Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

How is it only Week 3?!

I love the NFL. You love the NFL. But if you are tapped in day in and day out, it feels like we’re at least six weeks in.

Think about some of the notable storylines and news cycles that have transpired in just two weeks (not even counting Best Ball szn): 

• Eagles and Chiefs looking like shells of themselves on offense.
• Bills and Ravens epic Week 1 battle.
• Chargers only pass now? / Justin Herbert renaissance?
• Daniel Jones’ two-game renaissance.
• Joe Burrow’s significant injury.
• Bears and Jaguars coach / QB sagas.
• J.J. McCarthy has a big comeback MNF win, has a child, then gets smoked in primetime the next week and now is out multiple weeks with an ankle injury.
• Everybody is hurt on the 49ers…again.
• Giants don’t have a quarterback, and then now they do.
• Packers look like world-beaters, and the Lions didn’t, but now do again.

As action-packed as these 14 days have been since opening kickoff, the NFL is really just at it again. It’s a long season. But every week has its own presentation. It’s one giant puzzle that comes together for some outcomes that make sense and some outcomes that don’t.

Any time I feel myself riding the waves of a given week (in reality it’s all via whatever my X algorithm tees up and/or reading the OWS Discord), I remind myself that this is just another NFL season and it’s important to always take time to “zoom out”.

We talk all the time about how random short-term events are. One-game samples can vary incredibly and one of our advantages at OWS is being able to see the bigger picture for what it is. For nearly every high-variance one-game sample, we know there’s likely the opposite outcome waiting for us on the other side. By zooming out, you can see the longer curve we’re on and recognize the normal distribution, as well as the outliers as they happen.

Said in other, more applicable ways :: it’s a little less about if you think the Giants and Cowboys will play another shootout-style game later this year, and a little more about how and why that particular game went wild last Sunday. 

It’s a little less about if you think Jordan Love can win MVP, and a little more about what would happen during the season for it not to go to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. 

And it’s a little less about if Brian Thomas Jr. will bounce back to his late-rookie-season form, and a little more about in which game.

Looking ahead to this Sunday, taking those tenets in analyzing the slate in front of us – with a longer-term mindset aware of short-term results – will be what sets your lineups apart from the field.

BINK MACHINE IS $1 THIS WEEK —> NOT A TYPO

For real. OWS Fam has been off to a great start so far in two weeks, and the Bink Machine is fundamental to what many of us do! 

For this week only, you can get Bink Machine access for just $1! (normally $19 for a week of access) with code: Bink1. Do that now, thank us in Discord or on X later.

WEEK 3 :: ANGLES

What a slate we have, what a slate we have. 13 games total as we’re in the pre-Europe, pre-bye week kickoff season for another week+ and we’re back to our standard TNF, SNF, MNF schedule from here on out. 

A 13-game slate brings a few more variables to the table – which we’ll get to in a second – but look at the island games this week, and you’ll have to get your Bills (31-point implied total!), Ravens (28.5), Chiefs (25.5), and Lions (24.5) wins this week in Showdowns, season-long, and Best Ball, as they are off the main slate. The Monday night matchup, in particular, should be plenty of fun.

On the Sunday main slate, the short here is we have nearly every other team playing. When 13 games are on tap, it’s a necessity to draw some lines in the sand. To cross off games or teams, to reduce player pools, and try to identify your path and focus on the rosters you are playing instead of those you are not.

We always stress the importance of game environments here, and we saw last week how one game environment can really carry the mail (side note: an NFL game has roughly between a 5-6% chance of being decided in overtime, which sounds low but that translates to one out of every 17 to 20 games. With 13 games on one slate, these odds increase, and so far in 2025, we’ve only had one game go to overtime of 32 total.) Which game environments could pop this week and become part of the statistic? (Hitting the over and/or reaching overtime?) In my opinion, there is a top five:

Cowboys (25.75) // Bears (24.75): The clear game of the week from an offensive firepower perspective, though the Bears have not shown much other than a Rome Odunze breakout thus far. Ben Johnson orchestrated a 47-point drubbing in Dallas last October for what that’s worth, but more importantly, he now has something to prove in his second home game in Chicago. If there’s a game for Caleb to win the fans back, it’s this one. Dallas, of course, much prefers to play the way they did on offense at home against the Giants in Week 2, not how they looked on the road in Philadelphia in the opening week. Passes should be plentiful, with both defenses still looking for answers.

Rams (20.5) // Eagles (24): The talent on the field may outweigh the real-life expectations here as the Rams have a low implied total on the road, and the Eagles haven’t shown much interest in being aggressive on offense in two weeks this season. That said, when you bring together guys like Stafford, Puka, Davante, Kyren, Hurts, Saquon, AJB, and DeVonta, there surely can be points scored.

Raiders (20.5) // Commanders (23.5): Contingent on the health of Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers, but should they suit up, this game could go underowned relative to outcomes. The Commanders defense is not the Chargers defense for one, and they still can’t block so well up front, so the signs point to the Raiders passing game looking much better this week. If Daniels plays, despite limited mobility, we should still have a chess match between former coach (Pete Carroll) and understudy (Dan Quinn). 

Broncos (21.5) // Chargers (24.5): Really any game involving the Chargers right now needs to be considered, as they’re the clear league leader in pass rate over expectation (PROE) with Herbert throwing five touchdowns in two games. Sean Payton and Bo Nix have shown the ability to match that attitude depending on the games, and the last matchup with these two produced 61 points total (34-27 LAC win). Despite the strong defenses, with low impact rushing attacks on both sides (sorry J.K. Dobbins), a higher combined passing volume can lead to fantasy success.

Saints (17) // Seahawks (24.5): The Saints lead the NFL in neutral pace and rank third in PROE, so despite the 17-point total, it’s safe to say they’ll be chucking it. Seattle wants to run and play defense to win, but a healthy total and at home we could see a Sam Darnold ceiling game ala the few he had last season in Minnesota.

You’re wondering about the other eight games on the slate now, right? Me too. Well, there’s always a case to be made in any game (don’t let me tell you right or wrong), but if we play this slate a hundred times, ask yourself about the next few games here as to when they would be the one you had to have…Texans (21.5) // Jaguars (23.5) with a struggling Texans offense on one side, and a struggling Trevor Lawrence against a fierce Texans defense on the other…Steelers (23) // Patriots (21.5) feels like the matchup that both of these offenses has already enjoyed one of their few 30+ point games this season…Cardinals (21.25) // 49ers (23.75) could be in the mix with both of these teams sitting at 2-0, but with Fred Warner on Trey McBride and Mac Jones on the other side, it could be thinner…Packers (24.5) // Browns (17) could be on the list as well, but uninspiring is one of many synonyms for how the Browns offense looks this season, and it’s not likely to get better against Green Bay.

The Bucs, Falcons, and Colts also all sport high totals , and we’ll get some backup quarterback matchups that we know and love this week. Can Jake Browning take the Bengals to 35 points? Sure. Can he do it consistently? Probably not. So here’s what I will leave you with: don’t forget to zoom out this week.

Build differently and in your own unique way. We’ve seen some things through two weeks. We’re going to see some more this week. What’s going to jump off the screen on Sunday’s slate? I can’t wait to find out.

See you in the Bink Machine (Bink1 for just $1!), on the site, in Discord, and at the top of the leaderboards this week!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max.

WEEK 3!

I ended up pausing my watching of the Eagles // Chiefs game last night to see who KC was playing in Week 3 (I did this when thinking, personally, that Kelce actually looks noticeably better this year than he did last year, and that once they get a soft matchup, he’s going to have a good shot at smashing; unfortunately for me, the Chiefs are not on the Main Slate — but if you’re playing Sunday night, I personally think Kelce has smash potential; also, the Chiefs still look like a really good football team, and the narrative surrounding them after close losses to really good teams could have people feeling sour on them, in a spot where they should be able to do well on both sides of the ball), and after opening up the slate to see who Kansas City was playing, I ended up just going through the entire Main Slate and recording a 90-minute, impromptu voice note covering my early, game-by-game thoughts on the slate. I then ran the voice note through an AI transcription tool I use for my voice notes, and I’ll be cleaning those up and posting them over the next couple hours.

The first game is ready to go, below.

Now, onto the second.

Steelers at Patriots

I don’t think that the Steelers offense is quite clicking or fully figured out yet, but I think they have…They’re somewhat evenly matched with the Patriots, and I think they’ll be able to move the ball and score points. And I think the Steelers defense looked good. It was a couple drives and a handful of isolated plays that allowed the Seahawks to appear to do well in that game. And without the kickoff fumble recovery touchdown, that’s a totally different game too. It was 14-14 heading into the 4th quarter. It wasn’t like the Seahawks were moving up and down the field. The defense looked better. I think it’s a tough spot for Drake Maye.

It helps that the game is at home and Josh McDaniels will have a good plan for this matchup, but they’re probably going to need to turn this into a lower scoring game.

Bengals at Vikings

A tough spot for Browning against the Vikings defense, and then you would expect the Vikings to be run leaning. So it’s actually a great spot for Jordan Mason in that regard, at least from a volume and role perspective. Justin Jefferson is still capable of getting 10 or 11 or 12 targets from Wentz. He can still put up a big game, but little mini correlations of Jefferson and Chase is really the only thing that stands out to me as anything worth doing, on like 5% of builds, just in the context of how I would expect this game to play out. Maybe Mason climbs up my player pool. Otherwise, the price tags don’t really match the situations of these pass catchers, and the Vikings’ defense is too good for me to be excited about the likelihood of Chase Brown accessing ceiling.

So there may be some strategy components that lead me down different paths, but that’s my starting point for how I’m seeing this one.

Colts at Titans

I think it could actually end up being high scoring. (I’ll get back to that in a moment.) The Titans have a good defense, and the Titans are conservative on offense, while they’re going against a Colts defense that…Anarumo is going to have tricks up his sleeve to confuse a young quarterback. So I’m unsurprised to see a total of only 43.5, and it should be expected that this is not a high scoring game. The Colts defense should be one of the more attractive units.

But…I’m obviously a believer in Shane Steichen, and I’ve been saying since August that I thought Daniel Jones would be the starter and would do really well in this offense, and you add that to what we’ve seen so far against a poor Dolphins defense but then an excellent Broncos defense as well, and you just get the sense that there are timelines on which this game or this offense would do well in this spot. And if they can lead this game forward, like…the Cardinals got out to a big lead against the Panthers and then they sort of went into “don’t let them hit big plays, and wait for them to make a mistake” mode. And Bryce Young didn’t make mistakes because it was just a little bit too easy and he was able to march the field and score multiple times; and there’s opportunity for things to play out like that, or just for Cam Ward to do well against whatever Lou Anarumo is throwing at him. Like, the Titans have run outs as well. So this is not likely to be the spot where we get the Cam Ward breakout, or the Elic Ayomanor “had to play him at his price tag” week. But it’s within the realm of possibilities, and I want to at least think about accounting for those possibilities, or think about how I’m going to go about accounting for those possibilities on my rosters this week.

Texans at Jags

Texans at Jags is almost unplayable. The Texans defense is so good; the Jags offense has not looked like it’s ready to produce yet; and the Texans have downgraded to an offensive scheme that is not doing a good job scheming guys open and that hasn’t fixed the offensive line issues from a pass blocking standpoint or from a standpoint of passing off stunts and communicating — the same problems they were having last year. And they’ve essentially downgraded the talent on the line, thinking it would be a better “unit.” And so far the talent is lower than last year, and the unit is as bad as last year, and the scheme isn’t getting guys open downfield the way that Bobby Slowik was. At least that’s how it all looks to me.

And this Jags front four is really good, and has been playing really well, and the Jags back end has been playing well. Now, the Jags got torched by Ja’Marr Chase, and…Nico is not Ja’Marr Chase, but he’s one of the first guys below that tier of the top two or three or four wide receivers — though his specific strengths and what makes him difficult to stop are in a lot of ways different from Chase’s specific strengths and what makes him difficult to stop. So I could see the Nico game here, and there is a bizarro world in which the Jags do well here against this great defense. They put it all together, it clicks. Everybody gets on the same page. Trevor Lawrence makes his step forward in this offense. It all happens here in this game. But it feels like what’s likelier, in a game that is important in the context of this division that the Colts are probably going to stay in control of (coming off a game against the Titans), is there’s going to be some big punches thrown, sure, but in terms of these coaches thinking about how they want to win this game, there’s also going to be an understanding of how good both of these defenses are, and that you don’t want to give the upper hand and be fighting uphill. In terms of how the coaches will be thinking about how they want to play this game, I don’t think they’ll see it as a back-and-forth, lots-of-points-being-scored game, more than likely.

Now, having said all that, this does seem like the type of game where you could get a random blow up.

It’s probably not from the Texans rushing attack.

I don’t see it being the Jags keeping the Texans off balance with their own rushing attack and having a big game that way — though that’s probably within the realm of possibilities. It’s just not the way I like to attack the running back position. So it’s harder for me to see it playing out that way. And I tend to weigh “matchup” at the running back position more heavily than I do certain pass catcher spots or situations. So it could happen, but it’s the sort of thing that I’m content in my DFS play with just not being there when it does.

But probably the likeliest way for us to get one of these is for one of these offensive coordinators to find something that’s working and to hammer that for stretches of the game.

So for the Texans side, because the Jags aren’t scary talented on the back end, it could literally be Nico Collins that the Texans figure out a way to get him going and the Jags just aren’t able to stop him. There’s also potential for Campanile to throw his defense at stopping Nico Collins, recognizing that the run game is not a huge concern and if you can take away Nico, it’s going to be much harder for them to beat you. So that would be where a secondary pass catcher from the Texans would have potential to pay off.

On the Jags side, probably the “defy logic” type of play where it’s just like, “Oh, they’ll throw Stingley at Brian Thomas Jr., but maybe this is where he breaks out with Trevor Lawrence when that hasn’t really happened through their entire time together yet.” And it’s going to happen eventually. Brian Thomas Jr. is so good, he’s going to have a huge game at some point. But this is an unlikely spot for it.

So then it becomes Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown, Brenton Strange.

I guess just the physicality of the Texans makes me feel like it’s less likely to be Brenton Strange running open over the middle when A) they’ll need some blocking help, and B) the middle’s a tough place to go against the Texans in terms of just the hits that you’re taking and what you’re having to fight through all game.

So Dyami Brown would seem to be the one that I can see the most clearly where it’s like, look, the Jags could easily still have 250 passing yards here, and if there’s a busted play, there could be more than that. So If Brian Thomas Jr. Is getting slowed down, then you have these yards going somewhere, and given the routes Travis Hunter has been running so far, it would seem unlikely to be him. So then you have Dyami Brown and Parker Washington, and this is the type of random situation where you could see one of these guys getting a random target spike to eight or nine targets and everybody’s chasing them next week when they come back down to where they will typically be. I don’t know yet how attractive any of this is, because we’re kind of going down less likely paths in terms of getting tournament winners. The ownership would have to line up for these stories to make sense to chase down, but it’s at least interesting to keep in mind at this point in the week.

Falcons at Panthers

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW ::

We’ve made it to the portion of the season where cheap, expansive chalk begins to take hold. Injuries are starting to shape the league, and by extension, weekly slates. Four backup quarterbacks are starting on the main slate, two running back injuries are leaving their backfields pointing towards a workhorse state, tight ends are dropping like flies, and there are numerous wide receiver injuries to pay attention to. Welcome to the chaos.

Beyond that, there is one clear and away top expected game environment on the slate while all 12 other games have game totals between 41.5 and 46.0, as of this writing. What happens to the slate if the Bears don’t show up against the Cowboys? The fact that it’s a 13-gamer increases the likelihood that we see another game environment go off. What happens if the Cowboys are pushed and their game turns into the must-have game? Is there another way to access value away from the running back position? These are the things we need to be thinking about as we prepare for Sunday.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK ::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

KENNETH WALKER

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Walker’s underlying metrics have been pretty good, to be honest. 13.0% explosive run rate, 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt, 5.43 yards per carry, and a low 34.8% stuff rate. He should now have the backfield mostly to himself with Zach Charbonnet listed as doubtful. The Saints are no pushover (as we’ve talked about leading up to their first two games), but they’ve still allowed 2.36 yards before contact per attempt and a middling 4.2 yards per carry. That said, and like most backs in the league, Walker needs 100 yards and multiple scores to return a top-tier GPP score.

JORDAN MASON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Like Walker, Mason should be left with most of the backfield work for the Vikings in the absence of Aaron Jones. The Minnesota offensive line has struggled to start the season, blocking to just 1.77 yards before contact per attempt, while the Bengals have ceded just 1.97 yards before contact per attempt and 3.7 yards per carry. Mason is objectively a worse on-paper play than Walker.

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. McCaffrey leads the league in XFP/G (24.1) on the backs of 17.5 carries per game and 8.5 targets per game through two weeks. He should remain the focal point of a San Francisco offense missing numerous key contributors in a non-prohibitive divisional matchup. It’s hard to poke holes in this one.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. JSN ranks third in XFP/R and seventh in XFP/G in one of the top receiver roles in the league. His 60.6% air yards share leads the league, as does his 41.1% target share and 0.44 TPRR, of pass-catchers with 10 or more targets. Again, we can’t really debate the strength of the play on paper.

ROME ODUNZE

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Odunze ranks seventh in air yards share, 11^th in target share, and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns with three, accounting for every receiving touchdown the Bears have scored this season. And he’s somehow still priced below teammate DJ Moore. Odunze is the clear alpha on this team, argue with a wall. Oh, and he happens to play in the game with the highest total this week.

CHALK BUILD ::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

• Jake Browning will start for Joe Burrow for the eighth time on Sunday against MIN. In his previous nine games playing more than a 50% snap rate, he is averaging 263 passing yards on 32.5 pass attempts per game for 18.7 FP/g. That includes last week when he threw for 251 yards and 2 TDs on 80% of the snaps. Here is how the primary pass-catchers have performed with Browning under center: 
  • Joe Mixon (RB in 2023 for the majority of Browning’s snaps) averaged 18 FP/g (seven games), a +1.75 point increase from his 26 games with Burrow. He caught three balls per game for 27 yards, also a boost from his per-game averages with Burrow.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has seen a slight decline with Browning, despite catching 10-of-11 targets last week after Burrow left. His yards have dropped from 91 to 78 p/g, but it’s his TD rate that has affected his overall production (-27%). He caught 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards after Browning entered the game.
  • Tee Higgins has seen the biggest fall off with Browning, as you would expect for the WR2. His targets per game drop by 33%, and while that hasn’t affected his fantasy production as much (-11%), that is due to a higher TD rate in that small sample size. I would expect that to normalize with Chase’s lower TD rate (with Browning) as the sample increases this season.  

• Jayden Daniels is also OUT, which requires us to look at $4K Marcus Mariota in a revenge matchup with the Raiders. He came in for Daniels last year in Week 7, playing 87% of the snaps in a plus matchup against CAR. He completed 18-of-23 passes for 205 yards and two TD passes, along with 34 rush yards (19.6 FP/g). He then entered for Daniels in Week 18 (although it’s hard to trust Week 18 stats, I will provide them anyway) and posted another “Daniels-like” performance (161 passing yards, 56 rush yards, 3 total TDs). This game grades well from a pace & play-calling perspective, with both teams in the top-12 in overall pace and neutral pass rate (LV is 4th and WAS 7th in pass rate over expectation, per Kevin Cole). Las Vegas has allowed 18.3 DK points per game to Justin Herbert and Drake Maye in their first two games, despite Herbert only attempting 27 passes last week (LV has allowed 78% of their yards against the pass, 3rd-highest).

• Caleb Williams is the classic “real football” vs. “fantasy asset” example once again this season, as he can be a tough watch, ranking 29th in Accuracy Percentage. That compared to being the QB6 on the DK Main Slate in terms of Fantasy Points per game (21.1 FP/g), while being the 12th most expensive ($5.6K). That should make him very popular on a slate full of backup QBs and without many “stackable” games. The data checks out on the matchup: after getting embarrassed by Russell Wilson last week (450 yards, 3 TDs) and run all over by Jalen Hurts in Week 1 (14-62-2), Dallas is allowing the 2nd most FP/g to QBs (8.32 yards per pass attempt/29th). Williams is 8th in rushing attempts among QBs (5.5 per game), averaging 4.25 FP/g from rushing yards alone (excluding his rush TDs, as they are not as predictive).

RB

• Jonathan Taylor is leading all Colts players with an 89% route participation. That puts him 2nd among all RBs and an absolute smash play at $7.2K on DK. The one argument against him in the past (on the full PPR site) was a low route participation and target share (54% in 2023, 69.8% in 2024), if he is going to be among the lead leaders in routes, the catches and receiving yards will follow, which combined with his elite rushing production will have him priced up with CMC and Saquon. He is averaging a ridiculous 4.33 yards after contact per carry (1st among RBs with 12 or more carries). TEN is allowing 24 FP/g to opposing backs on 142 rush yards per game (5.3 yards per carry to RBs), setting up JT for yet another 100+ yard rushing performance (6 in his last 10 games leads all players). 

• Chase Brown has struggled to start the season, with CIN’s offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted line yards gained (per FTN Data). I don’t think the blame can be put on him. He is averaging 2.43 yards per carry on 2.43 yards after contact. MIN has been tough on opposing QBs (5.02 yards per pass attempt/5th), while allowing solid production to backs (5.06 yards per rush attempt/26th). They have allowed the 2nd-highest Percentage of Rush Yards Gained Against (51.4%/31st). All that said, I need his price to adjust before rolling him back out in any high-dollar lineup. With Browning under center, and this offensive line playing so poorly, I can’t play him when JT is only $300 more. 

• I wrote up J.K. Dobbins last week, and no one seemed to care. His ownership was non-existent as he led Denver again with 14 carries (76 yards and a TD). Now, in a revenge game, he is projected to be 1-2% owned again. After facing KC and LV, I don’t think we should assume this LAC rush defense is a unit to stay away from, especially while missing Khalil Mack (LAC allowed RBs 4.61 yards per carry last season/24th). Dobbins is 4th among qualified RBs in fantasy points per rush attempt.

• Another staple of this article so far has been Travis Etienne (10% breakaway rush rate, 2nd), who has another great matchup against the HOU rush defense that just got gashed for 169 yards by TB (HOU, 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed, per FTN Data). I wasn’t planning on writing him up again, but I had to throw this in when I saw he is projected to be around 3% on DraftKings. 

WR

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Week 3 with ELITE usage (.44 targets per route run/1st), which is not reflected in his price. This should make him very popular, which should not scare you off. While at FTN Daily, our DFS projections expert (Alex Blickle) did extensive ownership data back-testing, which revealed “chalk WRs,” especially those in this mid-price range, tend to hit (and smash) at an above-average rate. Per Alex, “Mega chalk WRs (usually $6K and up with 30%+ ownership) smash at the highest rate and fail at the lowest rate of all DFS plays. WR is the only position where this phenomenon occurs — where the highest ownership does equate to the highest likelihood of success.”

• Deebo Samuel enters as the WR7 on the DK Main Slate (20 FP/g). He is 11th in Receiver Target Separation  (2.39 yards of separation per target), which is significantly better than Terry McLaurin (.54 yards of separation per target). Deebo has consistently feasted on zone coverage, leading SF WRs in that stat over the years, which makes this a great matchup for him (LV is 2nd in zone coverage rate this season). He has a team-leading 35% target rate against zone coverage and averages 2.55 yards per route run against zone in his first two games with WAS. With his star QB on the bench, his ownership should be minuscule. He should also see a rushing boost from the loss of Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels.

• Keenan Allen is one of the most mis-priced players on DK this week at $4.7K. His ownership will be around 15-20%, which is very reasonable considering his usage. Allen is 17th in target share (28%), averaging 8.5 targets per game, and running 50% of his routes from the slot, which will allow him to avoid Patrick Surtain. In addition, if Surtain does shadow a player as he did in Week 1 with Calvin Ridley, my assumption is that he will go to the red-hot Quentin Johnson on the outside or the “alpha” Ladd McConkey, which could allow Allen to see very little of Surtain in coverage. LAC is 1st and DEN 5th in PROE after two weeks, giving this game sneaky shootout potential 

TE

• Juwan Johnson deserves another week in the article after doubling down on his Week 1 TE1 usage (5-49-1 in Week 2 with a 95% route participation rate). He lands in the best matchup of the season with SEA, allowing 8-64-0 to PIT TEs after 8-44-2 in Week 1 to SF. Johnson leads the team (tied with Chris Olave) with a 15% first-read target share, 2nd in overall target share, and 1st in RZ target rate.

• Kyle Pitts is 2nd on ATL with a 20% target share and has a healthy 88% route participation this season, up from 78% in 2024. He is 8th in WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) among all TEs after converting his first 11-of-13 targets from Michael Penix this season. That has him averaging 10.3 FP/g on DK without the benefit of a TD. CAR has been beat up by TEs out of the gate, allowing 6.5 receptions, 94 rec. yards, and .05 TDs per game (3rd most FP).

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on YouTube, or on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.2K

Carson Wentz
Travis Etienne
Jordan Mason
Justin Jefferson
Elic Ayomanor
Chris Olave
Juwan Johnson
DJ Moore
Jaguars

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

No players or situations stand out to me as true Blue Chips this week.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“March In”

Rashid Shaheed + Juwan Johnson

Story:

“The Saints keep marching”

Why It Works:

No team in the NFL played fewer players on offense last week than the Saints. The Saints played 15 players (no other team played 16; a few played 17 players; most teams played 18+), and two of those players played 11 or fewer snaps. This is not an offense that rotates pieces. Juwan Johnson and Chris Olave are on the field all the time, and Shaheed is on the field most of the time. On top of this, the Saints are playing fast and creating volume. Since there aren’t a lot of different players on the field, there aren’t a lot of different places for this volume to go. Shaheed and Juwan cost $8.5k combined, and have averaged 17.5 targets per game. Imagine paying $8.5k for a low-owned wideout seeing 17.5 targets per game. Imagine paying $8.5k for a low-owned wideout who is averaging 28.1 DK points per game (scores of 24.9 and 31.1 so far). Ja’Marr Chase averaged 24.6 DK points per game last year. And with these guys, you cover two spots with this chunk of salary, while almost certainly getting better production on your “cheap guys” than most of the field will be getting. If the Saints are able to successfully execute this hurry-up offense in the noise in Seattle, this block can position us to have a solid floor of production with tons of salary left over.

How It Works:

This isn’t a block that’s designed to “win us a tourney,” but it can put us ahead of the field. Others will either A) be working with less salary than we have, or B) be getting less production than we’ll be getting from a couple cheaper options. Doing something unique with this extra salary can add extra value (for example: double-pay-up at RB, or double-pay-up at wideout), but no matter what, this is a valuable starting point that can separate our rosters from the field.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“March In II”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

JJ + Wentz

Justin Jefferson is $7.5k. Carson Wentz is only $4k. If JJ does enough in this spot to be worth playing at his price tag, there’s a pretty good chance his QB, at only $4k, is doing enough to be worth playing at his price tag.

This rule says, “on at least 40% of rosters with Justin Jefferson, play Carson Wentz” (‘on at least 40% of rosters that include the locked player, make sure to include both players from this pool’).

If the rest of the slate shaped up differently, this rule could be 100%; but given what else is available (see the next rule), I went with 40% here…

JJ + Others

…Because here’s the thing :: Wentz could score 22 DK points at only $4k while producing a tourney-winning outing from JJ, and he could still not be the optimal way to go, as the clearest “upside spot” on the slate is Cowboys // Bears, where neither QB is particularly expensive. There is a world in which Caleb Williams scores 34. There is a world in which Dak scores 38. In those worlds, the strong score from Wentz still leaves you wishing you had one of these QBs. It makes sense to account for this possibility by also forcing some JJ builds with these guys.

After recording my Solo Ship show with Squirrel Patrol, I also added Mariota to this list. As Squirrel said, ‘What if JJ has a big game because Wentz is only throwing to him, and then Mariota runs in a couple scores.’ This is a really sharp angle as well.

Finally, I currently have these rules at “40%” because other stacks I’ll be targeting this week also include cheap QBs. Yes, if JJ posts a tourney winner, we’re probably getting a really nice score from cheap Wentz. But we could also get actual tourney-winners from other cheap QBs, so I want to account for that possibility this week.

Vikings D // O

This rule says, “On rosters that include the Vikings D, do not play any of JJ // Wentz // Hockenson.”

I don’t often like to play my offensive pieces with their defense anyway, but there are spots (for example: the Bucs) where I’m okay with it. In this spot, however, my hypothesis is that if the Vikings are sacking Browning, picking him off, scoring defensive touchdowns, etc., the Vikings, with a “backup QB,” will call things more conservatively on offense, thus making it tougher for us to get a tourney winner from one of these pieces.

On the flip side (uniquely), I don’t feel we need to play Bengals pieces alongside these Vikings. Yes, we want the Bengals to play well and keep this game competitive in order for O’Connell to remain balanced and aggressive; but given the matchup the Bengals have and the price tags the Bengals are carrying, this doesn’t have to mean “tourney winner” emerging from that side of the ball. I may have enough Wentz // JJ this week that I’ll slip in some Chase and possibly even Tee // Brown; but that won’t be a requirement for me on my Wentz builds.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Caleb Williams || Dak Prescott || Carson Wentz || there are others I could also potentially pull onto tighter builds, but this is my core focus at the moment (if pulling someone else on, Marcus Mariota would probably be the first place I would be looking; though I could also pull one of those lower-likelihood stacks (explored above) onto tighter builds this week)

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back::

• Christian McCaffrey – There is plenty of value available on the slate and CMC continues to churn out good games so far this season. He has yet to truly break one open, but at home against this Cardinals defense that plays right into his strengths seems like a perfect spot for an eruption.
• Bijan Robinson – Bijan may very well be the best running back in the game right now and he is facing what is very likely the worst run defense in the league. Some things are relatively simple. There is the off chance this plays like last week’s Panthers game, where they fell behind so fast that Arizona’s skill players didn’t need to do anything. 
• Kenneth Walker III – He looked like he was back to his old self in Week 2 and now gets the backfield to himself as Zach Charbonnet is listed as doubtful. Matchup, talent, volume, home favorite, and moderate salary.
• Jonathan Taylor – JT plays basically every snap for the Colts and faces a Titans defense that has been gashed so far this year, ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. Quarterback Daniel Jones has three 1-yard touchdowns, which, if they had gone to JT, his salary would be around $8k already.
• Saquon Barkley – This is a player who ran for over 500 yards against the Rams last season. He has been relatively quiet so far this season, but the Rams are a legitimate threat to Philly and Barkley is always a threat to bust the slate.
• Javonte Williams – The Bears defense is really struggling and Williams is dominating the backfield usage for Dallas so far this season. Javonte has looked much better this season than he did in 2024.
• Jordan Mason – Bell cow usage at home in a dome against a Bengals defense we expected to be weak this season. He carries some systemic risk in this spot, but clearly has paths to a very strong game.

Tight End ::

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Take What the Slate Gives You

Every slate writes its own script, but Week 3 went full Tarantino — chaos, blood on the floor, quarterbacks dropping like extras. Value is popping up like whack-a-mole, which is perfect timing with some expensive studs sitting in prime spots. Sure, we’ll jam in the best-on-paper plays — everyone will — but the real trick is pairing them with leverage pieces and building a story that holds water. DFS isn’t prophecy; it’s improv jazz with spreadsheets. That marriage of math and creativity is what makes our game great.

Football is weird. Some of the chalk is going to fail — it always does. And since we need the near-nuts in MME, we can count on a few of these “must plays” not delivering the score we’re looking for. The good news is this slate gives us ways to grab a couple of the best spots while putting ourselves in position to benefit if the rest of the chalk misses. That’s TOURNAMENT DFS 101, and this week it’s written in bold, all caps, double-underlined. This can be done roster by roster (I love handbuilding!) or as the guiding approach to your portfolio of 20 or 150.

I’ll be playing most all of these guys, but on rosters where I’m not, I’ll be trying to punish those who are.

Jordan Mason

I think we’ll see Mason land around 30% ownership once the cards flip on Sunday.

• Fade Mason, play $2400 Bengals DST – That’s a story of systemic failure for the Vikings offense and another potential anti-Carson Wentz mutiny brewing. If that script hits, Mason’s chalk turns into rubble.

• Fade Mason, play Justin Jefferson – Instead of eating 30% ownership on a chalky RB, pivot to a future Hall of Famer at a third of the ownership. Jefferson projects around 11%, he’s still wicked good at football, and Wentz can’t really be worse than J.J. McCarthy was in his two starts… can he?

• Play Mason with Vikings DST – This story is about game script falling exactly where Minnesota’s staff wants it. Brian Flores’ defense confuses Jake Browning, sacks and turnovers pile up, the Vikings slam the brakes on PROE, and Mason gets his 30 touches.

Mac Jones/Ricky Pearsall/Jake Tonges/Marvin Harrison Jr.

What if chalk Christian McCaffrey and Trey McBride don’t find the end zone? Maybe the whole game fails… or maybe the production just comes from off the beaten path. In the Milly Maker, freaky shit happens — we’ve all seen it. So let’s click the cheap QB nobody wants (thanks for the Mariota/Wentz gifts), stack him with inexpensive, low-owned players who actually have roles in the offense, and run it back with a likely beneficiary of McBride’s ongoing end zone allergy. Yes, it’s a very “Sonic” play. And yeah, I’ll catch some shit in Discord given the 99% chance it flames out — but if it hits? That’s how you leapfrog 50,000 lineups in one shot. Further freakiness with Jauan Jennings — or his fill-ins if his shoulder keeps him out — is very much on the table.

Be Pushed or Fold

Some offenses this week look like they’d rather turtle up than take shots — unless their opponent forces the issue. That’s got me strongly considering:

• Rams across from any piece of the Eagles passing game

• Bengals across from Vikings pass catchers. 

• And (gulp) Browns across from Jordan Love and his receivers

Sure, Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave (Tucker Kraft appears to be on the wrong side of a Q tag) are cheap enough that if they catch four balls and/or stumble into the end zone once, they won’t bury you. But to actually smash — especially as part of a Jordan Love stack — we’ll need Joe Flacco and the Browns to surprise this Packers defense, make some noise early and open things up.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on my lineup building process while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single-entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs, and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the third slate.

Picking Games

Week 3 has seven games that pique my interest:

• DAL/CHI (50.5)
• DEN/LAC (46.5)
• ATL/CAR (43.5)
• IND/TEN (43.5)
• HOU/JAX (44)
• CIN/MIN (42.5)
• NO/SEA (41.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds. I think this is one of the most difficult weeks of picking games for DFS that I can remember. It’s rare for a 13-game slate to have 12 of those games with a total that falls between 41.5 and 46.5.

Cowboys @ Bears

This game is far and away the most appealing on the slate. The total is a touchdown higher than most of the other games, and from a DFS standpoint, it’s easy to target. The Cowboys offense is concentrated between Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. Despite being a concentrated offense, with an excellent matchup against a Bears defense that just gave up 52 points, none of the Cowboys (other than Lamb) are particularly expensive. Even Dak Prescott is affordable. Add in that Rome Odunze is one of the most mispriced players on the slate, and the game stacks build themselves. It’s such a superior game environment to the rest of the options, I think it’s viable, and currently, my main lineup strategy is to over-stack this game. Right now, I’m playing with Dak + Williams + Lamb + Ferguson + Odunze game stacks. I’m not sure I’ll end up going that heavy on one game, but it’s a near lock that my primary stack will come from this game on my main lineup.

Broncos @ Chargers

After the top game environment, things get unclear quickly. The Chargers are leading the league by a mile in pass rate over expectations (PROE), which has made everyone in their passing game viable. The Broncos have an excellent defense, but Justin Herbert is also good, and with no clear games to attack other than Dal/Chi, I’m willing to bet on the Chargers offense winning. If the Chargers can successfully throw, that will force the Broncos to respond with increased aggression. The last two times these teams met, they combined for 61 points, and I could see this game playing out in a similar competitive fashion. I’m going to stack this game from the Charger side. A Herbert double stack with Sutton coming back is the most likely way I’ll try and stack this one. This game could also turn into a defensive struggle in an important division game. The variance here is high.

Falcons @ Panthers

I want to love this game for DFS but the objective data is putting up red flags. That’s because the Falcons have been a run-oriented defensive team to start the season. Bijan Robinson is a premier play, but outside of him, the rest of the game has question marks. The Falcons haven’t been throwing down the field, which limits Drake London’s ceiling. Even so, his price is generous enough that it’s hard to keep him off my rosters. I’m probably going to play London on at least one of my tighter builds and end up kicking myself for it on Monday. Kyle Pitts is finally seeing above average usage. The Panthers have been knocked around by TEs, and I’m leaning towards using Pitts on one of my tighter builds, possibly as a one-off. Tetairoa McMillan is also too cheap for his role and talent. He’s going to be a part of at least one of my tighter builds. I’m lying to myself and thinking I’m only going to use Robinson, London, Pitts, or Tet as one-offs on rosters that stack other games. The reality is that I’ll probably dedicate one of my tighter builds to stacking this game.   

Colts @ Titans

The Colts offense has been a revelation through the first two weeks of the season. Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Warren have all outperformed expectations. The Titans have been walloped (31^st in DVOA) by the run and held up against the pass (13^th in DVOA), which is likely to drive the Colts to the ground game. Taylor is a premier RB on the slate, but it’s hard to trust any of the passing game players in what might end up being a low volume affair. The Titans are yet to score 20 points in a game, and if they can’t fight back, this game becomes difficult to stack. Both teams’ primary pieces are cheap enough that I’m leaning towards using this game as a stack on one of my tighter builds, but it wouldn’t shock me if the only stat line you want at the end of the game comes from Taylor.

Texans @ Jaguars

Speaking of games I want to love for DFS, this is a game that if it had been on the slate Week 1, I’d have almost certainly said I’d be playing game stacks. What’s changed? The Jacksonville offense has struggled to get Brian Thomas going (he is WR6 in usage and WR52 in fantasy points. A discrepancy that has cost some of us a lot of winnings in the first two weeks.) Despite seeing 19 targets to start the year, Thomas has done nothing with them and looked like he was afraid to get hit in Week 2. After the game, the team revealed that he had a mysterious wrist injury no one knew existed. I’m not sure what is going on with Thomas, but he doesn’t look like the same player we saw last year. It’s unlikely a date with Derek Stingley and the stout Texans defense is going to be the game he breaks through. Behind Thomas, it’s anyone’s guess who is going to contribute each week, especially when we can’t even be sure how many snaps Travis Hunter will see on offense. On the Texas side, Nico Collins could always break the slate, but the Texans O-line is so bad, it hurts the entire offense. There is enough talent on both sides of the ball to stack this game, which, heaven help me, will probably lead to me having this game stacked on one of my tighter builds. I must like pain.

Bengals @ Vikings

The game I’m referring to in my head as “The battle of the bastards” is set to see two backup QBs square off after tough injuries to starters with high expectations. If the starting QBs were playing, this game would likely have one of the highest totals of the week and many players would be chalk. With both starting QBs out? This game has a low total, and everyone should draw light ownership. So, ask yourself, what if the backup QBs are good? We have a decent sample size with Carson Wentz as a starter. Enough to know that he’s capable of playing at an NFL level. In fact, he might even be an upgrade over what we’ve seen from J.J. McCarthy. Jake Browning filled in admirably as a rookie in 2023 for Joe Burrow. There is also a chance he has improved after several years in the league. Browning is probably more average than bad, and the market is currently reacting like he is not good at football. Game stacks aren’t going to be common from this game, but it’s on the fringes of making my tighter builds.

Saints @ Seahawks

This game has a low total, but the Saints play at a blazing pace, which is always going to keep their game environment relevant for DFS. The other nice thing about this game is that the offenses are extremely concentrated. The Saints use Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, and Alvin Kamara. No other skill position players get meaningful work. The Seahawks have been splitting their backfield (Zach Charbonnet might miss this game) and targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. These are two of the easiest offenses to predict where the ball is going, in a game that is going to have a lot of plays. The main thing holding this game environment back is how strong the Seahawks defense has been at the start of the season. The strength of the Seahawks defense, paired with the inefficiency of the Saints offense, makes this game a hard one to trust in using a full stack. However, this game is loaded with excellent one-off players. I don’t know if I’ll use a full game stack, but players from this game will be scattered across my tighter builds.

Key Values

Hunter Renfrow ($3,700)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 3 Topics

1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

2. The Pendulum Swings

3. Floating Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

For the first time this season, a weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

Oh, man! – so much.

From my Angles Pod notes:

1) Literally the maximum number of games we can have on a Main Slate (outside of Week 18), with 13.

2) Nine teams implied to score 24 to 25.5, with several other teams close to that mark and no teams really pulling away (albeit with each of these, of course, somewhat unique against the others).

3) Five backup quarterbacks starting (which isn’t even to mention the running back injuries that are impacting the slate)

Another thing not in my notes for the Angles Pod :: still quite a few wideouts who are underpriced relative to where they’ll be later in the year.

And on top of all that, one game that clearly has a better shot than any other to shoot out…but that is, by no means, as slam-dunk to do so.

Let the games begin!

Xandamere >>

Let’s go with “what happened to all the quarterbacks?” It’s been a rough season for QB injuries so far and that’s also introducing a lot of values, with not one but TWO minimum-priced QBs (on Draftkings, at least). Let’s also add some RB value thanks to injuries to Aaron Jones and Zach Charbonnet and all of a sudden this slate is looking like a real stars and scrubs build. We also have one game that’s going to attract a ton of ownership (CHI/DAL, duh) and a few other high-end plays in good spots attracting ownership due to all of the value (CMC, Bijan, JSN, Puka, McBride) and this slate is shaping up to be our first extremely chalky slate of the year. We can have a high degree of confidence in how a large chunk of the field is going to build, and when we know what our opponents are likely to do, that makes our job easier to figure out how to do something differently. 

Hilow >>

This is the largest main slate of the 2025 season so far. There are 12 games with a game total between 41.0 and 46.5, with the lone outlier being everyone’s favorite Cowboys versus Bears. Week 1 was dangerous because we knew very little. Week 2 was dangerous because we thought we knew more than we did. Week 3 is closer to Week 2 than it is to Week 1 in that we don’t have a large enough sample to draw sweeping conclusions just yet, but the majority of the field is likely to overweight what we’ve seen to this point. That creates an interesting dynamic for the slate. There are likely many teams that haven’t shown us their true colors just yet, and there are many games that are experiencing suppressed projections because of it. I want to be relentlessly hunting for upside on a slate like this, and if you tuned into Searching for Ceiling earlier today, you likely understand what I mean by that statement. Ditch what we think we know about this slate – where are the spots where true ceiling can develop? 

Mike >>

It is so early in the season and we have multiple teams with fluctuating quarterback situations that alter what pricing/value looks like on the slate as well as make it difficult to know what to expect from their offenses, their teammates, and the overall game environments they are dealing with. The CIN // MIN game, for example, is one that entering the season we would have looked at with wide eyes as a smash spot – Joe Burrow is one of the best in the league against the blitz and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzes like a mad man regardless of opponent, while the Bengals defense appeared to be a mess and everyone was excited about J.J. McCarthy taking the Vikings offense to another level. Now, we have Jake Browning at QB for the Bengals and Carson Wentz for the Vikings. Both seem likely to do OK in this spot, but the chances of a “game of the year” type shootout appear far less likely. Add in the injury to Aaron Jones, which puts Jordan Mason in play as the likely best RB value on the slate in that same game, and there is a lot to think about just in that one game. In addition, we have Justin Fields out with a concussion and Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels in doubt. The really unique thing about all of this is that it is happening so early in the season. It is common later in the year to have a few teams with things in flux, but we know a lot about most of the teams by then. This week, we still know so little about a lot of these offenses (or at least we should be less confident in our assumptions now than we would be later in the year). This leaves us in a spot on a massive 13-game slate where there is really uncertainty across the board and that makes for a volatile mix at this point in the season.

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2. The Pendulum Swings

The Question ::

We start the season with Week 1 and all of our preconceived notions about teams and situations. Then we head into Week 2 where we have to weigh the initial thoughts on these teams with what we saw on the field in Week 1. Now we head into Week 3, where it is the first time we have multiple data points to compare and we can start to get a feel for what some of these teams look like. For example, the Giants offense looked atrocious in Week 1 against the Commanders and elite in Week 2 against the Cowboys. The big difference was Washington getting consistent pressure on Russell Wilson while Dallas did not.

Are there any other teams/players that stand out to you as spots where the data we have gathered so far is telling you something about their outlooks? This could be a team that has performed well due to a soft schedule but has some underlying issues waiting to be exposed…or teams who have thus far been disappointing but you attribute it in large part to matchup and/or game environment….or something like the Giants example where you can see that a certain team will be very matchup dependent.

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

If you’re a GPP-chaser like me, you come to the realization that you may never hit the big one. I’ve talked about it plenty in this space, about how irrational any get-rich-quick scheme is, yet like many of you, I take some of my hard-earned money each week and dabble a bit in the “GPP lotteries.” You know, the massive, mega tournaments with tens or hundreds of thousands of entries. And every Sunday, you can find me at 12:45 pm ET as confident as ever, like this is the week it will happen. I’m delusional, in a good way, though. If I’ve learned anything in DFS over 10+ years, it’s that I may never allocate the time necessary to truly grind out a profit. I got involved in this in the first place for the constant chance of being that one mistake each week, the lucky and skilled mistake that somehow, someway gets the cards to break right. To play any other way just feels too risky and too wrong for my makeup.

But I’ve realized you’ll nearly always get out what you put in when it comes to DFS. Time, research, and effort – it’s why the primary contributors on this site are so sharp and have seen sustained success. I’d be the first one to admit that I actually learn the most about DFS from my “peers” (not peers, these dudes know their shit on this site) week in and week out, and then I try to take those learnings and teach myself literally while I am writing sometimes.

I wrote in the Week 2 Angles about not chasing your tail from Week 1. Sticking to your gut and instincts, analysis, and lineups from Week 1 and seeing them through (e.g., not overreacting). I wasn’t alone in this sentiment, but I felt that not chasing your tail was a little more catchy. Then I went out and did some tail chasing of my own.

My lovely “cover boy” from Week 1 was Russell Wilson. He unabashedly flopped in the opening week, thus bringing my lineups featuring him and Malik Nabers down with them. Then Week 2 happened, and with 0% Giants, the Wilson-Wan’Dale-Nabers stack took down most tournaments! Have I learned nothing? Maybe. But I was locked in on a different game last week, and that’s just what happens sometimes. On a positive note, I did continue to play Jameson Williams in Week 2 (and talked about it in Willing to Lose, how you should just play him every week!), and he helped cash my only lineup. Now here we are in Week 3, I’ll continue chasing the big one. What I have learned is that if I do stick the landing, that’ll be my retirement from DFS on the spot. But until then, I’m going back to my Week 1 article here with none other than…

Sam Darnold + KW3 + Jaxon + Rashid 

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 3 Overview

Week 3 brings us another four game slate and there are a ton of dynamics that make this specific slate very intriguing. The DAL/CHI game is the most exciting game on the Main Slate and will be very popular there, making it the clear top game environment on this short slate. I believe DEN/LAC has more shootout potential than people will realize. Both teams have good defenses, but both staffs also know each other well and the game should be competitive. We have seen recently how games can appear mundane and then turn the jets on late when they are close and teams start getting aggressive down the stretch. On the same note, ARI/SF has what appears to be concentrated offenses and a lot of fun angles to play with. Finally, the Seahawks and Saints are set for a potentially really fun game script (New Orleans plays fast and Seattle’s defense is dealing with injuries in the secondary) while everyone in that game is very cheap. Overstacking that game could be really fruitful, as most people try to pick the correct one or two pieces and move on to building around the more exciting DAL/CHI game. Finally, there are two things to consider from a big picture perspective on this slate.

• Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are on this slate and they are likely to be near the highest owned players on the Main Slate.
• The premier game environment of the Main Slate (DAL/CHI) is on this Afternoon slate as well.

This provides an opportunity for us to build rosters for this slate, but putting them in the Main Slate contests as a way to be unique (very few people will just use a player pool from these four games on their Main Slate rosters). It also provides an opportunity for us to fade one of those massive chalk spots on one of the slates while going all-in on it on the other slate. For example, you could play a lot of KW3 on the Main Slate, but fade him completely on the Afternoon Only slate. He will likely have over 50% ownership on the Afternoon Only slate, so fading him there provides massive leverage if he gets hurt, fails, or two or three other RBs just outperform him on the short slate.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

Quarterback::

• Caleb Williams // Dak Prescott – This game has the potential to blow the slate away and the salaries involved are too ripe to pass up.
• Kyler Murray – Kyler is running at a higher rate this season than he did in 2024 and this is a spot where he could be pushed to his ceiling. As usual, stacking him is direct and clear with MHJ and McBride.
• Cam Ward – He is going to bust out at some point. Why not this week when everyone is focused on the DAL/CHI game and the backup QBs?

Running Back::

• Ashton Jeanty – DFS 101 says the sixth overall pick being written off after a rough first two games might still be live for some big games. His salary is insulting for his talent and this could be a good matchup to get back on track.
• Christian McCaffrey – There is plenty of value available on the slate and CMC continues to churn out good games so far this season. He has yet to truly break one open, but at home against this Cardinals defense that plays right into his strengths seems like a perfect spot for an eruption.
• Kenneth Walker III – He looked like he was back to his old self in Week 2 and now gets the backfield to himself as Zach Charbonnet is listed as doubtful. Matchup, talent, volume, home favorite, and moderate salary.
• Jonathan Taylor – JT plays basically every snap for the Colts and faces a Titans defense that has been gashed so far this year, ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. Quarterback Daniel Jones has three 1-yard touchdowns. If those go to JT, everyone would be tripping over themselves to play him.
• Saquon Barkley – This is a player who ran for over 500 yards against the Rams last season. He has been relatively quiet so far this season, but the Rams are a legitimate threat to Philly and Barkley is always a threat to bust the slate.
• Jordan Mason – Bell cow usage at home in a dome against a Bengals defense we expected to be weak this season. He carries some systemic risk in this spot, but clearly has paths to a very strong game.
• Bucky Irving – The Bucs quietly have the second-highest team total on the slate. Bucky is their feature back and is one of a handful of RBs with 4+ targets in both games this season. At only $7,400 and in a great matchup, Bucky could get things rolling against the Jets.

Wide Reciever::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. + CMC + Ricky Pearsall

Maximus (Steve Kleisath) is a Fanduel focused player who specializes in smaller-field contests under 1,000 entries

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The 350K Sun NFL Snap Tournament is alive and well for another week as an option for your FanDuel large field play, with 50% of the field gettiing paid and $50,000 up top. 20 entry max at $4 a team is great practice and always the possibility of a year-changing win if the variance matches the skill of the builds.

Week 3 presents us with some potential instant value off of Week 2 injuries, in particular at the QB and RB positions. Fanduel pricing on QBs is flexible enough that we don’t need to drop that far down to backups. At the RB spot, there is a clear candidate that will be mentioned. Let’s dive in and dig…

QB

Caleb Williams – $7,100

Caleb Williams has averaged a little over 20 FD points through two games this season. That would be good for almost 3X his salary this week and he now faces a Dallas Cowboys secondary that got torched at home by Russell Wilson to the tune of 450 yards and 3 TDs. Williams continues to develop chemistry with Rome Odunze on the field and in Ben Johnson’s system overall. He even had a designed run carved out against the Lions last week, showing some rushing versatility. At home this week, there is no better time than now to navigate the Bears to their first win of the season and put up some fantasy point goodness for our rosters.

RB

WR

Tetairoa McMillan – $6,000

With Adam Thielen shipped off to the Minnesota Vikings, and not much behind him in the receiving corps for the Carolina Panthers, Tetairoa McMillan has been the focus for QB Bryce Young and recorded his first 100-yard receiving game in just his second pro appearance last week. He will go up against a division rival this week, in the Atlanta Falcons, whose best CB, A.J. Terrell, is “week to week” with a hamstring injury and questionable to play in this one. McMillan’s price has barely moved and is a bargain for a clear alpha WR1. His generous salary at $6,000 can help you afford a bring back like Bijan Robinson if stacking this game. Or play him as a value “onesie” to free up salary in your roster building for other areas of the slate. Wheels up for “Tet”.

TE

Tyler Warren – $5,600

The Indianapolis Colts offense has looked better than expected under Head Coach Shane Steichen and QB Daniel Jones this season. Tyler Warren brings a lot to the table in their receiving corps to help with this progress. Like a swiss army knife, Warren has lined up all over the field. As a traditional TE, a slot wide receiver, and even in the backfield in fullback mode, creating mismatches and unpredictability for defenses. Warren has had healthy target counts by tight end standards, of 7 and 9 targets in Week 1 and Week 2. With this usage, the touchdown regression is coming. Watch his injury status as he returned to limited practice Thursday from a toe issue, but his salary at $5,600 has literally not moved and is a steal to get TE1 talent on your team this week and going forward.

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• With no “extra” primetime games this week, Week 3 provides a massive 13-game FD main slate with nine early kickoffs and four later games. Despite having the most options of the season available, some of the best offenses (including BUF, BAL, and DET) are off the main slate. Some other offenses will be significantly impacted by QB injuries. Even on this huge slate of games, there are only five healthy QBs, seven RBs, and seven WRs priced above $7,500 on FD this week.
• As strange as it may sound, the Bengals at Vikings game with its modest 42.5 implied point total, is one of the key starting points to my process this week based on the pricing of some of the players in this game and the overall dynamics of the Week 3 slate.
  • This game will feature dueling backup QBs with Jake Browning ($6,800) starting for the Bengals and Carson Wentz ($6,000) for the Vikings.
  • With veteran RB Aaron Jones on IR, Vikings RB Jordan Mason ($5,800) is projected to have a massive role as a home favorite and will be one of the most popular FD plays of the week, regardless of position.
  • Bengals RB Chase Brown ($7,800) and WRs Ja’Marr Chase ($9,600) and Tee Higgins ($7,200) are all probably overpriced based on their overall offensive environment without star QB Joe Burrow; all three project for very modest ownership as a result.
  • Unlike the Bengals, I’m actually curious to see if the change to a veteran QB like Wentz might provide a short-term boost to Vikings WR Justin Jefferson ($8,900). With his elevated price and QB situation, he projects to be pretty low owned as well. TE T.J. Hockenson ($5,800) hasn’t looked like himself through two games. I’m considering him in a potential Wentz lineup to see if he bounces back, but not as a one-off play.
  • Both of these D/ST units are in my pool for the week, especially in lineups without Mason or other skill position players from these teams.

Running Back Approach