Afternoon-only 15.25

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 15 Overview

A five-game slate!! Good stuff. These slates are the ones that are really fun because they still have all the aspects of smaller slates that we love, but there is enough going on that it is easier to separate yourself from the crowd. This year also marks exactly one year since I topped the slate on the week that the Bills and Lions had a shootout, which is also ironic because of the Rams and Lions game projecting similarly to how that game did last year. Ultimately, five games is not simply “two more games” than we had last week. It is a 67% increase in the size of the player pool we have to choose from and creates significantly more avenues for how we build our teams. Here are a few of the things that stand out to me:

• As we saw last week, when one of our subscribers WON the $50 single entry tournament on DraftKings for the Afternoon slate with 216.36 points, a lineup made from only this slate can absolutely take down a main slate tournament. This is certainly a slate where that is in play again, and something you should consider.
• The DET/LAR game stands out to such a massive extent that it is hard not to build around it. On the aforementioned 2024 Week 15 slate, the lineup I took it down with was a Goff + ARSB + LaPorta stack with a James Cook bring-back. There were other players from that game who also did well, so a massive game overstack is in play, although the bigger issue there is the salaries involved this time around. The other main difference is that this game features TWO pocket passers, instead of Josh Allen soaking up a bunch of the scoring himself in that Bills game. 
• Ricky Pearsall might be the strongest leverage play on the slate, as he’ll probably be 4 to 8% owned (low on a smaller slate for a talented full-time player on a team that is scoring a lot), and a big game from him could end up allowing the 49ers offense to coast and leaving CMC and Kittle in spots where they disappoint.
• That being said, stacks around the 49ers offense are very interesting, as they could easily score five or six touchdowns. It would make sense to include CMC (if the 49ers score 40 points, CMC is probably doing really well), but a Purdy double without him would certainly differentiate you.
• Cheap stacks like the Saints and Titans are in play, but I lean towards keeping them on the smaller end so I can load up on more of the premium options. By that, I mean I will probably have some Tyler Shough lineups on this slate, but it will be Shough plus one pass catcher, and maybe a Carolina piece coming back….rather than the way I might build on some previous afternoon slates with two Saints pass catchers and definitely using one or two Carolina players.
• There are a bunch of cheap RBs (Chuba, Corum, Montgomery, both SEA RBs, Pollard, Neal) who have clear paths to 15+ points, and that roster construction is probably my favorite on the slate.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section: