Before we dive in, a few guiding principles. My recommendations each week are based on a mix of factors: player trends, schemes and personnel, matchup favorability, and a look towards the desert (Vegas) highlight shootout potential. Of course, and you’re all savvy so I don’t need to belittle this point, but start your studs. Every week. Don’t get cute. Players like Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, and Brock Bowers should always be in your lineup, regardless of their opponent. As a rule of thumb, these are the guys you drafted in the first five rounds. To quote Coach Moore (Draft Day): “Don’t overthink this like your dad would have.” So you shouldn’t expect to see these layups in the column unless I expect a gargantuan performance out of them.
Also, I keep receipts. Each week I’ll hit you with my record for each position from the week before. If guys I tell you to start play favorably to their expectations, I count it as a win. If they don’t, it’s a loss. Simple as that. I’ll also give you data each week that will be helpful outside my recos. Things like the matchup spectrum, where I rank all 32 teams in terms of matchups vs. positions.
WEEK 2 RECEIPTS
Week 2 was a mixed bag: I went 7-9 overall, powered by an excellent slate of sits (6-2) but undone by misses on my starts (1-7), including Jonathon Taylor (otherwise known as RB1 for the week). I nailed the fade calls at QB (2-0) and WR (2-0) – benching Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill/Michael Pittman paid off – while the RB and TE fades split (1-1 each; good read on Tony Pollard, missed on Tyler Warren). On the flip side, my start recos came up short, including Justin Fields and Kyler Murray at QB, Breece Hall at RB, DK Metcalf/Ladd McConkey at WR, and Hunter Henry/Sam LaPorta at TE. Net-net: the avoid column was sharp, the play column needs recalibration. I’ll lean harder into usage trends and roles this week to sharpen the start side while keeping the fade process intact.
Here’s my record for the week, and the year:
Week 2: 7-9
Year-to-Date: 16-16
WEEK 3 STARTS/SITS
QUARTERBACKS
Start: Dak Prescott (DAL @ CHI) A near–pick’em with one of the higher totals on the slate (DAL -1, O/U 49.5) sets up a back-and-forth script where volume stays live all afternoon. Dallas’ red-zone pass rate should keep Prescott’s TD ceiling intact. Oh. And did you see what Jared Goff just did to my Bears? Sad. Face. Emoji.
Start: Jared Goff (DET @ BAL) – Speaking of Mr. Goff. Vegas expects big points (O/U 51.5), and a road underdog tag (BAL -4.5), which hints at elevated attempts as Detroit chases late. Goff has been hyper-efficient off play-action; if the Lions’ run game stalls, the ball will be in his hands.
Sit: Matthew Stafford (LAR @ PHI) – Philadelphia’s front plus a modest total (PHI -3.5, O/U 43.5) lowers Stafford’s margin for error on the road. If the Rams condense to a shorter, ball-control plan, the fantasy ceiling plummets.
Sit: Joe Flacco (CLE vs GB) – Cleveland is a home +7.5 underdog with a low total (O/U 42.5), a market signal for a slog rather than a shootout. If the game script turns to chasing late, I give the edge to Green Bay’s defense, which has been elite through two weeks. This is volatility you don’t want in 1QB leagues.
RUNNING BACKS
Start: Javonte Williams (DEN @ LAC) – Neutral spread and a top-half total (LAC -2, O/U 46.5) suggest sustained rushing volume and multiple scoring chances. Early-down/goal-line work gives Javonte a clear path to a TD-driven week. Also. See my Dak reco on the state of the Bears’ defense. Sad. Dog. Face.
Start: Jordan Mason (MIN vs CIN) – With Aaron Jones out, Mason steps into true lead-back volume at home, giving him a clear path to 18-22 touches plus goal-line equity. In a low-40s total where Minnesota should stay on script, Cincinnati’s attention to Jefferson and Higgins should produce light boxes and a steady, friendly workload for Mason.
Sit: Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DEN) – Despite Jonathan Taylor absolutely destroying them last week, this feels like a get-right spot for Denver’s front against a rookie who hasn’t found his rhythm yet. Plus, the Chargers’ offensive line has been phenomenal in pass pro; not so much in road grading. If you start him, you’re basically betting on a goal-line bailout, and I’m out on that.
Sit: RJ Harvey (DEN @ LAC) – The talent is obvious, but this backfield remains a split. He was erased against the Colts in a spot where game script should have mattered. The carry/role distribution has been as advertised, though Dobbins seemed to have wrestled the lead horse role away last week. Harvey’s path to 15+ touches and fantasy goodness is thin at this point.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Start: Zay Flowers (BAL vs DET) – Highest total of the week (51.5) with Baltimore favored makes Flowers’ target volume and YAC profile especially attractive. I expect schemed touches early and a couple of deep shots if Detroit sells out vs. the run.
Start: Terry McLaurin (WSH vs LV) – Washington is a home favorite (-3) in a mid-40s total, a sweet spot for alpha WRs to rack up chain-moving targets with red-zone looks attached. The matchup on the perimeter favors Terry’s intermediate routes, and for some odd reason I like him this week to emerge as relevant again.
Sit: DJ Moore (CHI vs DAL) – In our Dr. Roto staff league I planted a flag I’m owning – DJ Moore > Rome Odunze. Through two weeks, I’m eating crow. Big time. While DJ has seen targets and is popping around 10 points per game, it’s Odunze who looks to be the more consistent weapon. Until he proves my draft-night stance right, I’m buying other options.
Sit: Chris Olave (NO @ SEA) – This is more an indictment of the offense in NO rather than a knock on Olave. Target volume has been immense, which should suggest a breakout, but it’s been middling so far. A tough venue with a low game total (SEA -7, O/U 41.5) caps route-to-TD odds. If New Orleans gets squeezed into a slower pace, Olave’s volume will remain empty.
TIGHT ENDS
Start: Tyler Warren (PIT @ NE) – A pick’em-style game with a mid-40s total (PIT -1.5, O/U 44.5) keeps red-zone trips in play, and Warren’s usage makes him a viable spike-week bet. New England tends to concede TE check-downs between the 20s, padding the PPR floor.
Start: T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs CIN) – Vikings are slight favorites and likely to lean on their short/intermediate game (MIN -2.5, O/U 42.5). Hock’s target share stabilizes the position in a week with limited slam-dunk spots. And with McCarthy likely out, I expect Wentz to feed him underneath.
Sit: Evan Engram (DEN @ LAC) – Engram hasn’t approached his Jacksonville-era target share, and Bo Nix hasn’t fully synced with him yet. On the road against the Chargers – who locked down Brock Bowers pretty damn well on Monday – Engram profiles as TD-dependent with a lower floor than streamable alternatives.
Sit: Cade Otton (TB vs NYJ) – Tampa is favored (-6.5), which points to a run-leaning second half and fewer late-game targets for the TE. The targets haven’t been there for Cade (with Emeka in town), so unless he bags a short TD, the yardage projection is weak.
