ravens. He also has only two red zone targets, one end zone target, and a low 0.089 1D/RR this season. That has left him with a modest 13.2 XFP/G, which ranks 31^st in the league at the wide receiver position. This play is entirely fragile.

DALLAS GOEDERT

EXPANSIVE CHALK. During the two-game span where Brown missed in 2024, Goedert saw 15 targets and amassed 208 yards through the air on a 0.21 TPRR, 22.1% target rate, and 2.93 YPRR, while averaging 16.9 FP/G. He leads the team in touchdowns this season. Checks out.

JONATHAN TAYLOR

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The back ranked second in fantasy points per game, playing for a team with the largest spread as home favorites, with the highest Vegas implied team total on the slate. Checks out.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.3K

Lamar Jackson
Derrick Henry
D’Andre Swift
Rashod Bateman
Marvin Mims
Rome Odunze
Mark Andrews
Dalton Schultz
Colts

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Ravens

There’s a lot I want to get to here, but let’s start with this ::

This week is full of uncertainty, but the highest-certainty bets I feel we can make this week are:

• Falcons doing well on offense (but with question marks as to what this means for fantasy production, at cost)
• Eagles doing well on offense (and someone from the Eagles’ trio of healthy stars in Saquon // DeVonta // Goedert hitting for a nice-to-elite game)
• Colts scoring points (but with question marks as to what this means for fantasy production, at cost)
• Bengals throwing the ball (but with questions regarding how this shakes out in actual production)
• Ravens doing well on offense (with far fewer questions or caveats than we have in other spots)

In all three games that Lamar played start-to-finish this year, the Ravens scored 30+. After a slow start to last season through the first three games, the Ravens also scored 30+ in 11/14 to close out 2024 (with the games below 30 coming against the tough defenses of the Browns, Steelers, and Eagles). It will be a surprise if the Ravens fail to produce on offense here; and on a week with lots of uncertainty, that’s worth quite a bit.

Lamar Jackson has scored 26+ DK points in 50% of his regular season games since the start of last year, and Derrick Henry has scored 27.5+ in 40% of games that Lamar has started and finished since the start of last year. Again: one of the highest-certainty bets on this “full of uncertainty” slate is that the Ravens will score points, with Lamar and Henry being the likeliest beneficiaries. I’m genuinely playing around with the idea of using something like 80% Lamar, and of using Ravens on 100% of rosters.

Some additional numbers I want to hit on from the Journal this week ::

Obviously, if rostering Lamar, we’re hoping for more than 26 DK points; but given the shape of this week, 26+ might be a fine cutoff point to think about. With that in mind…

Lamar has gone for 26+ 10 times since the start of last year (half his full games).

In four of those games, Derrick Henry went for 27+ DK points (though Henry also posted quite a few absolute duds in such games; basically, Lamar + Henry is highly viable, but it can also go horribly wrong).

Zay Flowers topped 15 DK points in only two of those outings (with only one elite game, and with a whole pile of duds). Flowers can obviously hit alongside Lamar, but this seems likely to be a very popular stack this week, and it hasn’t typically been the best way to capture the upside of Lamar over the last couple years.

Mark Andrews has gone for 14.8 or more in four of these games (with three of those four being games of 18.8 or higher).

Isaiah Likely has gone for 16+ in two of these games (though of course, he has posted absolute duds in almost all the others).

Because of his touchdown-scoring ability (and the correlation between touchdowns and Lamar’s bigger games), Rashod Bateman has gone for 15.8+ in five of these games (including two of 22+).

Ideal structures for Lamar builds (starting from the most recent) would have been ::

Lamar naked (two touchdowns for Devontez Walker on two catches; one apiece for DeAndre Hopkins and Tylan Wallace; since none of those would be +EV guessing games outside the Milly Maker, the way to have played it, realistically, was Lamar naked)

Lamar + Henry + Flowers

Lamar + Bateman + Andrews

Lamar + Henry + Andrews

Lamar + Bateman (+ Justice Hill — but who would have done that?)

Lamar + Bateman + Andrews

Lamar + Henry + Bateman + Andrews

Lamar + Flowers + Bateman + Likely

Lamar + Henry

Lamar + Likely

Lamar + Bateman + Andrews showed up three times in Lamar’s last 20 games (15%), with Henry in the mix on one of those (a 41-31 game against the Bucs — i.e., if you’re overstacking like this, you want to bet on a shootout, with pieces from the Bears included).

Lamar + Henry included an additional piece in three of four.

In the pair of games in which it made sense to pair Flowers with Lamar, another piece from the Ravens should have been included as well (Henry once, Bateman and Likely another).

Lamar feels like one of the higher-confidence bets on the slate; and if I had to venture a guess, I would feel comfortable saying most of our competition will play him in sub-optimal ways.

How I’m Attacking The Week ::

A final note from my Journal before we get into the rest of the Grid:

Here’s a map to my current prescription for my builds this week ::

• Blend Eagles // Ravens offenses
  • Include some Bears with Ravens, and have some Bears stacks as well
• Bet on Bijan and JT
• Next tier down :: bet on passing volume from Bengals
• Next tier down :: small swings on passing attacks of Saints // Texans
  • Also, small to moderate swings on the Jets (if Tyrod under center)
    • Breece (fine with Fields as well)
    • Mason Taylor
    • Wideouts???
• Fill in around all this with ::
  • Panthers pass catchers
  • Broncos pass catchers
  • Cade Otton (with other Bucs viable as well)

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Fly off the Bye”

Lamar Jackson + Rashod Bateman + Mark Andrews

Story:

“What has happened 25% of the time happens here”

Why It Works:

In 25% of Ravens games since the start of last season (25%!!!), Lamar + Bateman + Andrews would have kept you on a 200-point pace (with a 240-point pace in 15%!).

Because Lamar’s big games often come with heavy passing touchdowns, and because Bateman and Andrews are two of this team’s primary targets in the red zone, there is plenty of room to the upside here, on a stack that most people will completely overlook.

How It Works:

Due to the touchdown reliance of this stack, it can miss HARD when it misses, putting your roster in position where you’re highly likely to finish out of the money. That’s not great. But at the same time, when this stack hits, it hits in such a way that your path to first place becomes pretty wide-open; and since we play tourneys in order to target first-place finishes (rather than playing tourneys to cash), this is a pretty fair trade-off to make this week.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“55.5%”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

No High-Priced RBs

As I’ve mentioned this year, I’ve been using the Bink Machine for Single-Entry/3-Max this season, rather than using it for MME; and as such, I’ve been building far fewer rules, and have instead been running lots of roster sets with different inputs in order to shop for ideas, and in order to run the Sims and see what’s popping as my highest-ROI approaches. But one angle I want to make sure I have “options to shop through” this week is “rosters that do not include any of the high-priced running backs.” I don’t know that I’ll necessarily force myself to include such rosters in my SE/3-Max set this week, but I do know that one of the most unique ways to be different this week will be to simply avoid the three highest-priced running backs. In order to give myself some rosters I can shop through that lean into this build, the following rule says, “On at least 20% of all rosters, include no high-priced running backs” (‘On at least 20% of all rosters, include zero players from this pool’).

$6.60/Week:

Just a reminder :: the Bink Machine is an outrageously useful tool for single-entry/3-Max. We intentionally keep the price tag on the Bink Machine cheap (as far as I know, it’s cheaper than any other optimizer out there) in order for our SE/3-Max users to feel like they can justify the cost. If you typically play playoff DFS, you’re basically paying $6.60 per Main Slate with a $99 Bink Machine pass. If you use it for a week and don’t find it to be useful, reach out to support and we’ll refund your money. Get in there to try it out if you can.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Lamar Jackson (probably with some Caleb Williams trail bets) || Jalen Hurts || Joe Flacco || possibly Bo Nix

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Bijan Robinson – The biggest concern for Bijan is the game environment might keep his usual high pass game involvement in check, while also putting him at risk of losing playing time in the second half. The matchup can’t be any better, though.
• Jonathan Taylor – He’s got a fever, and the only prescription is more touchdowns.
• Christian McCaffrey – CMC has 22+ DK points in all seven games this season, with 42.1 last week against a good Falcons defense. The matchup doesn’t matter.
• Derrick Henry – Henry is laughably priced for a strong matchup in a game where Lamar Jackson is likely back on the field but may hold back on how often he runs the ball.
• Saquon Barkley – An elite tournament option, Barkley’s salary is significantly lower than the top options but his ceiling is the same.
• Alvin Kamara – The Saints are likely going to be passing at a very high rate against a pass funnel Bucs defense and Kendre Miller’s injury likely leaves Kamara on the field in a workhorse role. He should be heavily involved as a receiver with touchdown upside in a sneaky good game environment.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Safe Spaces

Safe value is the enemy of first place. Every week, the field clings to players who “won’t kill them,” and every week those lineups die of boredom. You don’t win tournaments by surviving; you win by swinging. This is a weird slate, and the field will be looking for comfortable clicks in a volatile environment. Let’s find some volatility worth betting on.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

DeVonta Smith + Cam Skattebo

Smith projects to flirt with single-digit ownership, which makes this an easy “sign me up” situation. We know the Eagles usually need to be pushed before opening things up, and Skattebo can do the pushing. He’s averaged 18.8 carries and 4.3 targets over his last four games — about 23 total opportunities for those keeping score at home. $6,600 is a fair tag for that kind of volume, and Philly had a serious Skattebo-in-the-red-zone problem just two weeks ago, when he dropped three touchdowns on them. This pairing could light a fuse. Also, Cam Skattebo is an absolute animal. Arrow pointing UP.

Smith (10.3%), Skattebo (3.6%)

Jerry Jeudy + Hunter Henry

A good formula for correlation: pair two players who are low-owned and project competitively within their pricing tiers. Jeudy and Henry check both boxes. Jeudy has quietly maintained strong route participation and target share, and he’s overdue for efficiency to swing his way. Henry offers cheap touchdown equity as one of the few reliable redzone options in this offense. If this game produces even moderate scoring, their combined value could outpace far pricier pieces while giving your roster a rare ownership edge.

Jeudy (5.3%), Henry (5.6%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the fifth slate.

Picking Games

Week 8 has five games that pique my interest:

• CIN/NYJ (44.5)
• CHI/BAL (49)
• TB/NO (47)
• IND/TEN (47.5)
• DAL/DEN (51)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

BENGALS @ JETS

You won’t see this game ranked as the best game environment in many places, but I like it for DFS. All the Bengals pieces are too cheap for how the offense looked with Joe Flacco against a Jets secondary that has been torched and is going to be without Sauce Gardner, who has been their one component player in the secondary. Ja’Marr Chase is in a great spot and is currently projected to be the slate’s highest owned player, but curiously, Flacco and Tee Higgins are both expected to garner sub 10% ownership. Josh Reynolds also appears to be totally overlooked, with under 5% projected ownership. Reynolds saw nine targets last week, and if Tyrod Taylor starts (I think he will), the Jets will probably throw more than we’ve seen from them with Fields. With so many builds using Chase as a solo play and moving on from this game, Flacco + Higgins + Reynolds stacks are going to be the leverage play of the week. That same stack + Chase is also going to be relatively unowned. I’m currently favoring rosters that stack this game for my main team, and that’s why I must rank it as my top game environment of the week.

BEARS @ RAVENS

The return of Lamar Jackson changes the dynamic of this game. The entire Ravens offense has been priced down due to recent performances, and the return of Jackson makes Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers screaming values. The Ravens are the best 1-5 team in NFL history, and they know that they must go on a run to get back into playoff contention. The Bears are poor on defense and have been playing well on offense, creating a perfect atmosphere for a shootout. Rome Odunze is coming off two duds, but that’s what has kept his price in check. Ravens stacks with Odunze as a bring back or Bears stacks with Flowers as a bring back are firmly in play. I’m currently leaning into a Jackson + Henry + Flowers + Odunze stack as the start of one of my tighter builds. The idea being that the field won’t want to use Jackson + Henry together, but that they are both unpriced, and you could capture all the Ravens touchdowns in a shootout.

BUCS @ SAINTS

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 8 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. Stack SZN

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

I read through my Player Grid last night, and was struck by how many times I used the word “uncertainty.” I used that word six times in all, and that was before Saturday morning reports (right before I started writing this up) that both Lamar Jackson and Michael Penix are likely to miss this week. Talk about uncertainty!!! The Ravens’ offense was one of the only places where we felt comfort expressing a high level of certainty, and even that’s been taken away from us now.

As noted earlier in the week, the uncertainty — to my mind — doesn’t have to do with bye weeks, or with “the point we’re at in the season,” or even with all the injuries (though that last one is certainly part of things), but instead, it has to do with the way these games set up, and the specific nature of how these teams are likeliest to interact with one another. It’s just a weird slate.

On top of that, we have a pretty weak middle class of wide receiver compared to what we can often lean into at the position, and we have a handful of running backs who are not only carrying the highest price tags we have seen this year, but who are also attractive at those price tags in their matchups // game environments.

Finally, we have our first week of the season with relatively “fragile chalk” across the board. As always, “fragile chalk” doesn’t mean “chalk that can’t hit” (or even necessarily “bad chalk”). Instead, it means — most often — that we have a slate where the chalk is still “the right chalk” in the context of what the slate provides, but where that chalk is weak enough that it wouldn’t be chalk on a typical week. In other words: “Chalk that is less likely to hit than normal chalk would be.”

Throw it all together, and we have a very unique setup this week.

Xandamere >>

Lots of games/teams to target! There are a lot of high team totals on this slate, with EIGHT teams (out of 20 playing) having team totals of 25 or higher. Most of those come with pretty big spreads, leaving us to question if we need full game stacks with bringbacks (broadly speaking, we don’t, though there are some teams that are exceptions). Overall we just have a lot of choice for how we want to build this week as there are a lot of attractive spots to attack. We also, as of right now, have quite a pile of injury tags that could be relevant: 4 important tight ends are questionable, 8 wide receivers, and 3 running backs…things could get weird depending on what news we get and, importantly, when we get it. Don’t get married to any positions just yet because this slate could change a ton in the next day or two. 

Hilow >>

There are 10 games on the main slate, with the most teams we will see all season on bye in Week 8. Of those 10 games, seven games currently have a spread of 6.5 points or higher, bringing an interesting dynamic to a slate that has the highest median game total of the season. Within that outlook, are there any games that could play closer than Vegas is currently projecting? Are there any of those games that are unlikely to develop into shootouts? And are there any of those games that could vastly underperform their lofty game totals? I think the answer to all three of those questions is a resounding “yes,” making this an interesting slate to approach from a theoretical perspective. Finally, I would think around 70% of the field is likely to include one of Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, or Ja’Marr Chase in builds this week, introducing another interesting wrinkle from a theoretical perspective.

Mike >>

The unique thing about this slate to me is how many great spots there are to target, along with how many teams and situations it is very easy to simply eliminate from consideration, and all of it happening on a 10-game slate, which is relatively small by Main Slate standards. The Bengals, Eagles, Ravens, Colts, and Falcons are all in spots where they are highly likely to have offensive success. The real question becomes which, if any, of those spots truly go nuts to where it is the key to winning DFS tournaments. We saw it last week – some spots were really good, but then the Broncos went ballistic and the Chargers racked up a ton of second half points playing catch up. The Bengals should score points this week, but will they feed Ja’Marr Chase like they did in Week 7 when he went nuts in a competitive game? Will Chase Brown and Tee Higgins have “good” games, or will one of them get over 100 yards and score a touchdown, becoming an elite tournament play? Same for the Eagles – they are likely to have offensive success and with AJ Brown out things condense….but will they all just have “solid” games, will Saquon smash while the others post disappointing lines, or will they have a true eruption and score five or six TDs? You can go on for each team, but the point is that even the spots that project the best are no guarantee to truly give us special fantasy scores. 

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2. Stack SZN

The Question ::

These 10 game slates are pretty fun as it makes it a bit easier to narrow things down and if/when you hit on an elite game environment it becomes less likely that another one will match it (simply due to there being fewer other games). Last week we saw two clear spots emerge that pushed lineups to the top of the leaderboards::

1. Justin Herbert led Chargers stacks, correlated with Jonathan Taylor
2. Bo Nix led Broncos stacks, ideally without any Giants

This showed us two separate paths to winning and is a great example of why hard and fast rules shouldn’t apply in DFS – every situation is unique. With that in mind, what is your favorite “Game Stack” this week (a stack built around a QB and one to three of his pass catchers, with one or two players from the opposing team on the roster as well) and what is your favorite “Team Stack” (QB plus pass catcher(s) used without anyone from their opponent)?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

What is the right amount of contrarian to win a massively large GPP tournament? The right answer… we don’t know. But we do know the formula or the balance required to do this, most of the time. The frustrating part is that most of the time is not all the time, and therefore, since the destination is always a moving target, there is no right answer to the original question. But that’s why we play!

This season, we’ve seen what feels like an inordinate amount of the best plays put up the best scores across major slates. The best players, the underpriced ones, the ones in the best matchups, and it’s almost as if many of us, myself included, just want to go against the grain so badly here in Week 8. Completely normal to feel that way. We know there’s a balance in everything, and we know the best rosters mix and match high ownership with low ownership, tough matchups with easy ones, and sprinkle in a bit of randomness on top. But the truth is, those lineups have not won lately. Instead, the stronger combination of lineups an optimizer keeps teeing up, with the data so robust and the projections so clean, that many of us are now feeling like we should either follow the crowd or swim completely upstream against the current. I’m in the latter category. It’s just been too predictable lately. There’s no hard and fast explanation as to why, nor do I have or want to dig into the data to understand if this feeling is right, but many of the best performances over the past month have come from the players we were expecting. The expensive Jonathan Taylor, underpriced and returning Rashee Rice, the Quinshon Judkins and Rico Dowdle weeks, and so on.

This week, we’re getting into a window where randomness is due. It’s not quite regression, but it’s along the same lines. Unexpected outcomes should be more expected here, and the challenge in large-field tournaments is identifying where those performances will come from. With the obvious spots for the high-priced RBs (JT, CMC, Bijan), they are almost too rich to ignore, so building alongside or around those backs seems like a good place to land.

Falcons (Michael + Bijan + Drake + De’Von)

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Afternoon-only will be live Saturday

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback ::

• Bo Nix // Dak Prescott – Elite game environment and we know what both of these QBs are capable of. Nix has the best possible matchup, and Dak has incredible weapons. If Jaxson Dart can score almost 30 fantasy points with his supporting cast, then Dak can get us 25 to 30 as well.
• Daniel Jones – The Colts could easily score five or six touchdowns in this spot and it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario where Jones accounts for four of them.
• Joe Flacco – Flacco allows you to access the upside of the Bengals offense and passing game for a modest salary. You can pair him with Chase Brown or Tee Higgins for cheap and still afford the expensive RBs.

Running Back::

• Jonathan Taylor – He’s got a fever, and the only prescription is more touchdowns. 
• Christian McCaffrey – 19+ Fanduel points in all seven games this season, with 38.6 in George Kittle’s first game back against a good Falcons defense. 
• Derrick Henry – Lamar is back and this matchup is far from intimidating against a Bears defense that has looked good against weaker opponents recently.
• Saquon Barkley – Philadelphia finally got their offense cooking last week and that should eventually lead to a Saquon breakout game.
• Rico Dowdle – Dowdle’s salary on Fanduel is highly appealing in a matchup with the 32nd-ranked run defense in the league.
• Bijan Robinson – The biggest concern for Bijan is the game environment might keep his usual high pass game involvement in check, while also putting him at risk of losing playing time in the second half.
• Chase Brown – The Bengals are expected to score a lot of points here and to play from ahead for the first time all season. Brown could finally give us the type of production we expected when the year began.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Saquon Barkley + Derrick Henry

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• The Week 8 main slate is another 10-gamer with six teams on bye. Seven games will kick off in the early window, and three will kick off later in the afternoon. There are six home teams favored by six points or more and the Bills are 7.0 point favorites on the road in Carolina. That leaves only three games projected to be decided by fewer than six points:
  • 49ers (19.75) at Texans (22.25)
  • Buccaneers (25.0) at Saints (21.5) 
  • Cowboys (23.75) at Broncos (27.25)
• Several of the teams playing as large favorites have really strong RB options that can be considered for this week’s FD lineups, including two elite backs priced above $10k, two more priced in the low $8k range, and the slate’s most popular cheap RB option. There are also some strong RBs playing on the road and in the closer-projected games.
• The starting point for my SE/3-Max rosters this week is all about the RB position. I’ll go into greater detail on some of the strong plays and possible ownership angles below, but there are so many strong plays to account for. It will be important this week to be aware of who you are NOT playing in that specific lineup, so you can consider accounting for their team’s scoring in different ways by playing one of their pass-catching teammates or their team’s D/ST. Playing a Colts WR, TE,  or their D/ST in a lineup without JT, for example.

Running Back Approach